bluewave

It’s forecast was much cooler in the low to mid 80s at 9am near JFK.

The interesting thing is that the 500mb record heights emerged prior to any SST signal. So once the SSTs below reach a certain level a feedback process probably kicks in perpetuating the record ridge persistence even further. But it would be interesting to know which specific area of the planet warmed past a certain threshold leading to the emergence of the ridge before the SST lagged response. My guess the initial 500mb Rossby Wave train impulse began somewhere closer to the tropics. Perhaps the Indio Pacific warm pool. But there could also be an interplay between the Atlantic and Pacific at work.

Both 2011 and 2021 had 10”+ flooding rainfall events later in the summer. So we’ll see if this monsoon-like rainfall pattern repeats again later this summer. Those 2 last Niña summers were defined by record rains following record heat. 2021 Monthly Data for August 2021 for Upton NY NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Total Precipitation NY BROOKLYN 3.1 NW CoCoRaHS 11.85 NJ RINGWOOD 3.0 SSE CoCoRaHS 11.38 NJ WEST MILFORD TWP 2.5 SSE CoCoRaHS 10.90 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 10.32 NJ HARRISON COOP 10.24 Monthly Data for July 2021 for Upton NY NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Total Precipitation NY PORT WASHINGTON 0.8 N CoCoRaHS 14.76 CT NORTHFORD 0.8 SW CoCoRaHS 12.54 CT DARIEN 3.6 N CoCoRaHS 12.06 CT DARIEN 2.4 NW CoCoRaHS 11.43 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 11.09 CT STRATFORD 0.9 W CoCoRaHS 11.04 CT WESTPORT 2.5 ENE CoCoRaHS 11.01 CT NORWALK 2.9 NNW CoCoRaHS 10.98 CT NORWALK 1.4 ENE CoCoRaHS 10.75 CT DARIEN 1.8 ENE CoCoRaHS 10.71 NY ALBERTSON 0.2 SSE CoCoRaHS 10.68 CT STAMFORD 4.2 S CoCoRaHS 10.62 CT DURHAM 2.2 SSW CoCoRaHS 10.58 NY QUEENS 3.7 N CoCoRaHS 10.54 CT NEW CANAAN 1.9 ENE CoCoRaHS 10.48 NJ LINDEN 2.2 NW CoCoRaHS 10.32 CT WEST HAVEN 0.8 W CoCoRaHS 10.29 CT REDDING 1.4 E CoCoRaHS 10.25 CT MIDDLEFIELD 0.6 SE CoCoRaHS 10.24 NY LOCUST VALLEY 0.3 E CoCoRaHS 10.13 Monthly Data for August 2011 for Upton NY NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Total Precipitation NY FLORAL PARK 0.4 W CoCoRaHS 24.34 NY MONROE 1.7 SE CoCoRaHS 20.60 NJ WEST MILFORD TWP 3.2 NE CoCoRaHS 19.95 NJ PLAINFIELD COOP 19.76 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 18.95 NJ CRANFORD COOP 18.93 NJ WESTFIELD 1.0 NE CoCoRaHS 18.85 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 18.79 NJ HARRISON COOP 18.58 NJ WOODCLIFF LAKE COOP 18.25 NJ LITTLE FALLS TWP 0.5 WNW CoCoRaHS 17.91 NY STATEN ISLAND 1.4 SE CoCoRaHS 17.85 NJ NEW PROVIDENCE 0.8 ESE CoCoRaHS 17.73 NJ PALISADES PARK 0.2 WNW CoCoRaHS 17.70 NY WEST POINT COOP 17.64 NJ NEW MILFORD COOP 17.58 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 17.32 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 17.24 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 17.10 NJ RINGWOOD COOP 17.07 NJ TENAFLY 1.3 W CoCoRaHS 16.90 NJ RIVER VALE TWP 1.5 S CoCoRaHS 16.79 NJ SADDLE BROOK TWP 0.6 E CoCoRaHS 16.75 NY BEACON 4.2 ESE CoCoRaHS 16.68 NY BRONX COOP 16.42 NJ WEST MILFORD TWP 2.5 SSE CoCoRaHS 16.34 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 16.17 NY MINEOLA COOP 16.01 NJ RINGWOOD 3.0 SSE CoCoRaHS 15.98 NY WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK COOP 15.91 NJ SADDLE BROOK TWP 0.3 NNE CoCoRaHS 15.82 NJ HAWTHORNE 0.4 S CoCoRaHS 15.67 NY WARWICK 3.2 WNW CoCoRaHS 15.65 NY YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 1W COOP 15.59 NJ HAWTHORNE 1.0 SSE CoCoRaHS 15.43 NY WALDEN 1 ESE COOP 15.36 NY COLD SPRING 8.1 NE CoCoRaHS 15.03 NJ WANAQUE 0.6 S CoCoRaHS 14.93 NJ KEARNY 1.7 NW CoCoRaHS 14.87 NJ OAKLAND 0.2 WNW CoCoRaHS 14.83 CT BROOKFIELD 3.3 SSE CoCoRaHS 14.70 NJ PATERSON 2.0 W CoCoRaHS 14.67 NJ DEMAREST 0.6 NNW CoCoRaHS 14.50 NJ OAKLAND 0.9 SSE CoCoRaHS 14.46 NJ GLEN ROCK 0.7 SSE CoCoRaHS 14.31 NY NEW ROCHELLE 1.3 S CoCoRaHS 14.26 NY YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 0.6 SW CoCoRaHS 14.20 NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 13.97 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 13.79 CT PUTNAM LAKE COOP 13.68 NY MOUNT SINAI COOP 13.64 NY MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP WBAN 13.52 CT DANBURY MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 13.41 NJ WAYNE TWP 0.8 SSW CoCoRaHS 12.91 NY SETAUKET STRONG COOP 12.87 NY CENTERPORT COOP 12.54 NY SOUTH SALEM 2.1 NW CoCoRaHS 12.52 CT PORTLAND 0.9 S CoCoRaHS 12.29 CT DARIEN 3.6 N CoCoRaHS 12.16 NY CARMEL HAMLET 5.8 N CoCoRaHS 12.14 NY LEVITTOWN 0.2 E CoCoRaHS 12.12 NJ MIDLAND PARK COOP 12.10 CT MERIDEN MARKHAM MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 12.09 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 12.05 NJ WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM COOP 11.70 CT MILFORD 2.9 ESE CoCoRaHS 11.60 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 11.58 NY FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 11.37 CT STEVENSON DAM COOP 11.00 NY BAITING HOLLOW COOP 10.72 NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 10.61 NY NORTHPORT 1.6 NNE CoCoRaHS 10.48 CT NEW HAVEN TWEED AP WBAN 10.04 NY EAST MORICHES 0.6 WNW CoCoRaHS 10.01

The sample size for La Ninas reaching 102° and higher in June is very small. The only 2 years were 2021 and 2011. In 2021 when it reached 103° that was the high for the entire summer. But in 2011 the 102° in June was followed by 108° in late July.

101 HX at JFK with 88°/78°. Kennedy Intl MOSUNNY 88 78 72 NE3 30.08S HX 101

Brownsville in Brooklyn is already 89°. https://www.nysmesonet.org/networks/nyc Brownsville Temp: 89°F

Newark is currently 85° at only 7am. The Euro has the correct temperature from its 0z forecast. It makes a run on 103° later. That would tie the all-time June record set back in 2021. The forecast for tomorrow is a few degrees warmer at 105°.

The record breaking Aleutian Ridge continues to warm the SSTs below leading to these persistent -PDOs again dropping back under -2.00. So the net effect is a record Southeast Ridge like we are seeing this week near 600 dm. This is what is driving such a strong La Niña background pattern. So there is probably a feedback process leading to the record warm subtropical SSTs. The RONI would be much lower if we subtracted the Nino 3.4 tropical SST departures from the subtropical.

You know the airmass is record warm when we hit a record high here in Southern CT yesterday with the sun coming out late. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 433 PM EDT SUN JUN 22 2025 ...RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT BRIDGEPORT CT... THE HIGH TEMPERATURE REACHED 93 DEGREES TODAY AT BRIDGEPORT SIKORSKY AIRPORT. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 93 DEGREES, SET IN 1949. RECORDS FOR THE BRIDGEPORT CT AREA GO BACK TO 1948. ALL CLIMATE DATA ARE CONSIDERED PRELIMINARY UNTIL REVIEWED BY THE NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION (NCEI).

If we get full sun and offshore flow, then I think 102° to 105° will be possible on Tuesday for the warmest spots across the area.

The RGEM and GFS have a regional high around 102°-103° for Tuesday. So if we compromise between them and the Euro, then somebody gets to the 102°-105° range. Since the GFS and RGEM have a small cool bias. Euro does best with full sun and strong WAA.

JFK is approaching a late day 100 heat index. Kennedy Intl PTSUNNY 90 74 59 W12 29.99S HX 99

2010,2011, and 2012 were the toughest 3 year period for our local trees in s long time. First we had the March 2010 high wind event. Then the September 2010 macroburst and tornado. This was followed by Hurricane Irene in August 2011. Then the record late October snowstorm in 2011 which caused so much tree damage. Then Hurricane Sandy in October 2012.

I can still remember all the local ponds nearly drying up that August.

The HRRR has a late day high in the low 90s.

Only if it rains on the day when the expected peak temperatures of any given heatwave are expected to occur. The July 1995 Derecho went just to our north. Then we had the first heat indices near 130° with temps over 100° and dew points near 85°. That was one of the most extreme weather days of the 1990s. The scariest part was probably all the campers in the Adirondacks in tents with 115 mph gusts and one of the most electrified derechos for total CG strikes.

Record heat is often preceded by these MCS systems. The most famous one was in July 1995. A few hours later we had our highest heat indices in the 120s.

Same theme as we have seen for a while. The best beach weather and heat occurs on the week days. While it always finds a way to rain on the weekends.

This is the most extreme weather video that I have ever seen come out of Queens. Harsh language advisory. But it’s very understandable when you see 125 mph winds.

At least this is only a minor nuisance. The major issues with MCS systems is when they aren’t forecast and they are high end severe. This is what happened with the surprise September 2010 NYC tornado and macroburst.

Obviously you have never worked in research.

A continuation of these stuck weather patterns which have been common during the last decade or so.

Because weather modeling research takes money. Meteorology isn’t as high of a priority as other areas of spending around the world. The ECMWF is working in bringing the model down to convection allowing resolutions. But the computing power is very expensive.

While that’s a nice thought, one little MCS today won’t influence the 100° potential in the coming days.

The only good news is that it will dampen the high temperature potential today a bit. But I think Tuesday is still on track to be one of our warmest days of the 2020s. Even models that show the convection are still in the 102° to 105° range Tuesday.