bluewave

Pretty impressive to go 4 consecutive days with average wind speeds of 5 mph or lower. Be interesting to see if the fog that @forkyforkmentioned on the NAM verifies. Could be quite dense if the winds remain calm under the inversion. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=71&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=ISP&year=2020&month=11&units=MPH&dpi=100&_fmt=png

Yeah, pretty impressive PAC Jet extension should maintain this -PNA SE Ridge pattern until further notice.

This is our first 591 dm ridge during the month of November.

This record ridge with lower dew points and light winds is setting up an unusual temperature pattern for us. We get record highs during the day and strong radiational cooling at night. Quite a departure from our typical record warm minimums.

Those were the old days when we would get a cold October before a cold winter.

2 record highs in a row for JFK.

Pretty impressive for ISP to beat their daily record high set in 2011 by 6 degrees.

November 1993 was a much cooler month. Only 1 day of real warmth around the 15th with NYC reaching 80° and JFK 77°. NYC finished +1.1 and JFK -0.7.

Our latest 590 dm ridge of the year. 21 500 5900

Long Island is the warm spot around the area at 10 am. MacArthur/ISP MOSUNNY 70 48 45 N5 30.37S Shirley SUNNY 71 47 42 N7 30.38R

This is one of those rare times that LGA dropped 2° cooler than NYC with calm winds.

We are breaking warm records recently set in 2015.

Record high of 73° at JFK. This beats the previous record of 70°set back in 2015.

Record high of 75° at POU.

Looks like a new record high for JFK. The most recent record high was set back in 2015. Kennedy Intl MOSUNNY 72 47 40 SW9 11/7 70 in 2015 66 in 2001 66 in 1975

The 76° so far at Newark is just 2° off the record high of 78°. Newark Liberty MOSUNNY 76 43 07 Nov 12:51 pm 76 43 31 SW 5 10.00 FEW250 30.22 1023.8 30.24 76 48 11/7 78 in 1938 71 in 2015 71 in 1996+

Walt, great thread. The 2” PWATS you mention would be a new record for November. So there is the potential for heavy rains if the tropical moisture plume gets close enough.

Newark needs to keep the November 70° day streak going through Monday for the new record. 1938, 1982,1975, and 1994 all had 4 consecutive days. So Newark needs to reach at least 5 consecutive days for the new November record. 2020-11-05 70 2020-11-06 73 1938-11-05 75 1938-11-06 72 1938-11-07 78 1938-11-08 72 1975-11-07 71 1975-11-08 76 1975-11-09 75 1975-11-10 70 1982-11-01 77 1982-11-02 79 1982-11-03 74 1982-11-04 72 1994-11-03 71 1994-11-04 79 1994-11-05 76 1994-11-06 71

The guidance corrected warmer today. So it looks like the 70° day streak that started yesterday will continue into next week. Not really a surprise given the record 591 DM ridge for November. KEWR GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 11/06/2020 1200 UTC FHR 24 36| 48 60| 72 84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192 SAT 07| SUN 08| MON 09| TUE 10| WED 11| THU 12| FRI 13|SAT CLIMO N/X 53 73| 52 75| 52 73| 55 70| 59 71| 56 65| 47 58| 44 39 55

Areas to our north are approaching record highs for the date. BDL is within a few degrees of the record set back in 2015. Pretty good high temperature guidance beat today. Bradley Intl MOSUNNY 74 36 Almanac for HARTFORD-BRADLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, CT November 6, 2020 Daily Data Observed Normal Record Highest Record Lowest Max Temperature M 55 76 in 2015 33 in 1953

Models continuing with near record 500 mb positive height anomalies for November this weekend. The November record for the NYC area is 589dm from the SPC sounding climo site. So an unusually warm November weekend coming up.

Great post. The quick reversal from -AO in October to +AO in November is something that we normally see during an El Niño. This may be related to lingering neutral to positive IOD which is also more Niño-like. The IO standing wave the models have for November was implicated in the very strong PV and +NAO +AO last winter. The current +PMM with near record SST warmth north of such a strong La Niña cold tongue is also a first for a La Niña. A very warm November has also been associated with El Niño’s in the past. Several times this warm November during an El Niño carried over into December. So such an occurrence this year would be different than the typical front loaded La Niña winter progression. There have also been several very warm La Niña Novembers followed by warm Decembers. On the other hand, a warmer PMM was present for our most recent La Niña warm November in 2016. That was a near record warm winter. But it may have been the +PMM allowing occasional poleward extensions of the North Pacific Ridge into Alaska. Those were also accompanied by short -NAO -AO episodes for respectable seasonal snowfall despite the record warmth. There are many factors this year which could interact. We may just have to wait and see how things look in another month or so. But even beyond the specific ENSO conditions and interactions, we have just seen the warmest 5 winter stretch on record. Predictability of European winter 2019/20: Indian Ocean dipole impacts on the NAO https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/asl.1005

70° now at Newark. They need to reach 5 to get into the November top 3. 2015 was the last November with 5 days reaching 70°. Newark Liberty MOSUNNY 70 42 36 SW14G21 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Nov Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 70 Missing Count 1 1975 7 0 2 1994 6 0 - 1990 6 0 - 1953 6 0 - 1931 6 0 3 2015 5 0 - 2001 5 0 - 1982 5 0 - 1938 5 0

An October -AO followed by a +AO in November is usually something we see during an El Niño. I wonder if this unusual AO reversal for a La Niña is related to such a strong +PMM and slightly positive IOD? 2020 2.419 3.417 2.641 0.928 -0.027 -0.122 -0.412 -0.381 0.631 -0.072 2015 1.092 1.043 1.837 1.216 0.763 0.427 -1.108 -0.689 -0.165 -0.250 1.945 1.444 2009 0.800 -0.672 0.121 0.973 1.194 -1.351 -1.356 -0.054 0.875 -1.540 0.459 -3.413 2006 -0.170 -0.156 -1.604 0.138 0.156 1.071 0.103 -0.265 0.606 -1.029 0.521 2.282 2004 -1.686 -1.528 0.318 -0.409 -0.094 -0.236 -0.201 -0.720 0.855 -0.515 0.678 1.230

The big weather swings continue with all-time November warmth in Minnesota following the snowiest October on record.