bluewave

Today looks like an overperforming downslope day. HRRR has low 90s for areas that get into the NNW flow.

Pretty extreme rainfall rates in Harrison. Looks like they picked up 1.46 in just 14 minutes. Total of 2.79 in a little over an hour. https://mesowest.utah.edu HSNN4 Harrison 13:16 66.0 64.2 64.9 94 0.0 3.0 29.84 29.86 2.79 2.79 OK 13:02 65.0 62.9 63.7 93 0.0 0.0 29.85 29.87 2.79 2.79 OK 12:47 66.0 63.0 64.1 90 0.0 1.0 29.86 29.88 2.73 2.73 OK 12:31 67.0 63.0 64.4 87 0.0 5.0 29.86 29.88 1.87 1.87 OK 12:17 73.0 64.6 67.3 75 5.0 10.0 N 29.87 29.89 0.41 0.41 OK 12:03 76.0 66.7 69.6 73 0.0 3.0 29.83 29.85 0.00 0.00

Looks like another warmer than average July coming up. Models have a 590+DM heat dome building over the Plains and Midwest. So that will probably be our first extended stretch of widespread 90s across the region.

It will be interesting to see if the Euro is correct about the slower backdoor cold front on Friday. The model actually has upper 90s to our south. We were discussing the unusual WAA from SE Canada ahead of the front.

Yes. It was the first 71 degree or warmer June at JFK not to reach 90 degrees.

We’ll need some help from convection later for several stations to avoid their driest June since 2010. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Total Precipitation Missing Count 2020 1.45 1 2019 6.00 0 2018 1.87 0 2017 5.29 0 2016 2.40 0 2015 5.90 0 2014 4.41 0 2013 8.74 0 2012 5.02 0 2011 2.74 0 2010 2.37 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Total Precipitation Missing Count 2020 1.76 1 2019 5.46 0 2018 3.11 0 2017 4.76 0 2016 2.60 0 2015 4.79 0 2014 4.26 0 2013 10.10 0 2012 2.97 0 2011 3.25 0 2010 2.20 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Total Precipitation Missing Count 2020 1.10 1 2019 4.89 0 2018 3.60 0 2017 4.38 0 2016 2.24 0 2015 4.80 0 2014 3.69 0 2013 8.16 0 2012 4.19 0 2011 3.85 0 2010 1.67 0

First June that Newark averaged 74 degrees or warmer and didn’t have a monthly maximum temperature above 93 degrees. Newark is currently at the 10th warmest June on record. But the monthly maximum of 93 degrees is the coolest for all 74 degree or warmer years. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Max Temperature 1 1994 77.8 102 2 2010 76.2 98 3 1993 75.8 102 4 1943 75.4 102 5 2008 75.3 99 6 1984 75.0 97 7 1971 74.8 94 8 2005 74.6 97 - 1981 74.6 98 - 1973 74.6 95 9 2011 74.5 102 10 2020 74.4 93 - 1987 74.4 96 11 1989 74.3 96 12 1999 74.2 99 13 1991 74.1 97

Many people in this part of the country have never experienced hail before. So they just associate anything frozen falling from the sky with winter. Plus they don’t follow the weather as closely as we do.

Reflectivity with the hail to 68 DBZ.

First June since 2009 with no 90 degree days at JFK. The 89 today was the high for the month. Very few warm offshore flow days with the onshore flow dominating. Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 2020 89 1 2019 91 0 2018 91 0 2017 94 0 2016 92 0 2015 90 0 2014 91 0 2013 91 0 2012 97 0 2011 93 0 2010 98 0 2009 83 0

Warmest June at EWR and LGA since 2010 and 2011. But the monthly maximum temperatures were much lower. Fits with the highest June maximum temperatures going to our north. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Max Temperature 1 2010 76.2 98 2 2011 74.5 102 3 2020 74.1 93 4 2013 73.3 96 5 2016 72.9 91 6 2014 72.8 92 7 2019 72.7 93 - 2017 72.7 99 8 2012 72.4 99 9 2018 72.1 96 10 2015 72.0 93 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Max Temperature 1 2010 76.0 96 2 2020 75.8 93 3 2013 74.0 96 4 2017 73.6 101 - 2016 73.6 90 5 2018 72.9 96 - 2012 72.9 98 6 2019 72.8 94 7 2011 72.7 97 8 2014 72.5 88 9 2015 71.3 92

A backdoor warm front on the 3rd followed by a backdoor cold front on the 4th.

My guess is that the climate has become too wet here to allow for another 1960s style drought. That was something like a 500 year drought based on the tree ring study. Ever since 2003, our dry patterns end before we get to any serious water restrictions. https://blogs.ei.columbia.edu/2012/09/06/epic-wetness-in-the-greater-new-york-city-region-and-what-broadleaf-trees-have-to-say-about-it/

First storm of the day firing on the sea breeze front in Nassau.

Based on the OKX 12z sounding, storms should remain strong to severe right down to Long Island.

While the June high temperature departures have been well above normal at EWR and LGA, there hasn’t been an excessive number of 90 degree days for June. The +2.5 high temperature departure at Newark at 83.6 is the 10th warmest. The +3.5 at LGA and 83.6 is 5th warmest. But there has been a record number of 88 degree days at LGA and 2nd place so for at Newark. LGA also recorded the 3rd highest number of 89 degree days for June. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature = 88 Missing Count 1 1993 7 0 2 2020 5 3 - 1934 5 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature = 88 Missing Count 1 2020 4 3 2 1994 3 0 - 1987 3 0 - 1986 3 0 - 1976 3 0 - 1965 3 0 - 1961 3 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature = 89 Missing Count 1 2013 4 0 2 1962 3 0 3 2020 2 3

The NAM convection placement has been off recently. Too bad they had to suspend the HRRR v4 and delay implementation. Those 24 to 36 hr convection forecasts seemed to be pretty good when the forecasts were on COD weather. Would be nice if they could develop a new CAM run off the ECMWF.

Heavy downpour here in SW Suffolk. Pleasantly surprised to see the echoes intensify once east of NYC. Winds also picked up with gusts to 35 mph at the Wantagh mesonet.

The 95+ degree high end temperature potential has been muted so far by the pattern. But the dry conditions have allowed the maximum departures to beat the minimums. EWR max...+2.5 min....+1.2 LGA max....+3.6 min.....+4.0 NYC max....+2.6 min.....+2.1 ISP max....+3.2 min....+1.4 JFK max..+2.0 min....0.0 BDR max...+2.7 min....+2.2 HPN max.....+2.8 min......+0.3

I believe this is the first year that CAR and BTV beat both the May and June high temperatures at EWR and LGA. So far, it’s the warm season of onshore flow and the strongest heat going to our north. CAR May...91 Jun....96 BTV May....95 Jun.....96 EWR May....86 Jun....92 LGA May....86 Jun....93

The most impressive heat records continue to our north. PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 504 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2020 ...PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT... TODAY, JUNE 26, 2020, MARKED THE 11TH CONSECUTIVE DAY WITH A HIGH OF 80 DEGREES (F) OR WARMER IN CARIBOU, MAINE. THIS BREAKS THE RECORD FOR THE MOST CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH A HIGH OF 80 DEGREES OR WARMER IN CARIBOU. THE OLD RECORD OF 10 DAYS WAS FROM AUGUST 14-23, 2015. WEATHER RECORDS IN CARIBOU DATE BACK TO 1939. THERE HAVE BEEN A TOTAL OF 12 DAYS SO FAR THIS JUNE WITH A HIGH OF 80F OR WARMER. THIS IS THE MOST 80 DEGREE DAYS IN THE MONTH OF JUNE SINCE 2005 WHEN THERE WERE 12. THE LONG TERM AVERAGE (1981-2010 AVERAGES) IS SIX 80+ DAYS DURING THE MONTH OF JUNE. THE ALL-TIME RECORD IS 13, WHICH WAS SET IN 1976. THERE HAVE BEEN 4 DAYS THIS MONTH WITH A HIGH OF 90F OR WARMER, WHICH IS ONE SHY OF THE RECORD OF 5, SET IN 1949. CARIBOU AVERAGES JUST TWO 90 DEGREE DAYS EACH SUMMER. THE ALL-TIME RECORD IS 11, SET DURING THE SUMMER OF 1944.

I think long range models may continue to underestimate the omega block with the IO standing wave pattern.

Driest Jan1st to June 25th in NYC since 1995. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Total Precipitation Jan 1 to Jun 25 Missing Count 2020-06-25 15.37 0 2019-06-25 27.28 0 2018-06-25 24.23 0 2017-06-25 27.36 0 2016-06-25 17.36 0 2015-06-25 19.27 0 2014-06-25 28.35 0 2013-06-25 29.03 0 2012-06-25 17.26 0 2011-06-25 28.20 0 2010-06-25 27.65 0 2009-06-25 24.16 0 2008-06-25 23.26 0 2007-06-25 31.72 0 2006-06-25 25.73 0 2005-06-25 21.19 0 2004-06-25 20.36 0 2003-06-25 28.23 0 2002-06-25 16.90 0 2001-06-25 21.49 0 2000-06-25 21.00 0 1999-06-25 20.89 0 1998-06-25 35.18 0 1997-06-25 19.20 0 1996-06-25 25.62 0 1995-06-25 15.28 0

We need some help from any convection on Saturday to make it out of the top 10 driest Junes. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Precipitation Missing Count 1 1949 0.02 0 2 1999 0.59 0 3 2020 0.98 6 - 1894 0.98 0 4 1901 1.00 0 5 1880 1.14 0 6 1966 1.17 0 7 1898 1.25 0 8 1906 1.26 0 9 1965 1.27 0 - 1908 1.27 0 10 1873 1.28 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Precipitation Missing Count 1 1949 0.03 0 2 1999 0.50 0 3 2020 0.76 6 4 1988 0.94 0 5 1965 1.14 0 6 1978 1.30 0 7 1986 1.43 0 - 1963 1.43 0 8 1966 1.44 0 9 1954 1.48 0 10 1979 1.51 0