bluewave

Hard to believe that Christmas was our last cutter with 1.00”+ of rain in NYC and 60°. The main storm track since then has been Miller Bs sliding by to our south. It will be interesting to see if the Euro is correct about an actual warm and wet cutter for next week.

This happens all the time during convection season. Model forecasts often don’t match the location of the best convection. You could see all the best convection going by just our south yesterday. THE ATLANTIC CITY NJ CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR MARCH 18 2021... PRECIPITATION (IN) YESTERDAY 1.73 1.76 1946 0.15 1.58 0.01

About .68 here is SW Suffolk. Less rain than forecast. Maybe the convection associated with the high risk to our south threw the models off.

March has had an inverse relationship to February snowfall since the snowier era began in 2003. All the 20”+ Februaries had under 4” during March in NYC. The under 5" Februaries generally had a nice rebound in March like in 2018. Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Feb Mar 2010 36.9 T 2014 29.0 0.1 2006 26.9 1.3 2003 26.1 3.5 2021 26.0 T Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Feb Mar 2020 T T 2012 0.2 0.0 2004 0.7 4.8 2019 2.6 10.4 2007 3.8 6.0 2016 4.0 0.9 2009 4.3 8.3 2011 4.8 1.0 2018 4.9 11.6

It looks like we are on track for a warmer than normal March. While the departures won’t be a s high as last year, it would be the 2nd warmer March in a row. This is a departure from previous years when March was a reliably colder month. We also saw record warmth in November which has also been a colder month recently.

The last 3 snowfall seasons had their most extreme snowfalls in the fall or spring. 17-18 featured the record breaking 30" of snow in March on Long Island. The 18-19 season had the best snows in November and March with very little for DJF. May 2020 tied with 1977 for the latest trace of snow following one the lowest seasonal snowfall totals. This season we finally got our most interesting snowfall records in February.

One last shot of winter into the weekend before spring tries to make a return next week.

Probably our last chance for some snow this season as spring tries to make a push next week.

Pretty impressive set of records for Cheyenne. NYC had its record all-time snowstorm in January 2016. October 2011 featured the biggest October snowstorm. So it’s quite a feat to pull this of in the same season. Upon further review, the 2-day snow observation of 30.8" fell 1.1" short of the 2 day record of 31.9" set in 1949. However, we did break the 1 day record for snowfall at Cheyenne with 22.7"

First NYC dewpoint below -10 this late in March in a while. Central Park SUNNY 29 -11 17 VRB5G23

6th March at Newark with a 50° or greater temperature drop within 4 days. 3-11-21....75°.....3-15-21.....24°........-51° 3-1-17......73°......3-5-17......14°........-59° 3-14-07....79°......3-16-07....25°........-54° 3-8-87......77°......3-10-87....16°........-61° 3-19-86....72°......3-21-86....16°........-56° 3-2-72......78°......3-4-72.......20°.......-58°

I think that 3-30-07 may be the record lowest relative humidity. LGA 1:51 PM 63 F 2 F 9 % EWR 5:51 PM 68 F -5 F 5 % JFK 7:51 PM 64 F 0 F 8 %

61 mph peak gust on Long Island.

Gusting close to 50 mph now on Long Island. Jones Beach N/A 50 N/A N/A NW36G48 Matinecock Pt N/A 48 N/A N/A W41G49

Gusting close to 60 mph now in Newburgh.

Unusually dry 50/50 low suppression pattern right into mid-March. Boston set a new record for the least amount of clouds during the first two weeks of March. Dewpoints and relative humidity have been falling below model guidance. So it allowed temperatures to warm above guidance and set daily high temperature records. Another Arctic front will cross the area this afternoon. Winds may gust past 50 mph with steep lapse rates right up to 750 mb and temperatures in the 50s. Low temperatures Monday morning temperatures may drop to the low 20s in places like Newark. This would be 55° colder than just a few days ago. Dewpoints look to drop below 0 on Monday. If we can reach to near -10 or lower, then it would be close to the record for mid-March.

Wind gusts may beat expectations with the Arctic front this afternoon. Temperatures rise into the 50s with low dewpoints and steep lapse rates to near 750mb. So there could be some gusts over 50 mph with the MOS temperatures warmer than the raw soundings. KEWR GFS MOS GUIDANCE 3/14/2021 0600 UTC DT /MAR 14 /MAR 15 /MAR 16 / HR 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 00 06 X/N 57 18 39 24 42 TMP 39 49 54 52 43 33 25 20 19 29 36 38 33 29 28 26 26 35 40 40 35

A -10 dewpoint on Monday would be near the record lowest for mid-March. KEWR GFS MOS GUIDANCE 3/13/2021 1200 UTC DT /MAR 13/MAR 14 /MAR 15 /MAR 16 HR 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 06 12 N/X 33 55 22 40 26 TMP 47 48 43 40 38 36 36 44 52 51 43 34 28 24 23 31 38 39 32 29 28 DPT 8 9 14 19 21 21 22 21 17 12 9 6 4 2 -1 -6-10-10 -6 7 11

The low humidity season has arrived right on time. We typically see the driest conditions of the year around March. The 13% reading at Newark was the lowest of the year so far. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=157&network=NJ_ASOS&station=EWR&year=2018&var=min_rh&dir=above&thres=95&dpi=100&_fmt=png Newark Liberty MOSUNNY 70 18 13

The droughts between 1995 and 2002 were impressive. That was the last time that NYC had water restrictions. 2010 wasn’t as dry. All our droughts since 2003 have been shorter and less severe than those years. 1966 was in a class by itself. It’s estimated that the drought in the 1960s was the worst in 300 to 400 years.

The worst droughts since 2003 have been to our west. Very challenging for us to sustain an extended dry pattern. We are in one of the areas that have seen a steady increase in precipitation as the climate has warmed.

NYC is on track for the 2nd driest March 1-15th on record. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Precipitation Mar 1 to Mar 15 Missing Count 1 1886-03-15 0.07 0 2 2021-03-15 0.16 4 3 1927-03-15 0.26 0 4 1894-03-15 0.30 0 - 1879-03-15 0.30 0 5 1873-03-15 0.38 0

Looks like the lowest relative humidity of the year so far at Newark at only 13%. Newark Liberty MOSUNNY 70 18 13