bluewave

This was a controversial decision when it was made in 2016. https://blogs.agu.org/wildwildscience/2016/07/28/noaa-makes-decision-new-global-weather-model-controversy-likely/ NOAA has decided on the nuts and bolts of a new, next generation, weather model that will replace the present Global Forecast System (GFS model), and the choice is sure to spark some controversy. The choice boiled down to a system called MPAS vs FV3. Many meteorologists were rooting for MPAS, which was developed by NCAR, while NOAA was leaning toward the FV3 which was a project of the GFDL Lab. Dr. Cliff Mass (at the Univ. of Washington) has written several blog posts about how we have fallen behind in numerical weather modelling, and has been championing the MPAS system as the much better way forward. It looks like this will not happen, based on news I just heard about tonight. NOAA chose the FV3 today, instead of MPAS (The video above shows the FV3 in action) and I am anxious to hear the debate that will soon ensue. There are two sides to this issue, and smart people have different opinions on both sides, and NOAA’s press release ishere. I’ve asked Cliff Mass for a comment, and will update this post when new info arrives. NOAA folks, and others, who favor the FV3 core, I would love to share your views as well.

Imagine living an a place where you could have almost 100” of snow to date during your 4th warmest winter. Time Series Summary for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx) - Dec through Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2015-2016 21.6 0 2 2009-2010 21.0 0 3 2001-2002 19.3 0 4 2019-2020 18.2 19 5 1959-1960 17.7 0 Time Series Summary for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx) - Oct through Sep Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Season Total Snowfall Missing Count 2019-2020 92.8 233

That -560 meter 500 mb height anomaly on the EPS looks close to the record lowest for the North Atlantic.

Euro has twin 928 mb lows.

Last time that NYC dropped below 20 degrees was December 19th. Brief cool down with temperatures reaching 50 or warmer a few days before and after.

More quick flights coming up.

It’s one storm system after another with this supercharged jet stream pattern. Another 200 kt jet max coming up. Numerous maxes in the 4 to 5 sd range this winter. January 25th was my last heavy rain storm since December. But a ton of small and medium rainfall events.

Hopefully, this cold bias gets fixed before next winter. We knew this last winter while the FV3 was the parallel before it became operational. https://www.wired.com/story/the-governments-new-weather-model-faces-a-storm-of-protest/ The government’s new weather forecast model has a slight problem: It predicts that outside temperatures will be a few degrees colder than what nature delivers. This “cold bias” means that local meteorologists are abandoning the National Weather Service in favor of forecasts produced by British and European weather agencies. For the past few weeks, the National Weather Service has been forecasting snowfall that ends up disappearing, according to Doug Kammerer, chief meteorologist at WRC-TV in Washington, DC. “It’s just not performing well,” Kammerer says. “It has continued to show us getting big-time snowstorms in this area, where the European model will not show it.” https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/

9 days in February with at least a T of rain so far. But not much total rainfall to show for it. We can remember the heavier rainfall forecasts for last Friday got lighter the close in we got. Welcome to Seattle. Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Precipitation 2020-02-01 T 2020-02-02 0.07 2020-02-03 T 2020-02-04 T 2020-02-05 T 2020-02-06 0.51 2020-02-07 0.25 2020-02-08 0.00 2020-02-09 0.00 2020-02-10 0.37 2020-02-11 0.31

NYC is currently tied with 16-17 for 6th warmest winter so far. Snowfall ranks in 9th lowest so far for the DJF met winter period. This is a little ahead of last winter which finished 7th lowest. The full seasonal snowfall from fall to spring is currently 4th lowest. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Dec through Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2001-2002 41.6 0 2 2015-2016 41.0 0 3 2011-2012 40.5 0 4 1931-1932 40.2 0 5 1997-1998 39.6 0 6 2019-2020 39.3 19 - 2016-2017 39.3 0 7 1990-1991 39.1 0 8 1998-1999 38.6 0 9 1948-1949 38.5 0 10 1889-1890 38.4 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Dec through Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Total Snowfall Missing Count 1 1997-1998 0.5 0 2 1918-1919 1.1 0 3 1972-1973 2.6 0 4 1931-1932 2.7 0 5 1991-1992 3.2 0 6 2001-2002 3.5 0 7 2018-2019 3.7 0 8 2011-2012 4.5 0 9 2019-2020 4.8 19 10 1989-1990 5.0 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30 Missing Count 1 1973-04-30 2.8 0 2 2002-04-30 3.5 0 3 1919-04-30 3.8 0 4 2020-04-30 4.8 81 5 1901-04-30 5.1 2 6 1932-04-30 5.3 0 7 1998-04-30 5.5 0 8 2012-04-30 7.4 0 9 1989-04-30 8.1 0 - 1878-04-30 8.1 0 10 1951-04-30 9.3 0

I agree. They think that it was a mistake or some type of targeted troll activity. He has one of the best climatology related accounts on twitter. https://weather.com/safety/winter/news/2020-01-30-cloudiest-stretch-january-midwest-chicago-minneapolis Aren't Midwest Winters Always Cloudy? In much of the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and interior Northeast, an average January day is at least 70 percent cloud covered, according to an analysis from Alaska-based climatologist, Brian Brettschneider.

^^^^^ The small area cold departures across the Northern Hemisphere were focused into Alaska and Greenland under this extreme pattern.

The historic December 2015 +13 departure marked a shift to this new regime. The cold and snowy 13-14 and 14-15 winters seem like they were from a whole different era. The main options since then have been warm and snowy or warm and less snowy.

This +EPO /+AO pattern looks stuck in place until further notice. Just a brief Arctic shot this weekend within a continuing warm pattern. Last March saw some improvement due to the big -EPO. But who knows this year with the way things have been going.

True. We have to go all the way back to 2008 for no accumulations between 1-20 and 2-10. At least we got the whiteout squall last winter during this period. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Total Snowfall Jan 20 to Feb 10 Missing Count 2020-02-10 T 1 2019-02-10 0.4 0 2018-02-10 1.5 0 2017-02-10 10.4 0 2016-02-10 30.1 0 2015-02-10 19.8 0 2014-02-10 26.5 0 2013-02-10 13.7 0 2012-02-10 4.3 0 2011-02-10 25.8 0 2010-02-10 12.3 0 2009-02-10 7.3 0 2008-02-10 T 0

Only if you are north of 84 in a pattern like this.

We know that the El Niño trying to come on with a Niña-like background pattern hasn’t worked last 2 winters. So maybe a stronger La Niña or strong enough El Niño will be needed to change things up next year. But who really knows with all these extremes competing with each other.

They are coming so fast that it’s easy to lose track of them. Just a remarkably unfavorable MJO, +EPO, and +AO combination this winter.

It’s no exaggeration to say that this is off the chart.

These brief Arctic shots within a warmer pattern have become common in recent years. Figures that it originates in Alaska which has been one of the few Northern Hemisphere regions to see any extended cold this winter.

These are some of the fastest jet stream winds that we have seen over the North Atlantic.

Looks like this is currently the 10th highest reading.

NYC is currently in 7th place for warmest winter through February 8th at 39.2 degrees. A final average temperature of 38.4 or warmer qualifies for the DJF top 10. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Dec 1 to Feb 8 Missing Count 1 2016-02-08 42.7 0 2 2002-02-08 41.5 0 - 1932-02-08 41.5 0 4 2012-02-08 40.4 0 5 1991-02-08 39.7 0 6 1950-02-08 39.4 0 7 2020-02-08 39.2 0 8 1933-02-08 39.1 0 9 1998-02-08 39.0 0 10 1999-02-08 38.9 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2001-2002 41.5 0 2 2015-2016 41.0 0 3 2011-2012 40.5 0 4 1931-1932 40.1 0 5 1997-1998 39.6 0 6 2016-2017 39.3 0 7 1990-1991 39.1 0 8 1998-1999 38.6 0 9 1948-1949 38.5 0 10 1889-1890 38.4 0

We have the typical snowfall distribution across the region for Great Lakes cutter and coastal hugger storm tracks. Northern New England is always favored for the heaviest snowfall with storm tracks like this. BTV to CAR have above normal snowfall to date. A zone of close to normal from BGM to ALB. Then below normal from PHI to BOS. Seasonal snowfall through February 8th .........Actual Snowfall.....Normal snowfall BTV....56.6...49.3 CAR...88.7...66.7 BGM..52.5...51.7 ALB...38.2....38.5 BOS...14.9....26.3 NYC.....4.8....14.7 ISP.......6.8.....14.5 PHI......0.3.....13.0