bluewave

Looks like 94 was the high for EWR and LGA today. Could see maxes a few degrees higher on Monday in the 95-97 range. There will be a small area of 20c 850 temps near Boston tomorrow.

Down to 87 now at FRG with the sea breeze after a high of 90.

Sea breeze in now along the South Shore. The dew point jumped from 65 to 72 last few hours at Wantagh. 86/72/HX92

This is a new pattern for us. Emerging negative Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation index in spite of warm subtropics https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-11046-x Sea surface temperatures in the northern North Atlantic have shown a marked decrease over the past several years. The sea surface in the subpolar gyre is now as cold as it was during the last cold phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation index in the 1990s. This climate index is associated with shifts in hurricane activity, rainfall patterns and intensity, and changes in fish populations. However, unlike the last cold period in the Atlantic, the spatial pattern of sea surface temperature anomalies in the Atlantic is not uniformly cool, but instead has anomalously cold temperatures in the subpolar gyre, warm temperatures in the subtropics and cool anomalies over the tropics. The tripole pattern of anomalies has increased the subpolar to subtropical meridional gradient in SSTs, which are not represented by the AMO index value, but which may lead to increased atmospheric baroclinicity and storminess. Here we show that the recent Atlantic cooling is likely to persist, as predicted by a statistical forecast of subsurface ocean temperatures and consistent with the irreversible nature of watermass changes involved in the recent cooling of the subpolar gyre.

6th highest number of days for LGA reaching 90 degrees by August 4th. This is the first time LGA had 20 days by August 4th since 2012. LGA just needs 6 more days in 2018 of 90 or higher to reach the top 10 highest year list. #1 for LGA in a year is 48 days with the 10th highest number of days at 26. Highest # of LGA 90 degree days by 8-4 #1....34...2010 #2....25...2012....1995...1991 #3....24...2002 #4...23....1955 #5...22....1949 #6...20....2018....2005...1993...1952

Today makes 21 days at JFK with a 75 degree or higher maximum dew point. This is the extreme humidity version of Newark going over 20 days with a maximum temperature of 95 degrees or higher. The last year Newark did this was in 2010. This is the first time that JFK had 17 or more days for 3 consecutive years. The only time EWR had 3 consecutive years with 17 or more 95 degree days was 2010 to 2012. JFK 75 degree or higher maximum dew point days #1...24....1983 #2...21....2018 so far #3...19....2016 #4...17....2017...1995 #5...16....1984 EWR 95 degree or greater maximum temperature days #1...25...1993 #2...21...2010 #3...20...1988...1944 #4...17...2012...2011...2002....1955 #5...16....1946

Heaviest downpour of August so far here in SW Suffolk. Picked up a quick .50.

Wantagh picked up .58 in 20 minutes so far. http://www.nysmesonet.org/mesonow#?stid=WANT

Heavy downpours along the South Shore right now moving NNE.

Radar estimates of close to .50 with that cell along the North Shore of Suffolk.

Second batch of storms developing further east. Just had a heavy storm pop over Western Suffolk with more storms to the south. https://www.njweather.org/maps/nj-statewide-radar-1-hour-loop

https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2018/08/ice-loss-speeds-up-during-second-half-of-july/ Despite finishing ninth lowest in the monthly average, ice loss was rapid during the month. As a result, by July 31 daily extent tracked fourth lowest in the satellite record, just below the extent seen last year at this time, and also just above that seen in 2007, 2011, and 2012.

Strongest July WAR on record with the 500 mb height anomaly beating out 2013. Record heat in New England, humidity here, and rainfall just to our SW and W.

Yeah, good signal for the axis of heavier convection expanding further east later tonight into Saturday morning.

Yeah, we have never seen a tropical dew point surge like this for 3 consecutive years.

Only the second time that JFK reached 20 days of 75 degree or higher dew points today. #1....24 days....1983 #2....20 days....2018 #3....19 days....2016 #4....18 days....1999 #5....17 days....2017....1995

80 degree dew point at ACY. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/meteogram/link.shtml?choice=KACY

If ISP can hold the 77 low through midnight, then it will rank as the 3rd warmest minimum for the month of August. ISP warmest August minimums #1.....80....2006 #2.....78....2016...1999 #3.....77....2018....2006...2005...1988

Today is the 19th day at JFK this year with a maximum dew point of 75 or higher. 2018 now is tied with 2016 for the 2nd highest number of days days on record. #1....24 days......1983 #2....19 days......2018....2016 #3....18 days.....1999 #4....17 days.....2017....1995 #5....16 days......1984

Saw a 79 degree dew point a few hours ago at Newburgh.

Migration fallouts along the flyway can be pretty wild. I have seen a number of them on the South Shore barrier islands. http://www.thenaturalistsnotebook.com/our-blog/migrating-bird-fallout-on-machias-seal-island

Big guidance beat for LGA with the 93 high. MAXIMUM 93 242 PM

84/78 at JFK with a HX of 95.

Blue skies along the immediate South Shore with the cloud streets training just to the north. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/GOES_PA/loop60.html

JFK has those Miami dew points again. 11am JFK......80/78 MIA.....84/78