bluewave

Funny how similar that general forecast 500 mb pattern is to January 20-31 last year.

Impressive temperature jump in NW NJ from 45 to 61 in an hour.

More extremes from the jet stream. This is a 5 SD max near 220KT.

NYC already approaching the record high and it’s only 7 am. Current temperature in NYC 59 1/11 63 in 1975 59 in 1980 59 in 1933

This is pretty cool.

The historic snowfall run from 12-13 to 17-18 was epic on Long Island. My guess is that these amounts for a 6 year period may have been a 100 to 200 year event under older climatology. But who knows what the return period will be for this to occur again under our new more extreme climate. Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 2012-2013 0.0 4.2 0.6 3.3 31.4 7.4 0.0 46.9 2013-2014 0.0 0.3 8.1 25.2 24.5 5.4 0.2 63.7 2014-2015 0.0 T 0.4 30.2 13.4 19.7 0.0 63.7 2015-2016 0.0 0.0 T 24.8 13.2 3.2 0.2 41.4 2016-2017 T T 3.2 14.0 14.7 7.4 T 39.3 2017-2018 0.0 T 6.0 22.0 1.4 31.9 4.6 65.9 2018-2019 0.0 4.3 T 0.9 3.5 4.1 T 12.8 2019-2020 0.0 0.1 4.2 0.4 M M M 4.7

It’s very difficult to predict how long the lull periods between active benchmark tracks will last. We had the record breaking 95-96 season followed by the 96-97 to 01-02 lull. The only decent snowfall season in that 6 year run was 00-01. Things really picked up in 02-03 and were great until 05-06. We saw another downturn from 06-07 to 07-08. Some slight improvement for 08-09 before the big ramp up lasting until 10-11. Then another big step down in 11-12 before another uptick in February 2013. Nemo in February 2013 opened up our greatest 6 year benchmark track run through March 2018. Since last year, we have been in a consistent cutter or hugger storm track regime. There were also a few disappointing southern stream suppressed storms like in early December 2018. So the big question is when the rapidly deepening benchmark storm track will make a return.

Like I said, mixing issues with KU benchmark storm tracks are not a problem. We had some mixing issues with the last March 2018 storm and still went 10-20 inches of snow. But these 1-3 or 2-4 front end thumps then sleet or rain have been a big disappointment since last winter. That’s what we get with storm tracks to our west that cut or hug. Hopefully, we return to a rapidly deepening benchmark storm track.

The South Shore only had 4 inches last March vs 30 plus in March 2018. Nobody minds some mixing if you get double digit snowfall total. But you need rapidly deepening dynamic systems to the south to pull that off. Hopefully, the intense benchmark storm track will come back to life soon.

It wasn’t that long ago. We had plenty of benchmark storm tracks with double digit snowfall at the coast right through March 2018. Last winter we started with the cutter and hugger storm tracks where interior sections had the heaviest amounts.

It would be nice. But the coastal posters will be happy when they see the storm track shift south closer to the Delmarva.

We’ll know the storm track has improved when we get an amped system with no P-Type issues. That’s what we have been waiting for. People at the coast will be happy when they get all snow from start to finish.

Even Long Island can get into the record warmth with the flow becoming more westerly behind the Sunday morning squall potential.

It will be interesting to see if the squall potential early Sunday can mix down some of the stronger winds aloft. The Euro maintains the squall with record high temperatures and dewpoints in the 60’s. This has got a more spring look to it than something we normally see in January.

That AO and NAO reversal was so extreme, the models could easily see it from 11-15 days out. Newark set their record snowfall for 33 days. Winter didn’t return again until Nemo in February 2013. Maximum 33-Day Total Snowfall for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Value Ending Date Missing Days Last value also occurred in one or more previous years. Period of record: 1931-02-01 to 2020-01-08 1 61.5 2011-01-27 0 2 53.6 2011-01-26 0 3 48.7 1978-02-14 0 4 45.7 1978-02-18 0 5 45.5 1961-02-16 0 6 45.2 1978-02-13 0 7 45.0 1978-02-15 0 8 44.9 1978-02-17 0 - 44.9 1978-02-16 0 10 44.8 1961-02-15 0

Could be an interesting squall line early Sunday with the record warmth. We’ll have to see how much of the LLJ any convection can mix down.

What’s odd about seasonal snowfall climatology?

Can you try reading what I actually said vs what personal biases you are bringing to the discussion. The bulk means the majority of the seasonal snowfall. The seasons where some locations had more snowfall before January 20th than after are few and far between. Some stations pulled this off in 95-96, 03-04, and 10-11. But they are the exception rather than the rule. So the recent decadal snowfall that I posted is representative of that distribution. Newark snowfall before January 20th.....after January 20th 1996.....46.9....31.5 2011.....37.9....30.3 2004.....30.9.....16.9

The bulk of our seasonal snowfall usually comes after January 19th. Just goes to show what an extreme outlier the 10-11 winter was. NYC snowfall ............By January 19th......After January 19th 18-19....7.1......13.4 17-18....17.9....23.0 16-17....10.1....20.1 15-16....0.4......32.4 14-15....3.7......46.6 13-14....15.0....42.4 12-13....5.1.....21.0 11-12....2.9.....4.5 10-11...31.9....30.0 09-10....13.2...38.2

I just remember the paper getting posted on twitter a few years ago when the EPS was showing too weak a phase 6. https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00480.1?mobileUi=0 show the composite maps for the forecasts initialized with the strong MJO in phase 5. This is the phase in which VarEPS shows the largest difference between the predictability and prediction skill, while CFSv2 has relatively better prediction skill (Fig. 7). The skill difference between the two systems mainly results from the wind field. The VarEPS does not predict the propagation signal, while CFSv2 predicts the amplitude realistically with propagation of zonal wind field anomaly.

The GEFS has one of the most amplified phase 4-7 transits that we have seen in January. Gets over to phase 7 around January 20th. So a more -EPO gradient pattern potentially emerging between the 20th and 24th. Would probably be around February 1st that the MJO gets closer to phase 8.

Thanks for posting. A stronger phase 7 could set up a -EPO gradient pattern in late January.

Patience is required in eventually getting to a colder pattern since MJO’s have become so extreme. This one already caused catastrophic flooding due to the record SST’s north of Australia. https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2020/01/01/not-ordinary-rain-worst-rainfall-in-over-decade-causes-massive-floods-in-jakarta.html Jakarta average rainfall intensity during big floods The rainfall intensity recorded on Dec. 31, 2019 is deemed the highest ever occurred in Jakarta compared to other years of when big flood occurred in the capital city.

We discussed it in the MJO posts earlier today. The EPS tends to be too weak in MJO phase 6 following phase 5. So the other models have a slightly different pattern around day 10 due to the stronger MJO phase 6.

We can get help from the -EPO as soon as we get closer to phase 7 in late January. Here is what the MJO did the last 2 times we had such an amplified phase 4-5 passage in January. Both times we eventually got over closer to phase 8 in February.