bluewave

LGA moves into 2nd place for the most 95° days in July. Very unusual not to have any 100° days with 7 days reaching 95° or warmer. Almost like a summer version of February 2015 when several stations couldn’t drop to 0 with it being so cold. Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 95 Monthly Max 1 1999 11 101 2 2020 7 97 - 2012 7 101 - 1955 7 100

Looks like the move was part of the transition away from MOS development to the NBM. https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/scn20-47transition_mos_data.pdf Service Change Notification 20-47 National Weather Service Headquarters Silver Spring MD 135 OM EDT Mon April 27th, 2020 We are also alerting MOS users that MDL has discontinued active development of MOS-based guidance products, with all efforts being directed toward the National Blend of Models (NBM). NBM graphical and text products can be found at: https://www.weather.gov/mdl/nbm_home

Numerous stations that are rural and urban have their warmest July monthly minimum temperature on record so far. Several of the stations recently set or tied their record in July 2019. Time Series Summary for MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 57 10 2 2019 54 1 - 2013 54 0 - 2012 54 9 Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 63 10 2 2019 61 0 - 2012 61 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 67 10 2 2019 66 0 - 1994 66 0 - 1993 66 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 67 10 2 2008 66 0 3 2019 65 0 - 1993 65 0 - 1970 65 0 - 1955 65 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 68 10 - 2008 68 0 3 2019 67 0 - 1994 67 0 Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 64 10 - 2019 64 0 - 1994 64 0 Time Series Summary for DANBURY MUNICIPAL AP, CT - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 59 10 2 2012 56 0 3 2019 55 0 - 2013 55 0 Time Series Summary for ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 59 10 2 2019 57 0 3 2008 56 0 - 2004 56 0 Time Series Summary for New Brunswick Area, NJ (ThreadEx) - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 63 10 2 2019 60 0 - 1931 60 0 - 1897 60 0 Time Series Summary for SUSSEX AIRPORT, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 58 10 2 2019 54 0 3 2013 53 0 - 2012 53 0

Sea level rise or sunny day flooding is increasing fastest over the Southeast. https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/us-high-tide-flooding-continues-to-increase The report, 2019 State of High-Tide Flooding and 2020 Outlook, documents changes in high-tide flooding patterns from May 2019 to April 2020 at 98 NOAA tidal gauges along the U.S. coast, and provides a flooding outlook for these locations for the coming meteorological year, May 2020 to April 2021, and projections for the next several decades High-tide flooding, often referred to as "nuisance" or “sunny day” flooding, is increasingly common due to years of relative sea level increases. It occurs when tides reach anywhere from 1.75 to 2 feet above the daily average high tide and start spilling onto streets or bubbling up from storm drains. As sea level rise continues, damaging floods that decades ago happened only during a storm now happen more regularly, such as during a full-moon tide or with a change in prevailing winds or currents. In 2019, the Southeast saw a 3-fold increase in flooding days compared to the year 2000. For example, Charleston, S.C., had 13 days where flooding reached damaging levels, compared to only two days typical in 2000. Along the Western Gulf, percentage increases were the highest, greater than 5-fold. In Texas, Sabine Pass and Corpus Christi had 21 and 18 flooding days in 2019, and in 2000 those locations would typically only experience about one and three days, respectively. "As a Chesapeake Bay resident, I see the flooding first hand and it is getting worse. Records seem to be set every year," said William Sweet, Ph.D., an oceanographer for NOAA’s National Ocean Service and lead author of the report. "Communities are straddled with this growing problem. Fortunately, NOAA’s tide gauge network is keeping a close watch and helping us provide guidance about the disruptive flooding

The 79° dew point at ISP and 79° minimum at FRG were probably the two most impressive records for Long Island. The FRG data only goes back to 2000. Time Series Summary for FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 79 11 - 2019 79 0 - 2013 79 0 - 2002 79 0

We need better downtown representation since our airports are subject to sea breezes.

Looks like more 95°+ potential by Sunday and Monday as 850 mb temperatures return to +20C. 850 hPa temperature / 500 hPa geopotential Tuesday 21 Jul, 12 UTC T+144 Valid: Monday 27 Jul, 12 UTC

Peak SSTs up a few more degrees to 81° now. STATION/POSITION TIME SKY/WX TEMP WIND PRES VSBY WAVE AIR SEA DIR/SP/G HT/PER (UTC) (F) (DEG/KT/KT) (MB) (MI) (FT/S) NY Harb Entrance 1850 81 150/ 8/ 10 1015.9 2/ 6 20 S Fire Island 1850 110/ 2/ 4 1016.5 2/ 6 Great South Bay NOT AVBL 23 SSW Montauk P 1840 80 75 200/ 4/ 6 1016.7 15 E Barnegat Li 1826 81 N/A 2/ 6 Hudson Canyon 1850 77 1017.4 3/ 6 Kings Point 1830 87 190/ 8/ 11 1016.5 Execution Rocks 1830 86 180/ 4/ 6 N/A Western LI Sound 1730 83 100/ 4/ 6 N/A Central LI Sound NOT AVBL Robbins Reef 1830 80 180/ 17/ 18 1016.1

Fay only dropped the SSTs for 3 days before they rebounded again.

Just a brief SST drop before rising again.

Ocean temperatures running near 80° STATION/POSITION TIME SKY/WX TEMP WIND PRES VSBY WAVE AIR SEA DIR/SP/G HT/PER (UTC) (F) (DEG/KT/KT) (MB) (MI) (FT/S) NY Harb Entrance 1540 79 160/ 4/ 6 1016.5 20 S Fire Island 1540 100/ 4/ 4 1016.7 Great South Bay NOT AVBL 23 SSW Montauk P 1550 78 75 CALM / 2 1016.9 3/ 7 15 E Barnegat Li 1526 79 N/A 2/ 6 Hudson Canyon 1550 77 1017.7 2/ 6 Kings Point 1524 82 50/ 5/ 5 1017.4 Execution Rocks 1530 81 80/ 4/ 4 N/A Western LI Sound 1445 81 190/ 2/ 4 N/A Central LI Sound NOT AVBL Robbins Reef 1524 81 170/ 16/ 17 1016.8

Having so many 95° or warmer days this July, it would be a oddity for LGA not to reach 100°. With the heat in the forecast, LGA could finish in 2nd place for the most 95° or warmer days in July. Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 95 Monthly Max 1 1999 11 101 2 2012 7 101 - 1955 7 100 3 2020 6 97 - 2013 6 100 - 2010 6 103 - 2002 6 98 - 1991 6 101 - 1966 6 107

80° Julys have become more common since 2010 at LGA and EWR. These July average temperatures are considered normal for areas around DC. DAILY NORMALS AND RECORDS FOR THE MONTH OF JULY FOR WASHINGTON DC NORMALS BASED ON PERIOD 1981-2010 MONTHLY NORMALS: MAX 88.4 MIN 71.1 AVG 79.8 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2010 82.8 0 2 1999 81.9 0 3 2020 81.8 11 4 2019 81.5 0 5 2013 81.2 0 6 2016 81.1 0 7 1955 80.9 0 8 1966 80.8 0 9 2006 80.7 0 10 1994 80.6 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2011 82.7 0 2 1993 82.5 0 3 2010 82.3 0 4 1994 81.9 0 5 2013 80.9 0 6 2012 80.8 0 - 1999 80.8 0 7 2019 80.6 0 8 1955 80.5 0 9 1988 80.4 0 10 2002 80.0 0 11 2020 79.9 11 - 2016 79.9 0

97° was the highest temperature around the area last 2 days at LGA. So we continue the pattern of the warmest July temperatures coming around the 20th. It will be interesting to see if next week can beat 97°for a late monthly max. Highest July temperature and date at EWR or LGA since 2010 7-19/20-20.....97 7-21-19........100 7-1-18...........98 7-20-17.........98 7-23/25-16...99 7-19-15.........98 7-2-14...........96 7-18-13........101 7-18-12........104 7-22-11........108 7-6-10..........103

Yeah, 5 hourly records or ties for the month of July today at ISP.

Looks like a 79° dew point at ISP now. New July record for 8am. Notice how many new hourly July records in recent years. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=153&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=ISP&month=jul&var=max_dwpf&dpi=100&_fmt=png

ISP is the closet that our area has come to an 80° dew point this year. MacArthur/ISP PTSUNNY 78 78 100 S3

70° minimums have been more impressive than 90° maximums at JFK since the record dew point surge began with the 2015-2016 super El Niño. Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Min Temperature >= 70 Missing Count 1 2016 55 0 2 2015 53 0 3 2010 51 0 4 2018 49 0 5 2012 48 0 - 1983 48 0 6 1980 47 0 - 1971 47 0 7 1984 46 0 8 2013 44 0 - 1999 44 0 9 2005 40 0 - 1995 40 0 - 1981 40 0 - 1970 40 0 10 2011 39 0 - 1969 39 0 11 2019 38 0 - 1961 38 0 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Missing Count 1 2010 32 0 2 1983 26 0 3 2002 21 0 4 1971 18 0 5 2005 17 0 - 1991 17 0 6 2012 16 0 7 2016 15 0 - 1995 15 0 - 1961 15 0 8 1999 14 0 - 1988 14 0 - 1966 14 0 9 2011 13 0 - 1993 13 0 - 1984 13 0 - 1977 13 0 - 1970 13 0 - 1969 13 0 - 1963 13 0 10 2015 12 0 - 2006 12 0 - 2003 12 0 - 1978 12 0 - 1968 12 0

Another day when the highest temperature misses to our north.

Highs through 2pm... LGA....97 EWR...96 TEB....95 NYC...94 FRG....92 JFK....88 ISP.....88 HWV...87

95° at LGA LaGuardia Arpt PTSUNNY 95 65 37 SW13G22

Pretty impressive marine layer for such a warm air mass.

90° at 10 am. LaGuardia Arpt PTSUNNY 90 65 43 SW8

Yeah, your area is closest to the marine layer again today. ISP starting the day with a 76° dew point and dense fog in the Hamptons. MacArthur/ISP PTSUNNY 76 76 100 SW8 29.98R FOG East Hampton FOG 72 72 99 SW6 29.99R VSB<1/4

These ocean temperatures near 80°have become the norm in recent years. NY Harb Entrance 2150 78