bluewave

At least somebody is getting record snowfall.

The February record for the western half of CT was set just 10 years ago. At that time we were setting records for the -AO instead of the +AO now.

Parts of CT could challenge their all-time February record lowest pressure on Friday.

The Pacific Jet continues to set records.

Long Island could see higher gusts than that since it will be closer to the strongest LLJ near frontal passage. The warmer surface temperatures should really steepen the low level lapse rates for good mixing along and behind the cold front. Euro has highs in the low 60’s.

Areas around NYC are on track for their first sub 980 mb pressures since 10-29-17. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=18&network=NJ_ASOS&zstation=EWR&sdate=2017%2F01%2F01&days=1000&var=mslp&dpi=100&_fmt=js

At least Philly can brag that they beat 72-73. Time Series Summary for Philadelphia Area, PA (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30 Missing Count 1 1973-04-30 T 0 2 2020-04-30 0.3 86 3 1998-04-30 0.8 0 4 1950-04-30 2.0 0 5 2012-04-30 4.0 0 - 2002-04-30 4.0 0 7 1931-04-30 4.1 0 8 1919-04-30 4.5 0 9 1951-04-30 4.6 0 10 1992-04-30 4.7 0

Really extreme pattern coming up for the North Atlantic and surrounding regions.

The 50.8 +13.3 December. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2001-2002 41.5 0 2 2015-2016 41.0 0 3 2011-2012 40.5 0 4 1931-1932 40.1 0 5 1997-1998 39.6 0 6 2016-2017 39.3 0 7 1990-1991 39.1 0 8 1998-1999 38.6 0 9 1948-1949 38.5 0 10 1889-1890 38.4 0

NYC is currently the 10th warmest for 12-1 to 2-4. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Dec 1 to Feb 4 Missing Count 1 2016-02-04 43.0 0 2 2002-02-04 41.8 0 3 1932-02-04 41.6 0 4 2012-02-04 40.5 0 5 1950-02-04 40.0 0 6 2007-02-04 39.9 0 7 1933-02-04 39.6 0 8 1995-02-04 39.4 0 - 1913-02-04 39.4 0 9 1998-02-04 39.2 0 10 2020-02-04 39.1 0 - 1991-02-04 39.1 0

At least we aren’t alone with the challenging snowfall situation. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/snow/HTML/snow_extent_plots.html

This has been our default February pattern since 2017 as this Niña-like regime continues.

67 degrees in Atlantic City after the sun came out. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/meteogram/link.shtml?choice=KACY

While all the models have had a cold bias beyond 120 hrs, the GEFS has been much worse than the EPS.

I would much rather have a series of great KU events than a bunch of smaller ones adding up to 20 something. Our snowfall seasons have become more like a power hitter that either homers or strikes out a lot. So it leaves us open to slump years when it’s a struggle to just get on base.

The midrange 20’s snowfall seasons have vanished at places like BNL since the 93-94 winter. They used to be common before then. Snowfall distribution has become more extreme. Now snowfall is either over 30” or under 20”. https://www.bnl.gov/weather/4cast/MonthlySnowfall.htm

January finished with the 3rd most positive AO index for the month behind 1993 and 1989. Jan 1993...+3.495...1989....+3.106....2020...+2.419. Models continuing to forecast levels getting above +5. This would be near the all-time highest values. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/monthly.ao.index.b50.current.ascii.table

https://xmacis.rcc-acis.org

Looks like only the 4th January that the high temperature remained above 32 degrees in Newark. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jan Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 1990 35 0 2 2020 33 0 - 1953 33 0 - 1932 33 0 5 2002 32 0 - 1937 32 0

Not this time around. https://www.pik-potsdam.de/news/press-releases/archive/2010/weakening-sun-would-hardly-slow-global-warming Most likely, a new Grand Minimum of solar activity would diminish global mean temperatures in the year 2100 by about 0.1 or 0.2 degrees Celsius,” says Stefan Rahmstorf, head of Earth System Analysis at PIK. Even taking into account all uncertainties in the temperature reconstruction, the forcings, and the model physics, the overall uncertainty is estimated to be at most a factor of three, so the solar cooling effect would very likely not exceed 0.3 degrees. “A new Maunder-type solar activity minimum cannot offset the global warming caused by human greenhouse gas emissions,” the authors conclude. Moreover, any offset of global warming due to a Grand Minimum of solar activity would merely be a temporary effect, since solar minima typically last for several decades to a century at most. Current temperature data also confirm that the effect of low solar activity on the climate is very small”, notes Rahmstorf. The current minimum has not noticeably slowed down global warming. Projected changes to the global mean temperature depend more strongly on emissions than solar activity. Credit: PIK

Yeah, models going really strong on the forcing around phase 6 with the near record warm SST’s out there.

Hopefully, this just turns out to be a 2 year thing. That’s how it has worked out since 2010. But if we don’t see a change as soon as next winter, then it could be an extended stretch. 09-10....10-11....record -AO/-NAO....Colder and snowy 11-12..................Raging +EPO..........Warm low snowfall 12-13..................Great February especially eastern sections...warmer winter 13-14....14-15.....record -EPO...built further east into +PNA 2nd winter...cold and snowy 15-16..................Super El Niño...warm and snowy 16-17.....17-18....Warm and snowy La Niña 18-19....19-20.....Warm and less snowfall...ridge stuck north of Hawaii with persistent cutter and hugger storm tracks

Yeah, the spring into early summer pattern evolution will be important. This pattern during the summer would be just like 2010 to 2012.

No surprise since the ridge axis has been stuck north of Hawaii for 2 winters now. The million dollar question is how much longer this most recent stuck weather pattern lasts.