bluewave

Timing wise the first 32° in NYC usually occurs around a similar time of the first hard freeze of 28° at ISP and HPN. So those similar benchmarks for fall cold still haven’t been met at those locations either. The most noteworthy lack of cold is a little further inland at SMQ. They still haven’t reached 25° for their normally colder location which is currently 3rd latest since 1999.

It’s all proportional since numerous stations outside the heat island haven’t had their first hard freeze yet. So more a lack of cold air this fall. The strong winds have made it seem colder than it has actually been.

Strong winds continue to be the big story this month with all the lows racing through the Eastern Great Lakes and New England.

Most of us had a weaker 500 mb PNA this December than last year using different methods.

NYC and LGA may have to wait until December for their first freeze with the big trough taking up residence next few weeks out West. New York City... Central Park, NY Ptcldy Ptcldy Ptcldy Ptcldy Mocldy Mocldy Ptcldy /54 36/45 34/48 36/49 39/52 45/58 49/58 /10 10/00 00/00 20/20 20/20 40/40 40/40 LaGuardia Airport, NY Ptcldy Ptcldy Sunny Ptcldy Mocldy Mocldy Ptcldy /55 37/45 35/48 37/49 40/51 45/57 49/58 /10 10/00 00/00 20/20 20/20 30/40 40/40

We did get one very warm year in that mix during 31-32. But there was no sustained warmth like we have had over the last decade. The interesting thing is that even the smaller temperature rise from 1870 to 1940 when emissions first began to rise saw a significant decline in snowfall. For the first time we have a full 30 year weather dataset prior to this period. From 1843-1844 to 1872-1873 the 30 year climate mean snowfall at Newark was 43.7” of snow a year. Only 2 years with under 20” of snow with 10 years averaging over 50” of snow. The winter average temperature was 30.8°. So more conformation that areas near the coast require a winter average temperature near or under freezing for a 50” season. The current 7 snowfall season period at Newark has featured a 17.3” average snowfall with a 37.5° average temperature. So areas just west of the current I-95 corridor probably averaged 45-50” a season from parts of Somerset across Morris. Monthly Total Snowfall for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 0.1 0.8 9.1 12.1 12.6 7.3 1.8 43.7 1843-1844 0.0 1.3 9.5 5.5 13.5 1.8 0.0 31.6 1844-1845 0.0 0.5 6.5 5.5 20.5 5.5 T 38.5 1845-1846 0.0 T 8.5 16.5 28.0 T T 53.0 1846-1847 0.0 1.5 12.0 10.0 21.0 4.3 0.5 49.3 1847-1848 0.0 T 6.0 T 8.0 5.0 T 19.0 1848-1849 0.0 1.3 24.0 T 13.0 6.0 0.0 44.3 1849-1850 0.0 0.0 11.0 3.0 T 9.0 8.0 31.0 1850-1851 0.0 0.0 6.0 2.5 3.5 10.5 2.0 24.5 1851-1852 0.0 2.0 7.0 20.0 14.0 16.0 4.3 63.3 1852-1853 0.0 T T 15.5 2.3 7.0 T 24.8 1853-1854 0.0 M 6.0 15.0 23.5 2.8 13.5 60.8 1854-1855 0.0 T 8.0 18.5 16.0 2.5 T 45.0 1855-1856 0.0 T 9.0 32.8 5.0 11.0 0.0 57.8 1856-1857 0.0 0.5 4.3 28.1 2.1 17.0 0.0 52.0 1857-1858 0.0 T 4.5 1.8 10.5 10.5 T 27.3 1858-1859 0.0 5.5 6.5 12.3 15.8 6.0 T 46.1 1859-1860 3.0 0.0 5.1 11.3 25.0 2.5 T 46.9 1860-1861 0.0 T 7.0 20.6 1.3 17.0 2.0 47.9 1861-1862 0.0 1.0 1.0 12.0 25.5 4.6 6.0 50.1 1862-1863 0.0 6.5 8.0 10.0 13.0 10.9 1.8 50.2 1863-1864 0.0 T 4.3 7.0 1.0 7.0 T 19.3 1864-1865 0.0 0.3 26.0 10.5 12.5 T 0.0 49.3 1865-1866 0.0 0.0 13.1 11.8 8.0 1.5 T 34.4 1866-1867 0.0 T 7.0 23.5 15.5 17.5 T 63.5 1867-1868 0.0 T 15.5 23.3 14.0 15.0 7.0 74.8 1868-1869 T 0.0 9.5 11.0 12.0 5.0 0.6 38.1 1869-1870 T T 8.1 1.8 8.5 11.0 3.0 32.4 1870-1871 0.0 T 5.0 16.0 16.1 1.3 2.0 40.4 1871-1872 0.0 T 8.5 2.0 5.0 8.5 T 24.0 1872-1873 0.0 4.0 25.1 14.1 23.3 2.2 3.0 71.7

Pointing out identifiable shifts in the climate has nothing to do with doom. I use it to set the range of parameters for my forecasts. Warming temperatures and storm tracks over time mean less snow. The long term snowfall trend in NYC has been down with steady winter warming. As the winters have been warming we reached a sweet spot for heavy snows between 1993-1994 and 2017-2018. The temperature snd storm tracks were just right along with the increased precipitation for heavy snows. But you will also notice during those years that we had very few average years which were common prior to the 1990s. It was an all or nothing snowfall pattern with great years over 30” and 40” with other years around 15” or under. Past snow droughts were a function of drier winters which were cyclical. But warming is a long term trend due to increasing CO2 emissions. Plus we have experienced non-linear shifts which have abrupt and not gradual. So I have a few long range snowfall scenarios for NYC going forward. Scenario #1 is that the warmer storm track shift and less snow since 2019 is what we will have going forward with NYC shifting to under 20” of snowfall. A few seasons will reach average and above but most will be below the mid 20s. Scenario #2 is a bounce off the lows with more frequent snowy seasons but well below the 2010-2018 close to 40” average in NYC. This would be a short term pattern before the lower seasons begin dominating again. The lowest skill scenario #3 would be a VEI-7 or VEI-8 volcanic eruption which would induce a volcanic winter for 3-7 years with much colder and snowier conditions. Since these eruptions are no easily forecast and can have hundreds or thousands of years between events. So unless we get a historic volcanic event which isn’t easily to forecast, my guess is a a choice between scenario #1 and scenario #2.

With the lack of significant cold in our forecast for the rest of the month, it will be interesting too see if NYC-LGA has to wait until December for their first freeze. ...New York City... Central Park, NY Ptcldy Ptcldy Rain Ptcldy Ptcldy Ptcldy Ptcldy /50 36/52 50/56 38/47 36/48 35/49 35/49 /00 00/20 90/50 00/00 00/20 20/10 10/10 EPS Nov 17-24 forecast Nov 24 to Dec 1 forecast

There is a difference from too dry for much snow back then vs too warm for much snow now. The current 7 year snowfall average is 14.9”in NYC with a winter average temperature of 37.4° and 11.29” precipitation. The 7 year period ending 1932 in NYC featured 16.2” of snow with a winter average temperature of 34.7” and 9.66” of precipitation. So this current run is a function of warming winters and storm tracks vs a cyclical dry pattern back then. NYC was able to follow that low snowfall period with a nice rebound in snowfall the following seasons. But we are much warmer now so it’s less likely we see a 50”+ season and 3 consecutive winters averaging under 32.0°. Plus it’s unlikely we see a Fenruary as cold as 1934 in the coming years. Snowfall 1932-1933 27.0 0 1933-1934 52.0 0 1934-1935 33.8 0 1935-1936 33.2 0 Average winter temperature 1932-1933 37.8 0 1933-1934 29.1 0 1934-1935 31.1 0 1935-1936 28.3 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1934 19.9 0 2 1885 22.6 0 3 2015 23.9 0 4 1895 24.3 0 5 1905 24.8 0 6 1904 25.1 0 7 1875 25.2 1 8 1914 25.4 0 9 1979 25.5 0 10 1936 25.7 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1934 -15 0 2 1943 -8 0 3 1918 -6 0 - 1899 -6 0 4 1896 -5 0 5 1895 -4 0 - 1886 -4 0

NYC will set the new record this month since we don’t have any daily 4” snowfalls in the forecast. Janaury 2022 was our last month here which was both snowy and cold. From 2010 to 2018 NYC had 36 days with 4” of snowfall vs only 6 days from 2019 to 2025. Number of Consecutive Days Snowfall < 4 for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Last value also occurred in one or more previous years. Period of record: 1869-01-01 to 2025-11-12 1 1394 1929-02-22 through 1932-12-16 2 1383 2022-01-30 through 2025-11-12 3 1063 1949-03-01 through 1952-01-27 4 1051 1961-02-05 through 1963-12-22 5 794 1954-01-12 through 1956-03-15 6 743 1996-03-09 through 1998-03-21 7 742 1918-01-23 through 1920-02-03 8 687 1979-02-20 through 1981-01-06 9 685 1972-02-24 through 1974-01-08 10 680 1952-03-02 through 1954-01-10 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Oct through Sep Days with 4” of snow Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2024-2025 0 0 2023-2024 0 0 2022-2023 0 0 2021-2022 2 0 2020-2021 4 0 2019-2020 0 0 2018-2019 2 0 2017-2018 5 0 2016-2017 3 0 2015-2016 1 0 2014-2015 6 0 2013-2014 5 0 2012-2013 4 0 2011-2012 1 0 2010-2011 6 0 2009-2010 5 0

It’s all a numbers and probability game. Record lows across the planet are being rapidly outpaced by record highs. So you have a much better chance of experiencing a record high than a record low. But when record lows do occur the geographic footprint is much smaller than they use to be. So it’s just easier for the core of the cold to miss any given location. Here in North America the relatively few Arctic outbreaks when they have been occurring have been more focused from the upper Midwest down the Plains and into the South. The NW Atlantic to our east is one of the fastest warming bodies of water on the planet. So our area being so close to it is making the lack of cold even greater relative to other areas.

The recent cold records across the Southeast occurred at both urban, suburban, and rural sites. From the interior right down into the Florida Keys. So it was the function of the cold Arctic airmass which dropped into the Southeast. Since even rural areas of the Northeast that radiate well have been missing the cold records at a similar rate as our more urban areas have. You need a cold enough Arctic airmass for radiational cooling to set records. Case in point the -50 low back in January 1977 in the Adirondacks. That radiational cooling at Old Forge was part of a much wider Arctic outbreak with records across the entire region. So even with great radiational cooling, we haven’t seen that kind of cold since then. Since the overall air masses have become so much warmer.

There may be something else at work which links back pretty far in the human collective experience. We evolved through very cold conditions during ice ages when many didn’t survive the harsh conditions. So the cold was something to be feared in generations since those experiences. Warmer conditions were something to be welcomed following these harsh eras. So we don’t have experience yet as a species of warmth being something to be feared. Instead at least in the U.S, most of our internal migration has been from colder climates to warmer ones. This forum is really in the minority. Since most people outside our forum would be happy if we didn’t really have winters at all. It’s why so many go to Florida during the winters. If you notice an Arctic outbreak or snowstorm usually gets much more media attention than a heatwave. My guess is that this natural disposition is hardwired into us from cold and snow being associated with negative consequences for us.

Chinas development of renewable energy is built on coal. A true energy revolution there would replace coal and not just use renewables as an addition. The reason that fossil fuels are lingering is that the current renewables don’t have to capacity to lead to a true revolution away from fossil fuels yet. For now, the world isn’t performing an energy transition but an energy addition, where renewables top up oil, gas and coal. Regardless of well-intended green aspirations, that will remain the case for years, if not decades, unless governments impose significant changes. https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/the-end-of-fossil-fuel-era-it-s-nowhere-near-20250911-p5mudo.html

This has nothing to do with radiational cooling since the core of the cold also missed the interior cold spots that have no trouble radiating like HPN up in Westchester and other surrounding more rural sites. Past instances with Arctic outbreaks this intense in the Southeast were much colder across the entire Northeast. Plus they often were often of a longer duration without such a quick rebound after just one cold morning. It’s just another version of the core of the cold missing the Northeast like we have been seeing in recent years. Last January was a more recent example with the coldest departures missing the Northeast with spots that have no trouble radiating like Caribou remaining much warmer relative to areas further south.

We need to develop a clean technology that can scale up quickly enough and at a low enough cost to actually lead to declining emissions over time. So far solar and wind are just able to supplement fossil fuels and not replace them. The renewables are being used for energy addition rather than transition. The one piece of good news in this new IEA report is that oil demand would probably increase much more than only 13% without the deployment of renewables between now and 2050. it’s quite possible that the specific energy source and method which will completely replace fossil fuels still hasn’t been developed yet in a scalable form.

I have been using RONI for La Ninas since they are being defined more these days by how warm the WPAC is vs how cold Niña 3.4 is. So by this newer definition December 2024 was a moderate La Niña.. Plus early snowfall indicator being under or over 4” also works for LGA and EWR. It has worked for 14 out of the last 15 La Ninas events as defined by RONI since 1995-1996. My guess is that this relationship has become so prominent in the last 30 years due to the more frequent repeating weather patterns as the climate has warmed. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt DJF 2025 -1.12 moderate La Nina RONI

The core of the cold in these smaller geographic footprint Arctic outbreaks are more frequently missing the Northeast.

Very rare for Jacksonville, FL to have their first low in the 20s before EWR, NYC, HPN, LGA, JFK, and ISP. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 0531 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2025 ...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE SET AT JACKSONVILLE FL... A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 28 DEGREES WAS SET AT JACKSONVILLE FL TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 35 DEGREES SET IN 1977.

We recently got the big wave break from the record low east of Newfoundland. This feature wasn’t showing up near the start of November. So the much stronger blocking lead to the pattern this week being cooler than originally forecast. But what hasn’t changed is the very fast Pacific flow. This leads to the persistent cutter, hugger, snd suppressed Southern stream storm tracks. A few days ago the models were hinting at a transfer going south of Long Island. Now the storm has shifted north with a warmer track. Another recurring feature has been a trough to our west during storm time which is continuing. So going into December I am more interested in what happens with the storm track rather than what kind of temperature departures the long range models are showing. Since as we saw last winter, if the storm tracks are warm even in a slightly colder overall pattern it will lead to below average snowfall. But we have plenty of time to see how things go once we get into the beginning of December. Weekend low shifted further north New run Old run

Even out to the end of the EPS run it’s still holding the same look getting closer to the start of December. Models have come in much stronger with the blocking forecast over the last week. But we need to get that trough out of the West in December to have a shot at going over 4” which is required for better snowfall prospects the rest of the winter during La Ninas. It’s still early so we have time to see how things evolve once into December.

Familiar pattern of the Greenland block eventually linking up with the Southeast ridge again leading to a warm up following this brief cooldown.

12-26-10 to 1-27-11 is the record around NYC Metro for 33 day snowfall at 61.5”. Boston was able to surpass that feat from 1-24-15 through 2-25-15 with 96.3”. Baltimore came close from 1-25-10 to 2-26-10 with 55.0”. So very impressive for the I-95 corridor to experience such amazing snowfall production in a little over a month from 2010-2015 at multiple locations during different seasons. Maximum 33-Day Total Snowfall for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 61.5 2010-12-26 through 2011-01-27 0 2 53.6 2010-12-25 through 2011-01-26 0 3 48.7 1978-01-13 through 1978-02-14 0 4 45.7 1978-01-17 through 1978-02-18 0 5 45.5 1961-01-15 through 1961-02-16 0 6 45.2 1978-01-12 through 1978-02-13 0 7 45.0 1978-01-14 through 1978-02-15 0 8 44.9 1978-01-16 through 1978-02-17 0 - 44.9 1978-01-15 through 1978-02-16 0 10 44.8 1961-01-14 through 1961-02-15 0 Maximum 33-Day Total Snowfall for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 96.3 2015-01-24 through 2015-02-25 0 2 94.4 2015-01-23 through 2015-02-24 0 - 94.4 2015-01-22 through 2015-02-23 0 - 94.4 2015-01-21 through 2015-02-22 0 Maximum 33-Day Total Snowfall for Baltimore Area, MD (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 55.0 2010-01-30 through 2010-03-03 0 - 55.0 2010-01-29 through 2010-03-02 0 - 55.0 2010-01-28 through 2010-03-01 0 - 55.0 2010-01-27 through 2010-02-28 0 - 55.0 2010-01-26 through 2010-02-27 0 - 55.0 2010-01-25 through 2010-02-26 0

Visibility briefly down to 4 miles in the first light snow squall of the season with large wet flakes showing up as bright banding on the radar. https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khvn Nov 11, 1:45 pm 37 26 65 29 W 13G22 4.00 Lt snow