bluewave

JFK up to 32 now from 29 last hour on the SSE wind. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/meteogram/link.shtml?choice=Kjfk

Looks like the mix line currently just to the west of Philly.

Same here in SW Suffolk. Picked up a quick 0.7” of snow.

Quick .5 inch of snow here in SW Suffolk and 28.6 degrees.

Same here in SW Suffolk. Picked up a quick coating and 30 degrees.

Great post, Tom. Misalignment has been a common theme recently. Last winter we saw the the Niña-like warmth in the WPAC result in the uncoupled El Niño. So we had the Niña-like ridge axis stuck north of Hawaii. This year we have experienced a continuation of that persistent ridge axis north of Hawaii. Now we are getting the amplification of the ridge in SE Canada with the Niño-like +AAM spike. But a piece of that ridge north of Hawaii holds on into the 6-10 day forecast. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/csi-enso-case-missing-central-pacific-rainfall

Snowiest day on record for St. John’s.

I found the link for hourly updates. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/meteogram/link.shtml?choice=LFVP

Intense blizzard in Newfoundland today.

The other interesting thing is the really delayed responses we have seen following MJO 8 passages during our recent winters. Last February we entered phase 8 but the snowy conditions came in March. February 2018 featured the historic 80 degree warmth shortly after the MJO 8 passage. The record snows came in March 2018. The only reasonably close in time event was the 1-4-18 benchmark blizzard that bottomed out at 950 mb. That came shortly after the phase 8 in late December. The January 2016 blizzard came about 10 days after phase 8. I know that there have been studies showing a snowstorm lag following phase 8. But sometimes it seems to take longer than even the studies have indicated.

The expansion of the WP warm pool has been favoring the warmer MJO phases.

Yeah, we need to get a shift in that ridge position north of Hawaii to allow more of a -EPO to develop. We usually see the ridge position pull back toward NW Canada and Alaska during and El Niño February. Hopefully, that ridge north of Hawaii doesn’t interfere. That region experienced a historic marine heatwave in 2019. You can see how persistent that ridge has been this winter.

NYC finally dropped below 23 degrees. This was the 2nd warmest minimum temperature from 12-21 to 1-16 on record. Central Park FAIR 22 5 48 NW8 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Lowest Min Temperature Dec 21 to Jan 16 Missing Count 1 1987-01-16 24 0 2 2020-01-16 23 0 3 2013-01-16 22 0 - 2007-01-16 22 0 - 1983-01-16 22 0 - 1967-01-16 22 0 - 1890-01-16 22 0

I think that there is also another wild card. We keep seeing that ridge build over the warm pool around Hawaii. Very tough to get the ridge into Alaska with that feature there. I mentioned the ridge pull back that we normally see in an El Niño February the other day. I just hope that this more Niña-like feature doesn’t interfere.

The ensembles were never particularly great day 11+. It may just be that they are getting posted more with the rise of social media. So they are now coming under greater scrutiny.

Impressive CONUS warmth for the 1st half of meteorological winter.

The warmth for the 1st half of February was more impressive to the north of NYC. It was the 2nd warmest on record at Albany and 6th warmest in NYC. That’s +14.6 in Albany and +10.2 in NYC. Time Series Summary for Albany Area, NY (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jan 1 to Jan 15 Missing Count 1 2007-01-15 37.6 0 2 2020-01-15 37.2 0 3 1932-01-15 36.8 0 4 1937-01-15 35.1 0 5 1889-01-15 35.0 0 6 1930-01-15 34.8 0 7 1874-01-15 34.0 0 8 1907-01-15 33.6 0 9 1928-01-15 33.3 0 10 1936-01-15 33.2 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jan 1 to Jan 15 Missing Count 1 2007-01-15 46.4 0 2 1932-01-15 44.0 0 3 1950-01-15 43.6 0 4 1907-01-15 43.5 0 5 1998-01-15 43.3 0 6 2020-01-15 42.7 0 7 2005-01-15 42.2 0 8 1937-01-15 42.1 0 9 1930-01-15 41.7 0 10 1890-01-15 41.4 0

It certainly looks like we are moving into more of an El Niño pattern. The big AAM rise and strong WWB pattern are classic El Niño features. February is typically our best month of winter with an El Niño. The ridge over SE Canada that the models are indicating around the 25th is the January +AAM composite. That ridge usually pulls back in February allowing a colder pattern. But we can always use some help from the -AO and -NAO to make any El Niño February better.

You can see the models adjusting milder around the 25th now that they have such a strong AAM rise. This is occurring as the record MJO enters the Western Pacific phases. We are getting a very strong WWB with this and a more El Niño looking regime. The stronger ridge building into SE Canada around the 25th is part of this pattern.

The departures and rankings for the first 13 days of January have been even warmer to the north of the NYC area. Albany is a +14.2 with NYC +9.9. This was the 2nd warmest for Albany and 7th warmest in NYC. Time Series Summary for Albany Area, NY (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jan 1 to Jan 13 Missing Count 1 2007-01-13 38.8 0 2 2020-01-13 36.8 0 3 1889-01-13 36.4 0 4 1874-01-13 35.7 0 5 1998-01-13 34.9 0 6 2000-01-13 34.7 0 7 1932-01-13 34.6 0 8 1907-01-13 34.4 0 9 1930-01-13 34.3 0 10 1936-01-13 33.6 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jan 1 to Jan 13 Missing Count 1 2007-01-13 46.4 0 2 1998-01-13 45.3 0 3 1907-01-13 44.2 0 4 2000-01-13 43.5 0 5 1950-01-13 43.2 0 6 2005-01-13 42.6 0 7 2020-01-13 42.5 0 8 1890-01-13 42.2 0 9 2006-01-13 41.8 0 10 2008-01-13 41.5 0

Perhaps this extreme MJO event can jump-start the El Niño. We are getting a decent WWB event unfolding now in the Pacific. I would like to see the northern branch stop competing with the southern stream. A strengthening El Niño could allow the STJ to take over with less interference from disturbances moving through the Great Lakes.

Hopefully, we can move past the the southern stream suppression mode of recent times. The trough axis was also too Far East on 1-13-19. That one was right after the MJO phase 7-8 passage. https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/index_20190113.html

Let’s hope that the 21-23rd potential can make it far enough north. Eric Webb did a great job with the stats. MJO phase 7 is the best phase for winter storm potential in North Carolina during January.

Big differences between what the forum and the general public consider to be a good winter. I guess the 15-16 and 16-17 winters would be considered a perfect compromise. Many of us got our 40 inch snowfall seasons. While the general public had their 40 degree winter with lower heating bills.