bluewave

Still stuck in this record SE ridge pattern.

The cold front finally made it through.

Light coating on the cars and rooftops here in SW Suffolk. Grass and pavement just wet.

While this timing could easily change in later runs, temperatures this warm around midnight could be near record values for January. Very unusual to see these type of temperatures during the night in January.

Individual storm details have been very difficult beyond a few days with the firehose Pacific Jet. Too many different shortwaves for the models to correctly resolve further out. The one recent constant has been temperatures verifying warmer than guidance. Yesterday was the 14th day in a row with above normal temperatures. Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Avg Temperature Departure 2019-12-22 2.5 2019-12-23 13.8 2019-12-24 6.5 2019-12-25 4.7 2019-12-26 6.5 2019-12-27 15.7 2019-12-28 12.9 2019-12-29 7.6 2019-12-30 5.3 2019-12-31 6.9 2020-01-01 4.1 2020-01-02 7.7 2020-01-03 13.4 2020-01-04 13.0

I think that people have become warm out by how fickle the models have been with snowfall forecasts this winter. Seems like everyone just wants to wait until nowcast time to see what happens.

This is the general pattern thread. Individual storm threats usually get their own thread. So start one after the 12z runs come in.

Temperatures at least reaching 60+ look like a good bet on the warmest days. But the location of the front will be critical for the exact temperatures. This is going to be an unusually wet January warm up. So the exact temperatures will probably have to wait to within 120 hrs. Unusually wet January warm up

2007 was the last time for Newark. But 64 degrees or warmer in January has become much more common. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jan Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 1950 74 0 2 2007 72 0 3 2002 70 0 - 1998 70 0 - 1932 70 0 4 1974 69 0 5 2000 68 0 - 1967 68 0 6 2017 67 0 - 2005 67 0 - 1995 67 0 7 2013 66 0 - 2008 66 0 - 1993 66 0 - 1990 66 0 - 1975 66 0 - 1937 66 0 8 2016 65 0 - 1973 65 0 - 1972 65 0 9 2018 64 0 - 2012 64 0 - 1951 64 0 - 1947 64 0

The 0z OP Euro was close. Has 70 degrees into Central NJ next weekend. The EPS mean was a little further south.

Places like Newark could make a run on a 60 degree dewpoint. But that 68 dewpoint record during the January 1998 super El Niño is probably safe. Highest January dewpoints at Newark 68...1998 62....2018....1972 61...2007...1993...1975 60...2005...1972

Remember the cool down the models were showing between the 5th and 10th a week ago. It looks like we only get 1or 2 colder than normal days now. NEW YORK CITY-CENTRAL PARK KNYC GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 1/04/2020 1200 UTC FHR 24 36| 48 60| 72 84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192 SUN 05| MON 06| TUE 07| WED 08| THU 09| FRI 10| SAT 11|SUN CLIMO N/X 36 41| 34 50| 34 44| 29 40| 20 35| 31 48| 47 54| 47 25 38

Yeah, I saw that. This could be one of our warmest January 10th to 20th periods on record. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jan 10 to Jan 20 Missing Count 1 1932-01-20 46.6 0 2 1995-01-20 44.3 0 3 1937-01-20 41.7 0 4 2006-01-20 41.6 0 5 1933-01-20 41.4 0

Models continuing with one of the strongest MJO phase 4-5 events on record for January. This could keep a warm SE ridge pattern in place through the 20th . More models getting over to phase 6 near the end of the runs which is still a warm phase for us. We are still experiencing the lagged warmth from the late December phase 6 passage.

1-4-18 was the lowest MSLP blizzard on record to move over the 40/70 benchmark at 950 mb. The follow up record snows in March and early April when ISP went 30”+ marked the end of the benchmark storm track through today. Almost like a grand finale of a fireworks show. Everyone wants to know when the cutter and hugger storms tracks will shift back to the benchmark. https://www.weather.gov/okx/Blizzard_Jan42018

Unusually warm minimums across the whole area since December 23rd. White Plains just experienced the 3 warmest minimum on record12-23 to 01-03. NYC was the 2nd warmest over the same period. While these wet and cloudy warm ups limit the high temperature potential, the minimum temperatures have trouble falling with the clouds and higher dewpoints. Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER COUNTY AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Lowest Min Temperature Dec 23 to Jan 3 Missing Count 1 2016-01-03 28 0 2 2007-01-03 27 0 - 2004-01-03 27 0 - 1983-01-03 27 0 3 2019-01-03 26 0 - 2006-01-03 26 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Lowest Min Temperature Dec 23 to Jan 3 Missing Count 1 2007-01-03 33 0 2 2020-01-03 32 0 - 2019-01-03 32 0 - 2016-01-03 32 0 - 2006-01-03 32 0 - 1983-01-03 32 0

We got lucky in March when the strong -EPO disrupted the unfavorable pattern. But there was enough of a lingering influence so the best snows were NYC-LI North Shore, and CT. I only got about 4” here on the South Shore last March.

Great post. That background state last February was probably related to the warm pool west of the date line. So even though the RMM charts went though phases 6-1, the actual VP anomalies indicated primary forcing between phase 6-7 regions. Almost like a MJO 6.5.

2nd warmest year for the Arctic behind 2016.

These were the warmest December SST’s recorded in the area north of Australia. Also very close to the all-time highest SST’s for that region.

There was a transient SE ridge early on in December which showed up ahead of the cutters and hugger storm tracks. The cold would come in behind the storms. November and March have been our few months to feature below normal temperatures and a suppressed SE ridge.

The ridge over the East emerged strong enough to dominate in the monthly means. Same old pattern with the Niña-like ridge axis stuck north of Hawaii. That’s what caused such low snowfall last DJF even with the colder January intervals. So the cutter and hugger storm tracks won out.

Even though the SE ridge didn’t show up In the means into early December, the cutter and hugger storm tracks would briefly kick it up. So in effect, we had a transient SE ridge for our storms. That’s how Albany had 27.9 inches of snow in December to only 2.5 in NYC.

Seems like the SE ridge has been correcting stronger than indicated by long range forecasts as long as the PAC ridge axis has been closer to the Aleutians. We also saw this last winter with the ridge north of Hawaii. Complete opposite of the 13-14 and 14-15 winters. We can remember the long range EPS showing the ridge over NW Canada and still had a hint of the SE ridge. But as we got closer in, the SE ridge would always disappear.

The EPS has been on this MJO phase 4-5 since Christmas. But it’s normal for the models to correct more amplified the closer in they get.