bluewave

Yeah, the bay side of the barrier island is generally lower than the ocean facing side. The high parts of Atlantic Beach only had some water in the streets and halfway up the front lawns. A few blocks away in the LB West End there was 5 feet +of water in the lowest spots.The LB Presidents Streets neighborhood had numerous houses that didn't get any flooding inside. Lido Dunes did pretty well along with the Pt. Lookout beach side.

Several of the houses flooded out in Sandy were rebuild and elevated on stilts. But the program was underfunded and many people couldn't afford to do it. Properly funding that project would have been more cost effective.Houses that didn't get raised will still have to collect on flood insurance again in a future flood. http://liherald.com/stories/long-beach-to-expedite-ny-rising-payouts,89787

It's too late for that now. But portions of the Long Beach barrier island that were build high enough didn't experience flooding in Sandy. The Long Beach barrier island was actually a collection of several smaller islands. It took a major dredging operation over 100 years ago to build a single island with fill. But the elevation was still left too low in many areas.

That was one of the reasons that the beach rebuilding project never got going back in the late 90's and early 2000's. Even the dunes in the West End were too small to survive Sandy. They got flattened during the evening high tide. But the larger Lido dunes held and the houses immediately behind them avoided any major flooding.

The big dune construction project is finally getting started in Long Beach. It will be interesting to see how the new beach looks with a continuous dune in front of the boardwalk. http://www.nan.usace.army.mil/Missions/Civil-Works/Projects-in-New-York/Jones-Inlet-to-East-Rockaway-Inlet-Long-Beach/

Chuck, the lower NAO in some of the forecasts is a result of more east based blocking closer to Europe. Pattern back closer to the CAB and Beaurfort is actually one of the strongest July reverse dipole patterns we have seen. Notice the best ridging is focused over Siberia. The models actually have near record low 500 mb heights near the Beaufort for this time of year.

What a reversal from 2012. All the coldest departures in the NH were focused near Greenland and Labrador in June. Right around the extreme cold pool south of Greenland with the slowing AMOC. after months of a persistent atmospheric circulation pattern, Greenland is having its least surface ice loss in decades while NW Europe has extreme sun and heat... persistent extremes are an expected signature of #climatechange@PolarPortal #ukheatwave twitter.com/severeweatherE…pic.twitter.com/lsXraH5nuK 6:16 AM - 3 Jul 2018 https://mobile.twitter.com/Climatologist49/status/1013986099335753733/photo/1 But Churchill Falls (Labrador) saw its coldest June by a 2C margin; the monthly temperature was 6C below normal. Persistent major circulation anomalies are to blame. pic.twitter.com/Iz5QPeXuBr 8:43 AM - 3 Jul 2018

Part of the pattern which produced the record -AMM for June. Wow - the AMM is the most negative it has ever been for June (-2.5 sigma for June), and the third most negative value since 1948. Meanwhile, the PMM is large and positive. The spatial SST structure is "as AMM as it gets".aos.wisc.edu/~dvimont/MMode… pic.twitter.com/h2VApVlZGi 1:14 PM - 2 Jul 2018

Another result of the ridge being so far north. A swath of dust from the Sahara just gave Houston and DFW their worst air quality days (PM2.5) in at least 20 years bit.ly/2tNd4yqpic.twitter.com/YiD1quFkSz 11:45 AM - 2 Jul 2018

The 500 mb height reversal near the Beaufort in June has been as extreme as it gets. 2007 to 2012 featured the highest sustained heights on record for a 6 year period. 2013 to 2018 has seen a dramatic decline in heights with 2013 registering a lowest single year record.

While this has resulted in a slowing of the rate of sea ice decline relative to the 2005-2012 period, it's still at a level well below the typical late 1990's and early 2000's ice. The extreme Arctic amplification and circulation changes began when the September average extents began to regularly fall below 6 million sq km. In 50 to 100 years, that may turn out to be the more significant number than when the Arctic first went technically ice free.

That one got interrupted by a cold front and showers. Just goes to show how difficult it is to get a 20 day or greater heatwave. While the summer of 2010 was dry, we didn't have the intense drought over the Upper Plains like 1988.

That summer 1988 record 20 day heatwave at Newark was one of the weirdest summer events of all time. July 1988 was the wettest on record at Newark with 9.98" of rain. The 20 day 90 degree streak from 7/29 to 8/17 only had .06 of rain. The .06 of rain was the driest 7/29 to 8/17 ever at Newark. The increase in summer clouds and moisture since then is probably the one thing preventing the 2010's from making a run a 20 days of 90 in a row.

We are moving right back to a reverse dipole pattern in early July. This has been our typical 2013 to 2018 summer pattern. As long as this continues, we may be able to finish September with an NSIDC average extent not too far from 5 million sq km.

This is beautiful. People on this forum would probably pay a higher fare if they were guaranteed a view like this. https://mobile.twitter.com/JonCarvin/status/1011375230491807746/video/1

Must be some really pretty sunrises and sunsets in the Caribbean. We've seen big dust outbreaks before, but the past week is easily a top 10 dustiest for the tropical Atlantic going back 15 years. #hurricanespic.twitter.com/mUFUzmqUdo 7:57 PM - 28 Jun 2018

This never happened on our last week of school. That cold pool south of Greenland won't let up. Just a snowy ride on the bus on the last week of the school year. June 26, 2018 in #Gander. #nlwx #nltraffic pic.twitter.com/hvlDHUeLjh 3:58 AM - 26 Jun 2018 from Gander, Newfoundland and Labrador https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2018/06/26/its-nearly-july-but-this-poor-city-in-canada-just-woke-up-to-snow/?utm_term=.a3366107331b The thing that makes this storm unique is how late in the month it came. According to Rodney Barney, a meteorologist at Environment Canada, Gander reported 2 centimeters of snow at 9:30 a.m. on Tuesday, which was a record for accumulating snow so late in the season. The previous record was June 14, 1976. Snow depth records date back from 1955, according to Barney. https://www.worldclimateservice.com/sst/

A rare colder than normal month in that region in what has been a sea of record warmth. Technical: ongoing cool wx at Utqiaġvik, Alaska is the largest negative departure of the 30-day running daily standardized temp anomaly since late summer 2014. Illustrates nicely the control by sea ice on Arctic coastal air temps. #akwx #Arctic @Climatologist49 @CinderBDT907pic.twitter.com/PK380UAnXW 9:02 AM - 23 Jun 2018 1pm Friday, Utqiaġvik (Barrow) Alaska hits 40F (4C) for the first time this year. This ties with 1955 as the fifth latest “first 40” in the past 98 years. #akwx@Climatologist49 @CinderBDT907 2:21 PM - 22 Jun 2018

Also a pretty impressive slow down in the melt near Alaska for late June. Sea ice extent around Alaska now running close to the long term average for late June, (passive microwave data from @NSIDC). Early melt in the srn Chukchi Sea has stalled farther north and meltout in the Beaufort Sea is only slowly spreading west. #Arctic @akwx @Climatologist49 pic.twitter.com/d3rbwGXJvV 6:58 AM - 25 Jun 2018

Yeah, CPOM may be close if July and August continue with more low pressure over the Arctic like June. First set of forecasts for the September Arctic sea-ice extent have been collated. Median forecast (4.6M sqkm) is slightly lower than last year’s observed value. The @CPOM_news forecast from @UniRdg_Met is one of the larger forecasts at 5.3M sqkm. arcus.org/sipn/sea-ice-o…pic.twitter.com/kgaROTK7Yr 2:19 PM - 23 Jun 2018

It's as if the historic summer Greenland melt in 2012 really slowed the AMOC. Shortly after that, the cold pool and strong vortex couplet became a persistent feature south of Greenland. The colder waters there seem to go along with more low pressure over the Arctic during the summer. It's pretty much the opposite of the warmer SST's and the summer Arctic mega-dipole from 2007-2012. It will be interesting to see how long this pattern persists. https://www.carbonbrief.org/atlantic-conveyor-belt-has-slowed-15-per-cent-since-mid-twentieth-century https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/summer-2012-brought-record-breaking-melt-greenland

Looks like the HadGEM1 is doing a great job so far. Very impressive considering the paper was first published back in 2012. https://www.the-cryosphere.net/7/555/2013/tc-7-555-2013.pdf Mechanisms causing reduced Arctic sea ice loss in a coupled climate model Abstract. The fully coupled climate model HadGEM1 pro- duces one of the most accurate simulations of the historical record of Arctic sea ice seen in the IPCC AR4 multi-model ensemble. In this study, we examine projections of sea ice de- cline out to 2030, produced by two ensembles of HadGEM1 with natural and anthropogenic forcings included. These en- sembles project a significant slowing of the rate of ice loss to occur after 2010, with some integrations even simulating a small increase in ice area. We use an energy budget of the Arctic to examine the causes of this slowdown. A negative feedback effect by which rapid reductions in ice thickness north of Greenland reduce ice export is found to play a major role. A slight reduction in ocean-to-ice heat flux in the rele- vant period, caused by changes in the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) and subpolar gyre in some integrations, as well as freshening of the mixed layer driven by causes other than ice melt, is also found to play a part. Finally, we assess the likelihood of a slowdown occurring in the real world due to these causes.

It's remarkable how the Oct-May strong blocking ridge pattern over the Arctic finds a way to shift in June. This has been a very reliable reversal over the last 6 years. Notice how the strong Oct-May Arctic blocking pulls back to Siberia/Bering just in time for summer. This seasonal circulation change seems to be the only thing keeping the 2012 record out of reach for the time being.

More favorable for melt, but nothing too extreme looking.The dipole ridge won't be anywhere near as strong as the ridge that was located over Siberia this month. Check out the record heat under that ridge. 31°C (89°F) is mighty impressive at 73N latitude along the Arctic Ocean.twitter.com/EKMeteo/status… 5:21 PM - 23 Jun 2018

September averages have remained in a very narrow range since 2013. It appears to be near the lowest amount of variability since 1980 for a 5 year period. 2017....4.87 2016...4.72 2015...4.63 2014...5.28 2013...5.35