bluewave

Yeah, you can see it showing up on the HRRR. Numerous 0Z EPS members had a closer in solution for the strongest low.

The GFS and HRRR are more bullish on the closer in low to the area becoming strongest. Be interesting to the the 12z Euro and 18z NAM.

And the Boxing Day blizzard December record lowest pressure on Cape Cod a few months later. https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/roth/SLPrecords.html

The low pressure record for Cape Cod is only 2 years old with storm in late October 2017. New low pressure records for October around the region were set in 2006, 2012, and 2017. Just goes to show how extreme our weather patterns have become.

The very slow Arctic sea ice extent gains continue. The NSIDC 5 day extent just fell below 2012 for a new mid-October record low of 5.118 million sq km. The previous record lowest extent value for October 15th was 5.240 million sq km.

The NAO has actually been negative much of the month so far. But the Niña-like Pacific has dominated the pattern.

It’s probably the GFS cold bias just overdoing things again. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/05/06/weather-service-says-its-upgraded-american-forecasting-model-is-about-ready-prime-time/ However, the memo noted that some cold bias remains in the model, which may still inflate snow amounts, mainly in forecasts three or more days into the future. “The cold bias has been substantially reduced, but it is still there,” Gross said. “You get a cold bias, you can still get too much snow. That’s what we’re working on now and figuring out what to do.”

Yeah, 94-95 and 97-98. This time the other factors such as ENSO and NPM are much different. So we are looking at yet another new SST configuration in the Indio-Pacific.

It will probably be a wait and see how this near record IOD and other factors set the table for the winter.

The last week of October will probably cool down if the weak convection near the dateline verifies. That would actually be a more Niño-like pattern for a change. Ventrice twitter freebie:

Super typhoon recurve special.

Looks like a stormy pattern for the 2nd half October. The mean trough position shifts to the MW/GL while the WAR flexes.

Updated for the first record breaking storm system to make headlines this October. 2019 Record Early Season Snows For Upper Rockies And Plains https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/2019-10-14-record-snowiest-start-season-october-northern-rockies-plains

It eventually merges with the low just to the west and loops NW into SE New England. The system is so convective, that the models are still struggling with where the best convective blobs and low pressure forms. This one may come right down to the wire.

The 12z NAM is 10 mb deeper than any previous system in SE New England during October. https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/roth/SLPrecords.html

This has to be one of the more convective systems that we have seen this time of year. Check out the big convective blob low pressure jumps of the last 2 NAM runs. Next several runs should be interesting.

The Euro is showing multiple lows like the NAM. We probably have to wait to see which one becomes strongest. That will determine the placement of strongest winds and heaviest rains.

Absolutely. Records have been falling throughout the year since 2016. The 2012 minimum is the one record that hasn’t been surpassed since then. Probably a less important data point relative to the bigger picture. Data courtesy of Zack Labe and NSIDC Record low #Arctic sea ice extent months - @NSIDC data (satellite-era from 1978/1979) --------------------- 2018 : January 2018 : February 2017 : March 2019 : April 2016: May 2016: June 2019: July 2012: August 2012: September 2012: October 2016: November 2016: December

This is the 3rd October stall in extent gains since 2016. But 2019 is starting from a lower point so it was able to drop lower than 2012.

It will be interesting to see exactly where the remnant tropical energy from near Baja California phases with the closed low in the Great Lakes. The tropical input looks like why the models are so wet and deep with the low. Just need to pin down the exact track.

We could be talking about a phaser now for Wednesday. Southern stream gets going quicker and tries to phase in with the bowling ball crossing the Great Lakes. The exact track of the Southern stream will determine our rain and wind impacts.

The opposite of the 80’s with so many winters clustering around that 20-30” range. Those were considered good winters for us back then. Time Series Summary for JFK INTL AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30 Missing Count 1980-04-30 11.0 0 1981-04-30 16.5 0 1982-04-30 24.9 0 1983-04-30 32.1 0 1984-04-30 22.0 0 1985-04-30 27.3 0 1986-04-30 19.3 0 1987-04-30 23.1 0 1988-04-30 19.7 0 1989-04-30 8.2 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30 Missing Count 1980-04-30 9.0 0 1981-04-30 20.8 0 1982-04-30 35.4 0 1983-04-30 31.9 0 1984-04-30 27.5 0 1985-04-30 26.9 0 1986-04-30 15.2 0 1987-04-30 22.5 0 1988-04-30 19.5 0 1989-04-30 19.0 0

It’s interesting that the 20”-30” range on Long Island has been nonexistent since 2010. Our snowfall patterns have become so extreme. Time Series Summary for JFK INTL AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30 Missing Count 1 2019-04-30 14.7 0 2 2018-04-30 35.5 0 3 2017-04-30 30.9 0 4 2016-04-30 41.4 0 5 2015-04-30 44.2 0 6 2014-04-30 45.6 0 7 2013-04-30 17.6 0 8 2012-04-30 3.7 0 9 2011-04-30 42.0 0 10 2010-04-30 47.2 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30 Missing Count 2019-04-30 12.8 0 2018-04-30 65.9 0 2017-04-30 39.3 0 2016-04-30 41.4 0 2015-04-30 63.7 0 2014-04-30 63.7 0 2013-04-30 46.9 0 2012-04-30 4.7 0 2011-04-30 55.3 0 2010-04-30 53.8 0

The 0z models were even stronger with the secondary low development. The faster the upper low goes negative tilt, the closer the surface low with heavy rain and strong winds is to us.

Hard to believe the last time NYC had all 3 OND months with below normal temperatures was 2002. Oct 02...-1.7 Nov 02...-1.7 Dec 02...-1.5