bluewave

Just one record after another for winter warmth since December 2015. Those 13-14 and 14-15 seasons seem like a long time ago.

Yeah, timing of the phase and surface and UL track will be critical.

We would probably also need the UL to close off right over the area to make up for the lack of any high pressure to the N or NW.

The January highs and lows were nearly identical to Atlanta so far. Atlanta.....72....23 NYC..........69....20.......EWR.....70....20

Long range model skill may be ready to make another decline. They have dueling areas of forcing in the IO and WPAC. So it’s no surprise that their MJO forecasts are all different. Plus check out this big Jet extension across most of the Northern Hemisphere.

The heavy rain on Saturday was part of another repeating weather pattern since 2010. The heaviest January precipitation event occurred right around the same date late in January. This makes 8 out of the last 11 years for the area. Heaviest January precipitation events since 2010 1-25-20.....Wantagh....1.28 1-24-19......NYC...1.33....EWR.....1-19/20-19...1.52 1-23/24-17......NYC...2.34...T 1-23-16......NYC...2.31....27.3 1-27-15......ISP....1.44......17.4 1-31-13......NYC...0.90 1-26/27-11....NYC....2.06...19.0 1-25-10.....NYC...1.25

28 out of the last 34 days had above normal temperatures. Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Avg Temperature Departure 2019-12-23 13.8 2019-12-24 6.5 2019-12-25 4.7 2019-12-26 6.5 2019-12-27 15.7 2019-12-28 12.9 2019-12-29 7.6 2019-12-30 5.3 2019-12-31 6.9 2020-01-01 4.1 2020-01-02 7.7 2020-01-03 13.4 2020-01-04 13.0 2020-01-05 5.6 2020-01-06 5.7 2020-01-07 7.8 2020-01-08 2.4 2020-01-09 -4.0 2020-01-10 11.6 2020-01-11 27.6 2020-01-12 23.2 2020-01-13 9.2 2020-01-14 10.2 2020-01-15 13.2 2020-01-16 8.8 2020-01-17 -5.2 2020-01-18 -3.8 2020-01-19 2.7 2020-01-20 -6.8 2020-01-21 -5.8 2020-01-22 -0.9 2020-01-23 7.6 2020-01-24 11.5 2020-01-25 12.0

Looks like Newark did it in January 1932.

Newark made it to 70 and 69 on those two days. JFK reached 68 degrees.

Heaviest downpour in a while to move through through SW Suffolk. Wantagh mesonet to my west is at 1.11 of rain. Probably some street flooding in the usual spots.

Yeah, it usually comes down to getting a deep enough system near the benchmark with a high to the N or NW or favorable UL track. Even brief -NAO or -AO intervals can produce that track for us. My favorite example of this was February 2017. That was one of our warmest Februaries on record averaging around 40 degrees. It’s close to the same temperature we have averaged since late December. But all it took that month was a brief -AO /-NAO drop to produce. March 2018 really delivered for us while averaging around 40 degrees. But the extended strong blocking and proper high pressure placement locked in the the benchmark storm track for multiple events. That’s why I am more about the right storm track and teleconnections rather than absolute temperature departures for snowfall. Last winter was all about the wrong storm track and intervals of cold going to waste. This winter so far was a combination of poor storm track and warmth. So you hope that we can capitalize on any blocking intervals we get during the remainder of the season. But there are no guarantees.

We weren’t even the warmest relative to the means across the Northern Hemisphere. The ridge stuck north of Hawaii with the +EPO and +NAO Is a very mild winter pattern for us. We would probably be talking about 100 degree days if this was the summer.

Warmest January since 2010 at EWR and NYC so far. January temperature departures since 2010 EWR....7 out of 11 warmer NYC.....6 out of 11 colder LGA.....7 out of 11 warmer ...........EWR....NYC....LGA 2020....+7.3...+6.8...+5.8....so far 2019....+0.3....-0.1...+0.3 2018....-0.7....-0.9....-1.5 2017...+6.2...+5.4....+6.8 2016...+1.7....+1.9...+2.7 2015...-3.1.....-2.7......-3.1 2014....-4.5.....-4.0....-4.2 2013....+3.8....+2.5...+2.9 2012....+5.4...+4.7....+4.6 2011....-2.1.....-2.9.....-1.0 2010...+0.8....-0.1.....+0.1

Updated for the record 70 degree warmth earlier this month. 2020 EWR...Jan...Max...#3....70....Min...#5....48 NYC....Jan...Max...#3....69 LGA....Jan...Max....#3....67 JFK....Jan....Max...#3...68....Min....#4....47 BDR...Jan....Max...#1...69 ISP....Jan....Max...#2....68....Min....#3....50

Storm Gloria generates the biggest wave ever recorded in the Mediterranean https://www.surfertoday.com/environment/storm-gloria-generates-the-biggest-wave-ever-recorded-in-the-mediterranean

You know it’s a warm pattern when we go above 50 on an E to NE flow in late January.

Yeah, January 1780 was probably the coldest month on record since the settlers arrived. https://books.google.com/books?id=mon_ivVXUY4C&pg=PA60&lpg=PA60&dq=philadelphia+area+weather+book+january+1780&source=bl&ots=uQqtI1kkA1&sig=ACfU3U3Knse60FfcmGIdLevsstiIuJyzDQ&hl=en&ppis=_e&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwi-lJGx3JznAhWlV98KHe_BDLcQ6AEwCnoECAoQAQ#v=onepage&q=philadelphia area weather book january 1780&f=false

This very strong +EPO has produced the most Niña-like North Pacific SST pattern in years.

NYC is currently the 9th warmest January with a week to go. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Jan Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1932 43.2 0 2 1990 41.4 0 - 1950 41.4 0 3 2006 40.9 0 4 1913 40.8 0 5 1937 40.2 0 - 1933 40.2 0 6 1998 40.0 0 7 2002 39.9 0 8 1880 39.2 0 9 2020 39.0 8 10 1949 38.6 0

Continuing right into this month with the long term stuck storm track. Imagine if one of these Great Lakes lows deepens below 975 mb over the region. https://chicago.cbslocal.com/2020/01/11/storm-surge-brings-crashing-waves-flooding-to-lakefront-areas-that-have-already-been-suffering/

No surprise with the record breaking Great Lakes storm track.

It looks like the models are going for forcing in the MJO 6 and 1- 2 regions the next few weeks. So we’ll have to see what that combination looks like in the actual pattern. Plus the +AAM spike gets added to the mix. So a continuation of La Niña and El Niño influences which shows up in the split flow.

You know it’s a warm January when NYC doesn’t drop below 20 and HPN and ISP stay above 15. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Jan Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 1937 25 0 2 1990 24 0 - 1932 24 0 3 2002 21 0 - 1993 21 0 - 1953 21 0 4 2020 20 9 - 1949 20 0 Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of Jan Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 1990 21 1 2 1953 18 0 3 1993 17 2 4 2020 16 12 - 2002 16 0 5 1960 15 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Jan Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 1990 21 0 2 1993 18 0 3 2020 16 9 4 2002 15 0 - 1998 15 0

Yeah, we may end up needing help from MJO or other factors to get that vortex out of Alaska. This is our first time since the 2006-2012 era that we had such a strong +EPO from December into at last the start of February. The chart below shows how different this is from what we have experienced since 2012. The CPC chart is the inverse of how we typically discuss the EPO. The negative values are what we consider the +EPO. The positive values since 2013 reflect the predominant -EPO over this period. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/teledoc/ep_ts.shtml

Nice post. It really looks like the MJO 3 in mid-December kicked off this extreme +EPO. Also notice how the record MJO 4-6 in January seemed to reinforce this pattern. Maybe we’ll need a strong enough phase 1 at some point in February to reverse this. But there could be other variables that could maintain the +EPO or change it more negative as move though February.