bluewave

A faster phase may come down to a stronger southern stream UL like the NAM has.

The EPS continues the warm March theme.

While the NAM is still outside its best range, looks like it wants to phase a little faster than the 0z Euro.

Even though there won’t be any cold to start the storm, it would be nice to see a change to wet snow before the storm ends. Hard to believe it has been 2 years since a deep low passed within 150 miles of the benchmark. It will be interesting to see if the 2 year cutter, hugger, and southern stream suppression storm track pattern is starting to relax But we’ll have to wait until next winter since this could just be the March wavelengths at work.

Models continuing with the warmer than recent Marches theme.

Updated for top 10 warmth in February 2020. 2....2020...EWR...6...NYC...6...LGA....8...JFK...4...BDR...5....iSP...3

After the top 2 warmest Februaries on record in 2017 and 2018, 2020 was another top 10 warmest finish. There have been 7 out of 11 warmer than normal Februaries since 2010. .............EWR....NYC....LGA 2020.....+5.4...+4.8...+4.6 2019....+1.4.....+0.9...+0.5 2018....+6.8....+6.7.....+7.1 2017....+7.0....+6.3.....+7.5 2016....+2.5....+2.4.....+3.1 2015....-12.0...-11.4....-11.1 2014....-4.7.....-3.7.....-4.0 2013....-0.5.....-1.4.....-0.8 2012....+5.9....+5.6....+6.1 2011....+1.8.....+0.7.....+1.2 2010....-1.4......-2.2......-1.5

Even during our 50 degree December 2015, we found a way to get a T near the end of the month. So it shows how difficult it would be to go a whole winter without at least a T. Philly finished 72-73 with just a T. Same here. Saw some flakes on the Long Beach cam.

Snowing along the South Shore.

Imagine if some areas got their first February snow on leap day. Most of the time this would have been March 1st.

Root for that squall to hold together so some areas get their first trace for February.

The mid 20’s snowfall season has become a thing of the past here on Long Island. Every season since 2010 has been much above or much below average. This all or nothing snowfall pattern became more common since the 93-94 season. Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30 Missing Count 2020-04-30 6.8 64 2019-04-30 12.8 0 2018-04-30 65.9 0 2017-04-30 39.3 0 2016-04-30 41.4 0 2015-04-30 63.7 0 2014-04-30 63.7 0 2013-04-30 46.9 0 2012-04-30 4.7 0 2011-04-30 55.3 0 2010-04-30 53.8 0 BNL snowfall https://www.bnl.gov/weather/4cast/MonthlySnowfall.htm

First two years in a row since the 1990’s without at least a NESIS cat 1 snowstorm. The article notes the last two years as 1997-1998 and 1998-1999. But some may have considered the March 1999 heavy wet snow event as a NESIS 1. So we would have to go back to the early 1990’s. A very extreme benchmark storm track shut down after March 2018. All our storm tracks have been cutter, hugger, and southern stream suppression since then. Winter Storm Tracks 2019-20 The arrows represent the tracks of significant winter storms so far this season. The shaded areas are estimates of total snowfall this season.

We can’t even get a cold winter anymore without long duration extreme high latitude blocking. The cold 09-10 and 10-11 winters required the record -AO /-NAO blocking. Our cold 13-14 and 14-15 winters were all about the record -EPO/+PNA blocking. The default pattern in 11-12, 12-13, 15-16, 16-17, 17-18, 18-19, and 19-20 has been warm to record warm.

Pretty amazing temperature jump last 5 winters above 1981-2010 averages. Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Dec Jan Feb Season Mean 40.5 35.2 39.7 38.4 2019-2020 38.3 39.1 40.8 39.4 2018-2019 40.1 32.5 36.2 36.3 2017-2018 35.0 31.7 42.0 36.2 2016-2017 38.3 38.0 41.6 39.3 2015-2016 50.8 34.5 37.7 41.0 1981-2010...37.5..32.6..35.3.....35.1 ....................+3.0..+2.6...+4.4.....+3.3 https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/nycnormals.pdf

This winter is another example of our climate becoming more subtropical. Single digit snowfall is typical for North Carolina. Average temperatures near 40 degrees are normal for Richmond, VA. The average July temperature last summer near 80 degrees is also common for the Richmond, VA area. Same goes for the record number of 75 degree dew points last few summers at places like JFK. Such a high number of days are common for that region also.

NYC needs 0.1 to get out of 1st place for the earliest end to the measurable snowfall season on record. 1-18-2020....2.1....so far 1-19-2002....3.0 2-01-1878....2.0 2-12-2012....0.2 2-12-1925....1.3 2-15-1986....0.1

This winter will finish near the bottom of the list for winter hours below freezing.

Yeah, this was the second winter in a row that an area of record SST’s somewhere west to date line had a huge impact.

I think the inability of the El Niño to couple last winter really threw them off. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/csi-enso-case-missing-central-pacific-rainfall

The Met Office seasonal model did a nice job picking up on the winter pattern back in the fall.

This was the warmest 12-22 to 2-24 period on record at 40.1 degrees in NYC. It was also the 5th lowest snowfall total at 2.3”. Last year over this period was 10th lowest at 3.6”. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Dec 22 to Feb 24 Missing Count 1 2020-02-24 40.1 0 2 1932-02-24 39.8 0 3 2006-02-24 39.6 0 4 2017-02-24 39.5 0 5 2012-02-24 39.3 0 - 1998-02-24 39.3 0 6 2002-02-24 39.2 0 7 1990-02-24 38.8 0 8 1937-02-24 38.7 0 9 1933-02-24 38.6 0 10 1950-02-24 38.5 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Snowfall Dec 22 to Feb 24 Missing Count 1 1998-02-24 0.5 0 2 1919-02-24 0.8 0 3 1890-02-24 1.0 0 4 1959-02-24 1.9 0 5 2020-02-24 2.3 0 6 1990-02-24 2.4 0 7 1992-02-24 2.5 0 8 1973-02-24 2.6 0 - 1932-02-24 2.6 0 9 2002-02-24 3.5 0 10 2019-02-24 3.6 0

Philly narrowly avoided the trace of snow they got in 72-73.