bluewave

The CMC has had one of the worst cold biases of any model this past winter. It’s also been very erratic at times. So better to just use the Euro and GFS suites longer range and then models like HRRR ,HREF, RGEM ..etc within 24-36 hrs.

Areas near the shore could see gusts near 60 mph since there is a 50KT flag just beneath the inversion.

Another example of how ridiculously amplified this pattern is. Record ridge NW of Hawaii…record trough to our west…and record blocking west of Greenland.

The record rainfall last summer kept the 90° days in check. But we have seen many more top 10 years for 90° days since 2010 than we ever did in the past. The reason you feel like we are seeing less 90° days now is due to your location. The heatwaves since the 15-16 super El Niño have featured more onshore flow due to the higher pressures east of New England. So places like JFK get the sea breeze earlier in the day and miss the 90s while areas just to the west get the excessive number of 90° days. We are getting to the point where we need washouts during the summer and spring just in order to avoid record heat like we are currently seeing. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Missing Count 1 2010 54 0 2 2022 49 0 - 1993 49 0 3 1988 43 0 4 2021 41 0 - 2002 41 0 - 1991 41 0 5 2016 40 0 - 1983 40 0 - 1959 40 0 6 1994 39 0 - 1944 39 0 7 2005 37 0 - 1987 37 0 8 2018 36 0 - 1949 36 0 9 2015 35 0 10 1961 34 0

It’s just difficult for the models when we start getting such strong Greenland blocks and cutoff lows. While the -NAO will quickly rebound, the blocking will transfer to Hudson Bay. So the -NAO linking up with the Southeast ridge will transition to an omega blocking pattern. This makes specific forecasts beyond 120 hrs even lower skill than they typically are. So clouds, rain, and onshore flow will continue to be a factor going forward. I know many don’t like all the record warmth of recent years. But the only times we catch a break from all the warmth is when it gets very wet and cloudy with a persistent onshore flow.

The ridge looks like it will be much narrower now than earlier runs were showing so we’ll probably have to wait until the weekend for the specific cloud conditions for the eclipse. New run Old run

Yeah, the models now have this as one of the deepest cutoff lows on record for this time of year. So it’s no surprise the models have more clouds, rain, and onshore flow going forward than just a few days ago. The only way we have avoided record warmth in recent years has been these record wet patterns with plenty of onshore flow.

That the potential is there for winds to beat expectations.

It’s an unusual sounding for this area since we usually doesn’t see an inversion with such a strong easterly jet below the inversion level with this much MUCAPE.

Yeah, very strong winds just above the deck along the Jersey Shore. Coastal sections could see an impressive wind event from the east as the models have a tighter gradient now. This is in top of the heavy rain potential.

While we already knew this, it’s good to see the figures. My guess this is related to the long range Euro inability to see the stronger MJO 4-7 influence. The lower skill shows the competing influences of these marine heatwaves made the stock El Niño forecast less likely compared to previous El Niños.

Depends on how much we can dry out after this week and reduce the onshore flow. The first 80° of the season will be later than average since 2010 due to all the clouds and record rainfall and onshore flow. But we should at least be able to make it back to around 70° by the 2nd week of April. First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year First Value Last Value Difference Minimum 02-21 (2018) 09-25 (2010) 167 Mean 03-31 10-12 193 Maximum 04-18 (2015) 11-07 (2022) 231 2023 04-06 (2023) 83 10-28 (2023) 84 204 2022 04-14 (2022) 88 11-07 (2022) 81 206 2021 03-26 (2021) 84 10-20 (2021) 80 207 2020 03-20 (2020) 80 09-28 (2020) 81 191 2019 04-08 (2019) 80 10-07 (2019) 80 181 2018 02-21 (2018) 80 10-11 (2018) 81 231 2017 04-10 (2017) 82 10-21 (2017) 81 193 2016 03-09 (2016) 82 10-19 (2016) 87 223 2015 04-18 (2015) 82 10-09 (2015) 81 173 2014 04-13 (2014) 83 09-28 (2014) 87 167 2013 04-09 (2013) 85 10-07 (2013) 80 180 2012 04-15 (2012) 80 10-05 (2012) 81 172 2011 03-18 (2011) 80 10-10 (2011) 85 205 2010 04-05 (2010) 81 09-25 (2010) 90 172

No since the major airports are right on the water.

The SPC HREF should be interesting next few days as this could be an unusually convective system near the secondary low. So rainfall totals and winds may exceed what the globals are showing. Plenty of MUCAPE showing up on hi res NAM.

This is going to be one of the strongest closed lows that we have seen this time of year.

Yeah, pretty much. You can see why they radiate better than other spots in NYC. Also why the sea breeze is such a big influence there during the summer. They would probably have more 90° days if the ASOS was on a further NW section of the airport near South Ozone Park or Howard Beach. It’s one of our biggest airports at nearly 5000 acres.

The actual JFK ASOS is very close to Woodmere.

The Howard beach site is quite a distance from the JFK ASOS. The ASOS in JFK is in the eastern portion of the airport next to the 5 towns area of Nassau. This is why JFK radiates better than other portions of NYC. So the JFK ASOS is more than 5 miles away from Howard Beach site since the airport is so big. This is also why the snowfall totals between the sites can be so great.

In the old days a hostile Pacific didn’t didn’t feature the -NAO linking up with the Southeast ridge. This is more a feature of the 2020s -NAO patterns. My guess is that this is related to the record Atlantic SSTs.

Numerous stations with 10.00+ of precipitation this month. Monthly Data for March 2024 for Upton NY NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Total Precipitation NY SMITHTOWN 2.0 SSW CoCoRaHS 12.61 CT SALEM 3.6 SE CoCoRaHS 12.37 CT OAKDALE 2.6 WNW CoCoRaHS 12.15 NY HOWARD BEACH 0.4 NNW CoCoRaHS 11.96 CT NORWICH 2.5 NNE CoCoRaHS 11.93 CT NORWICH 5.2 SE CoCoRaHS 11.75 NY ST. JAMES COOP 11.64 NY DEER PARK 1.0 NE CoCoRaHS 11.58 CT STRATFORD 0.2 ESE CoCoRaHS 11.50 CT GUILFORD CENTER 2.7 WSW CoCoRaHS 11.47 CT EAST LYME 0.5 SW CoCoRaHS 11.40 CT COLCHESTER 0.6 ENE CoCoRaHS 11.36 CT FAIRFIELD 1.5 NE CoCoRaHS 11.30 NY NORTHPORT 1.6 NNE CoCoRaHS 11.27 CT HIGGANUM 0.8 NE CoCoRaHS 11.25 CT JEWETT CITY 3.0 ESE CoCoRaHS 11.18 CT GUILFORD COOP 11.17 CT STRATFORD 0.9 W CoCoRaHS 11.16 CT HIGGANUM 0.7 N CoCoRaHS 11.07 CT MYSTIC 3.4 NW CoCoRaHS 11.05 NY MALVERNE 0.5 SE CoCoRaHS 11.03 NY LITTLE NECK 0.3 SE CoCoRaHS 10.94 CT NORTHFORD 0.8 SW CoCoRaHS 10.94 NY CENTEREACH 1.3 NE CoCoRaHS 10.89 NY SETAUKET-EAST SETAUKET 2.1 WNW CoCoRaHS 10.83 NY CENTERPORT COOP 10.82 CT GRISWOLD 0.9 N CoCoRaHS 10.78 NY SELDEN 1.6 ESE CoCoRaHS 10.73 CT KILLINGWORTH 2.6 ESE CoCoRaHS 10.71 NY MOUNT SINAI COOP 10.69 NY BROOKLYN 3.1 NW CoCoRaHS 10.65 CT ESSEX VILLAGE 0.9 S CoCoRaHS 10.63 NY MANHASSET HILLS 0.2 NNE CoCoRaHS 10.62 CT MIDDLEFIELD 1.4 W CoCoRaHS 10.62 NY ALBERTSON 0.2 SSE CoCoRaHS 10.61 NY BELLMORE 0.9 SSE CoCoRaHS 10.47 NY WANTAGH 0.3 ESE CoCoRaHS 10.46 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 10.45 CT WALLINGFORD CENTER 1.9 WNW CoCoRaHS 10.45 CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN 10.38 NY BRIGHTWATERS 0.7 NNW CoCoRaHS 10.37 NY AMITYVILLE 0.1 WSW CoCoRaHS 10.36 NY MASSAPEQUA 1.1 SE CoCoRaHS 10.29 CT WALLINGFORD CENTER 3.3 NNW CoCoRaHS 10.28 CT NORWICH 5.4 SE CoCoRaHS 10.25 NY PORT JEFFERSON STATION 0.3 SSW CoCoRaHS 10.17 NY MASSAPEQUA PARK 1.2 N CoCoRaHS 10.15 CT NEW CANAAN 1.9 ENE CoCoRaHS 10.13 CT NORWALK 1.4 ENE CoCoRaHS 10.11 NY UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK COOP 10.07 NY BAY SHORE 0.5 ESE CoCoRaHS 10.05 NY RIDGE 1.8 SE CoCoRaHS 10.02

We can add March 2024 to the list with numerous stations recording over 10.00. Monthly Data for March 2024 for Upton NY NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Total Precipitation NY SMITHTOWN 2.0 SSW CoCoRaHS 12.61 CT SALEM 3.6 SE CoCoRaHS 12.37 CT OAKDALE 2.6 WNW CoCoRaHS 12.15 NY HOWARD BEACH 0.4 NNW CoCoRaHS 11.96 CT NORWICH 2.5 NNE CoCoRaHS 11.93 CT NORWICH 5.2 SE CoCoRaHS 11.75 NY ST. JAMES COOP 11.64 NY DEER PARK 1.0 NE CoCoRaHS 11.58 CT STRATFORD 0.2 ESE CoCoRaHS 11.50 CT GUILFORD CENTER 2.7 WSW CoCoRaHS 11.47 CT EAST LYME 0.5 SW CoCoRaHS 11.40 CT COLCHESTER 0.6 ENE CoCoRaHS 11.36 CT FAIRFIELD 1.5 NE CoCoRaHS 11.30 NY NORTHPORT 1.6 NNE CoCoRaHS 11.27 CT HIGGANUM 0.8 NE CoCoRaHS 11.25 CT JEWETT CITY 3.0 ESE CoCoRaHS 11.18 CT GUILFORD COOP 11.17 CT STRATFORD 0.9 W CoCoRaHS 11.16 CT HIGGANUM 0.7 N CoCoRaHS 11.07 CT MYSTIC 3.4 NW CoCoRaHS 11.05 NY MALVERNE 0.5 SE CoCoRaHS 11.03 NY LITTLE NECK 0.3 SE CoCoRaHS 10.94 CT NORTHFORD 0.8 SW CoCoRaHS 10.94 NY CENTEREACH 1.3 NE CoCoRaHS 10.89 NY SETAUKET-EAST SETAUKET 2.1 WNW CoCoRaHS 10.83 NY CENTERPORT COOP 10.82 CT GRISWOLD 0.9 N CoCoRaHS 10.78 NY SELDEN 1.6 ESE CoCoRaHS 10.73 CT KILLINGWORTH 2.6 ESE CoCoRaHS 10.71 NY MOUNT SINAI COOP 10.69 NY BROOKLYN 3.1 NW CoCoRaHS 10.65 CT ESSEX VILLAGE 0.9 S CoCoRaHS 10.63 NY MANHASSET HILLS 0.2 NNE CoCoRaHS 10.62 CT MIDDLEFIELD 1.4 W CoCoRaHS 10.62 NY ALBERTSON 0.2 SSE CoCoRaHS 10.61 NY BELLMORE 0.9 SSE CoCoRaHS 10.47 NY WANTAGH 0.3 ESE CoCoRaHS 10.46 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 10.45 CT WALLINGFORD CENTER 1.9 WNW CoCoRaHS 10.45 CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN 10.38 NY BRIGHTWATERS 0.7 NNW CoCoRaHS 10.37 NY AMITYVILLE 0.1 WSW CoCoRaHS 10.36 NY MASSAPEQUA 1.1 SE CoCoRaHS 10.29 CT WALLINGFORD CENTER 3.3 NNW CoCoRaHS 10.28 CT NORWICH 5.4 SE CoCoRaHS 10.25 NY PORT JEFFERSON STATION 0.3 SSW CoCoRaHS 10.17 NY MASSAPEQUA PARK 1.2 N CoCoRaHS 10.15 CT NEW CANAAN 1.9 ENE CoCoRaHS 10.13 CT NORWALK 1.4 ENE CoCoRaHS 10.11 NY UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK COOP 10.07 NY BAY SHORE 0.5 ESE CoCoRaHS 10.05 NY RIDGE 1.8 SE CoCoRaHS 10.02

0z guidance coming in stronger with the primary now which is cutting to Chicago instead of Buffalo with the stronger Southeast ridge forcing the phasing further west. So this could set a new record for one of our longest and slowest spring cutoffs. Models still have showers and clouds into Saturday with the cutoff low. New run stronger Southeast ridge linking up with -NAO forcing phase and primary low further west Old run weaker Southeast ridge Even older run with a more suppressed Southeast ridge

The Southeast ridge has become a big player since the 15-16 super El Niño. New run Old run

Yeah, these -NAO patterns have been changing in recent years. They have tended to link up with the Southeast ridge more. My guess is that it’s related to the record Atlantic SSTs and possibly other marine heatwaves across the planet. We have seen how models have been underestimating this factor longer range. So storm systems start out days 6-10 more suppressed and colder only to correct more north or northwest and warmer under 5 days. I know people follow the model headline scores for the Northern Hemisphere. But this issue near the East Coast isn’t something that shows up in these model forecast statistics. So we have to take this model bias into account when looking at longer range forecasts.

Models feeling the stronger Southeast ridge now so the 0z guidance came further north. Same northward correction we have been seeing all winter. The good news now is that it’s April and most people would want a warmer solution. So a continuation of the -NAO linking up with the Southeast ridge. Also a trend to deeper primary so the secondary isn’t nearly as strong as in earlier runs. Still a good soaker for the area but with a less intense low pressure. New run Old run