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bluewave

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Everything posted by bluewave

  1. bluewave
    Yeah, that was in the era of much colder Februaries. When we get cold these days in February, it really stands out. The coldest recent February was 2015 with the weak El Niño. Our only February below 0° was during the Super El Niño in 2016. Those 1970s La Niñas were during our long 10”+ snowstorm drought from 1970 to 1977. This winter we already have 2. NYC February average temperature 1970-1980....32.4° 2010-2020....36.0°
  2. bluewave
    Updated for this most recent event from Jan 31 to Feb 2, 2021. Bloomingdale, NJ 26.2 in 0100 AM 02/02 Trained Spotter
  3. bluewave
    This could be our first La Niña winter in 30 years when NYC finishes with a cold departure in February and it’s the snowiest month. Even the 1995-1996 winter couldn’t pull off this feat. While it had a cold departure in February, the snowiest winter month was January. Just goes to show how competing influences during the last 3 winters overrode ENSO climatology. NYC La Ninas last 30 years Temperature departures Snowfall Season.....Dec....Jan....Feb 20-21......+1.7....+2.2.....? ................10.5.....2.1.....14.8...so far 17-18......-2.5......-0.9......+6.7 ................7.7......11.2......4.9 16-17......+0.8....+5.4.....+6.3 ................3.2.......7.9......9.4 11-12......+5.8....+4.7.....+5.6 .................0.0.....4.3........0.2 10-11......-4.7.....-2.9......+0.7 ...............20.1.....36.0.....4.8 08-09......+0.6.....-4.7.....+1.4 .................6.0......9.0......4.3 07-08.......+4.9.....+3.9....+0.5 .................2.9........T.........9.0 05-06.......-2.2.......+8.3.....+0.4 ..................9.7.......2.0......26.9 00-01......-6.4......+1.0....+0.6 ................13.4......8.3......9.5 99-00......+2.4......-1.3.....+3.5 ..................T.........9.5.......5.2 98-99.......+5.6.....+1.3.....+3.5 .................2.0........1.5.......4.7 95-96.......-5.1......-2.1.......-1.5 .................11.5......26.1......21.2
  4. bluewave
    Walt, excellent post as usual. This is a map illustrating the February peak in Northeast snowstorms. The other thing that stands out in the research you provided is the historic number of storms during the last 15 years. The 51 Northeast snowstorms is off the charts counting all months in the snowfall season. 2006-2007 to 2020-2021.....51 storms 1991-1992 to 2005-2006.....30 storms 1975-1976 to 1990-1991.....25 storms 1960-1961 to 1974-1975......24 storms 1945-1946 to 1959-1960..... 20 storms
  5. bluewave
    We are playing with loaded snow dice so below normal snowfall seasons are harder to achieve these days.
  6. bluewave
    One or two down years in a row seems to be the max before snowfall rebounds in our snowier climate since 02-03.
  7. bluewave
    More areas join the 20”+ club.
  8. bluewave
    First double digit snowfall at ISP since 3-22-18.
  9. bluewave
    You guys may have the best shot at 30” in the area with the right pivot.
  10. bluewave
    Sneaky warm layer at 850 mb. SFC 1002 23 -0.5 -1.3 94 0.8 -0.8 13 24 272.4 273.0 272.2 281.8 3.46 1 1000 42 -1.0 -2.0 93 1.0 -1.4 14 21 272.2 272.7 271.8 281.1 3.31 2 950 449 -4.1 -4.1 100 0.0 -4.1 27 52 273.1 273.6 271.8 281.2 2.97 3 900 876 -1.6 -2.0 97 0.4 -1.7 52 70 279.9 280.5 276.7 290.1 3.67 4 850 1334 0.1 -0.3 97 0.4 -0.0 71 57 286.3 287.1 280.8 298.8 4.41 5 800 1818 -2.1 -2.9 94 0.8 -2.5 83 52 288.9 289.5 281.3 300.0 3.85 6 750 2327 -6.6 -6.6 100 0.0 -6.6 73 54 289.4 289.9 280.7 298.5 3.10 7 700 2868 -4.8 -4.8 100 0.0 -4.8 118 63 297.1 297.8 284.8 308.5 3.81
  11. bluewave
    Parts of NNJ closing in on 25”.
  12. bluewave
    First time this winter that the EPS weeklies corrected colder the closer we got to the forecast period. Feb 1-8 Feb 8-15
  13. bluewave
  14. bluewave
    Temperature up to 31.3° here in SW with very light snow.
  15. bluewave
    Snow got really light here in SW Suffolk and the temperature dropped to 30.6°.
  16. bluewave
    Nice band of heavy snow across the whole South Shore of Suffolk. MacArthur/ISP HVY SNOW 31 30 96 NE29G43 29.87F VSB 1/4 WCI 16 Shirley HVY SNOW 31 28 89 NE12G24 29.90F VSB 1/4 WCI 22 Westhampton HVY SNOW 32 30 92 NE20G35 29.91F VSB 1/4 WCI 20
  17. bluewave
    Same here in SW Suffolk. ISP now reporting heavy snow also.
  18. bluewave
    I am at around .2 to .25 of a mile in heavy snow and 31.3° here in SW Suffolk.
  19. bluewave
    Getting heavy snow now in SW Suffolk and 31.3°. The snowfall rate rapidly increased in the last 15 minutes with this 40 DBZ band.
  20. bluewave
    Holding at 31.3° with the snowfall rates approaching moderate.
  21. bluewave
    Light to moderate snow here in SW Suffolk and 31°. I am under that 30 DBZ yellow band on radar. The higher reflectivities are more a function of the very large snow flakes than the actual rate of the snow here.
  22. bluewave
    31.5° and light snow here in SW Suffolk.
  23. bluewave
    31° with light snow here in SW Suffolk. Was moderate a little while ago.
  24. bluewave
    Yeah, this looks like it will be the 11th storm to max out at 20”+ somewhere in the OKX forecast zones since the 09-10 winter.
  25. bluewave
    Yeah, near whiteout conditions with 2-4” per hour rates and wind gusts over 50 mph.
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