bluewave

I guess the general public outside this forum will be happy with a lower heating bill. The period since December 23rd was the 2nd warmest on record. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Dec 23 to Jan 12 Missing Count 1 2007-01-12 45.2 0 2 2020-01-12 42.9 0 3 2016-01-12 42.4 0 4 1983-01-12 42.2 0 5 2006-01-12 42.1 0 - 1998-01-12 42.1 0

We have made it to 70 and above for each winter month since 2015. Top 5 warmest temperatures in December and January. A new record warmest in February at 80 degrees. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 1998 76 0 2 2001 74 0 3 2006 72 0 - 1982 72 0 - 1946 72 0 4 2015 71 0 - 2013 71 0 - 1984 71 0 5 1978 70 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jan Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 1950 74 0 2 2007 72 0 3 2020 70 19 - 2002 70 0 - 1998 70 0 - 1932 70 0 4 1974 69 0 5 2000 68 0 - 1967 68 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2018 80 0 2 1949 76 0 3 2017 74 0 - 1997 74 0 - 1954 74 0 4 1985 73 0 5 2011 71 0

New all-time January record highs in Boston and Providence.

I just don’t get that while the storm is in progress. I saw a bunch of similar posts while I was trying to go through the storm observations. You guys really had your hands full. The Euro and EPS forecasts from 7-8 days out were superb. https://www.ecmwf.int/en/elibrary/10913-evaluation-forecasts-hurricane-sandy

The 68 so far at ISP is only one off the January all-time high of 69 degrees. Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Jan Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2002 69 0 2 2007 68 0 3 1995 67 0 4 1974 66 0 - 1967 66 0 5 2008 64 0 - 1998 64 0

I wasn’t referring to the moderators. The post was addressing ways for the members to make this a better place. You guys have enough to do without having to worry about this type of behavior. The whole moderating team does an amazing job here. I can’t imagine what it was like for the moderating team to have to delete all the Sandy is going to bust posts that day. It was a stressful situation enough without all that side drama. My electricity was going on an off and the bust posts made the thread very hard to read.

67 here and it feels like spring. Just opened all the windows.

65 degrees here on the South Shore and it feels like spring.

This paper discusses the lag with the MJO. https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/MWR-D-15-0434.1?mobileUi=0& This study examined contemporaneous relationships between MJO phase and New England snowstorms. Thousands of kilometers separate these features, so we do not imply that the MJO’s effect is instantaneous. Rather, the MJO’s typical phase speed dictates that the MJO goes through one WH phase every 5–7 days, so some lag from the previous phase is implicit in our composites. This increase in East Coast troughing is also associated with cold air advection in the Northeast, enhancing baroclinicity (Moon et al. 2012). Given the MJO’s typical phase speed, the 7–10-day lag from phase 6 found by these previous studies is consistent with the contemporaneous signal we see in phases 7 and 8.

Go back and read the papers that were posted about MJO lags. Why do you think the CPC has something called lagged composites. The changes take time to manifest especially when we are seeing record amplitude. Short range analysis is fine if you take all the factors and biases into account. There is often overlap during transitions from one phase to the other.

This MJO just keeps getting more extreme. You can see all the guidance shifting to more of a phase 7 look around the 20th.

I think that they can do better if they try. It would make things so much easier. It’s tough having to wade through all those posts since it takes the attention away from the actual weather. Makes it harder to find relevant posts that get lost in the mix.

There are probably a few things that we can do to make this place run more smoothly. We should refrain from posting certain types of maps that have been proven to be very low skill. Any snowfall maps beyond 120 hrs 10:1 snowfall maps in marginal conditions. Any very long range OP runs such as the GFS from 240 to 384 hrs Some helpful hints to improve the model discussions When discussing a 6-10 day storm threat or pattern, try to rely more on ensemble means until we get closer to 120 hrs. Remember that human nature likes to extrapolate the current conditions forward. This means in warm pattern we get a bunch of winter cancel posts that seem to derail the threads. The same thing happens in cold patterns when some posters claim that it won’t eventually get warm again. And if a warmer forecast is presented when it’s cold, don’t go after that poster for hating winter or having a warm bias. Respect your fellow posters and never shut down conversations that presents varying opinions about an upcoming forecast. Following these guidelines will improve the long ranges forecasts and discussions.

This is officially the warmest midnight to 6am hourly temperatures of all-time at Newark in January. Newark has been at 65 to 66 degrees with 3 new hourly records and two ties. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=153&network=NJ_ASOS&zstation=EWR&month=jan&var=max_tmpf&dpi=100&_fmt=png

While you hope we get a favorable storm track for heavy snows at the coast, just pointing out a colder pattern coming around the 20th isn’t a guarantee. That’s why storm tracks are so important. Late last January with a similar 500 mb pattern we only got some light snows.

Ensembles begin to correctly pick up the general 500 mb pattern in the day 8-10 range. So I never really pay attention to what the operational GFS shows for an individual storm that far out in time. The NCEP should follow the ECMWF lead and stop running the OP beyond 240 hrs. Notice how the ECMWF only has the control and ensembles day 11-15. And those are often too low skill to be of use that far out in time.

Forecasts beginning around the 20th look very close to the phase 7 composite.

Looks like we have a chance to beat both those readings the next few days when the site updates.

Looks close to the MJO phase 4 record for January. &_ACCESS_wind 2020 1 9 3.0007334 -0.43843362 4 3.0325940

Yeah, the 70 at Newark was warmer than 8-29-17. 2017-08-29 69

The 68 at POU is only 2 off their all-time January high of 70 in 2007. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/meteogram/link.shtml?choice=Kpou Time Series Summary for Poughkeepsie Area, NY (ThreadEx) - Month of Jan Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2007 70 0 2 1932 69 2 3 1950 68 0 4 1937 67 0 5 2016 65 0

This was the 6th year that Newark made it to 70 degrees in January. It was the 4th time since 1998. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jan Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 1950 74 0 2 2007 72 0 3 2002 70 0 - 1998 70 0 - 1932 70 0

We can always get a transient -NAO from a wave breaking event. But more lasting -NAO episodes are usually associated with MJO phase 8 and SSW’s.

This is another case of the SE ridge surpassing expectations in situations that allow for it. While not as extreme as what happened in February 2018, this is close to the record 500 mb height for January at OKX.

I am guessing that it is related to the MJO. We lingered in 6-7 later last January before the push into 8 during February. But we are much more amplified this year than last year.