bluewave

Global models are not designed to track MCS systems. Maybe if they get closer to convection allowing resolutions. So this is par for the course.

I think somebody in the area has a shot at their first June 105° reading on Tuesday since this will be a 3 day heat build. The Euro was correct with the low 90s today as the GFS only had upper 80s. The heat away from the local sea breezes will begin ramping up tomorrow and build higher each day. My guess is that the best shot for 105° will be around Newark and Corona, Queens Tuesday. Maybe even an area we don’t expect further east into Nassau or NW Suffolk where the best compressional warming occurs right along the sea breeze front.

Just commenting on the fact that we didn’t used to get +30C warm pools in the EPAC off of Mexico and Central America during past strong -PDOs which drove this record early RI with Erick. So it’s the record and expansive WPAC warm pool driving this -PDO. Rather than in the old days when the -PDO cold pool off of California was much stronger and the WPAC warm pool weaker. It would be great if we had real time 2nd EOF PDO updates to do along with the traditional PDO.

Yeah, mostly being driven by the record SSTs across the Western Pacific Basin. Still well above average SSTs off the West Coast Mexico and Central America. This boosted the recent record breaking early RI with Erick. Only a small area of cooler -PDO SSTs off the California Coast.

Yeah, areas west of the sea breeze front in interior SE NY, NJ and PA have seen the fastest summer warming in the East.

The really big extreme for warmth during the 2020s in PA has been Bradford and Reading. All the 2020s summers have landed in the top 10 warmest. With 2024 setting the record for warmest in both locations. So those locations are way too far inland to be influenced by the increased onshore flow here in recent summers. Time Series Summary for BRADFORD REGIONAL AIRPORT, PA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2024 68.2 0 2 2021 67.3 0 3 2022 67.0 0 - 2020 67.0 0 4 2016 66.5 0 5 2018 66.3 0 6 2012 66.1 1 7 2023 66.0 0 - 2005 66.0 0 - 1991 66.0 0 - 1975 66.0 0 8 1959 65.9 0 9 2011 65.8 0 - 1993 65.8 0 - 1987 65.8 0 10 2019 65.3 0 Time Series Summary for Reading Area, PA (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2024 76.7 0 2 2020 76.6 0 3 2022 76.4 0 - 2010 76.4 0 - 1966 76.4 0 - 1949 76.4 0 4 1955 76.3 1 - 1943 76.3 0 5 2021 76.1 0 6 2016 76.0 0 7 2011 75.9 0 - 2005 75.9 0 - 1952 75.9 0 8 1959 75.6 0 - 1900 75.6 0 9 2012 75.3 0 - 1944 75.3 0 10 2002 75.0 0

That was in the old days when we didn’t automatically have a Southeast Ridge with a -PNA and -NAO like has been the default recently.

The highs of 108° in Newark and Mineola during 2010 and 2011 still stand for our summer all-time maximum temperatures set during the month of July. 2010 remains our warmest summer near the coast. But some spots in NJ had their warmest summer in 2022. Last summer some spots in Eastern PA had their warmest summer. So although the coastal sections haven’t exceeded 2010 yet, go just to our west and they have had 2010 style heat in recent years. Although the all-time daily highs haven’t been as impressive as 2010 and 201l were to us. Mostly a function of the prevailing wind direction. But for all-time June heat the 2020s stands alone. As we are on track to even surpass June 2021 for 100°+ coverage potentially even beating the 103° all-time June high at EWR and the 102° at Corona. We aren’t going to meet the formal definition of a monsoon climate here. But we have been experiencing aspects of them. Especially with the early heat in June being followed by flooding rains.

The summers really shifted to much warmer back in 2010. We haven’t had a single cool summer by long term averages since 2009. Our only below average summers for temperatures have been 2014, 2017, and 2023. And even those summers were slightly cooler only due to the rising 30 year means. They would have been pretty average summers for temperatures in past 30 year climate eras. So we have had a remarkable 12 out of the last 15 summers warmer to record warm. Plus the 70° and 75° dew point days have reached record levels also. From 2010 to 2013 we had a strong focus of 100° heat mostly in July. This was when the all-time summer high of 108° was set in several locations. But during the 2020s we have already seen local all-time highs for the month of June. This will be the 3rd year this decade with 100° heat in June. But July 2022 set the record for consecutive 100° day at 5 in Newark. So this coming record heatwave is following the same 2020s pattern of 100°+ heat in June. This reminds me of monsoon climates around the world which experience their greatest summer heat in June before the summer monsoon arrives. It will be something to monitor going forward. Since each June in the 2020s that reached 100° was followed by 10”+ rain in a few hours to days like last summer and 2021 at some later point.

No problem. You have a good sense of humor. It’s pretty wild how extreme these 500mb ridges have become over the last decade. I guess if the magnitude of the February 2018 ridge anomaly with the 80° record warmth occurred in the summer months, then it would be something like a 605+ dm ridge. But this ridge with the coming record June heat in a few days will be more than enough than most people want to see.

UHI is too shallow and localized to influence the 500mb heights across the Northern Hemisphere. These record breaking ridges have been occurring across all areas of the Northern Hemisphere including the oceans and relatively uninhabited land areas. Just look at all the record 500mb heights on the Caribou, Maine balloon soundings in recent years just like our area. Their records go back to 1948.

Last June set the highest 500mb height record for our area since 1952. It came in ahead of 2018 and 2013. 500 mb heights have been steadily increasing over the years.

Another way that we can look at how the tree growth over the NYC ASOS has artificially cooled the summer highs there since the 1990s is the comparison between Newark and NYC high temperatures on the warmest day of all the decades since the 1930s. Into the 1980s NYC would often be warmer than Newark on the warmest day of the decade. But the relationship shifted during the 1990s when the NYC ASOS was moved under the trees. Now Newark is always warmer on the warmest day of the decade than NYC. The current warmest day of the 2020s is 6-30-2021. Newark reached 103° with NYC only reaching 98°. So NYC was 5° cooler. Next Tuesday could be the warmest day of the 2020s so far. So it will be interesting to see if Newark can rival or even exceed the +5° warmer than NYC in 2021. Warmest day of the decade comparison between NYC and EWR 6-30-2021 EWR….103°…..+5° NYC….98° 7-21-2011 EWR….108°…..+4° NYC…104° 8-9-2001 EWR…105°……+2° NYC…103° 7-10-1993 EWR….105°…..+3 NYC….102° 7-21-1980 NYC….102°…..+1° EWR….101° 7-21-1977 NYC…..104°……+2° EWR…..102° 7-23-1966 EWR…..105°….+2° NYC…..103° 9-3-1952 EWR…..105°…..+2° NYC…..103° 7-4-1949 EWR….105°…..+3° NYC….102° 7-9-1936 NYC…..106°….+2° EWR….104°

The higher heights sometimes result in over the top warm ups where the warmest temperatures relative to the means get directed into Northern New England and Canada. That has happened several times in recent years. This was due to more onshore flow here due to the elongation of the ridge east of New England. But this time it appears that the westerly flow will be more pervasive. So we’ll have higher heights and westerly flow this time. So this is why somebody around the area could see the first 105° heat ever recorded during the month of June. June 2021 set the previous all-time record at 103°.

No. The 500mb heights were lower back then. We just set the all-time 500 mb height record in June 2024 at 599dm for our area when we had the 100° heat last June. This time the magnitude of the heat and the duration of the ridge will be more impressive. Those older 100° heatwaves weren’t as long as the one experienced in July 2022 which ran 5 days. Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature >= 100 for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 5 2022-07-20 through 2022-07-24 4 2010-07-04 through 2010-07-07 - 4 1993-07-07 through 1993-07-10 - 4 1953-08-28 through 1953-08-31 3 2011-07-21 through 2011-07-23 - 3 2006-08-01 through 2006-08-03 - 3 2001-08-07 through 2001-08-09 - 3 1966-07-02 through 1966-07-04 - 3 1949-08-09 through 1949-08-11 - 3 1949-07-28 through 1949-07-30 2 2021-06-29 through 2021-06-30 - 2 2013-07-18 through 2013-07-19 - 2 2012-07-17 through 2012-07-18 - 2 1999-07-05 through 1999-07-06 - 2 1993-08-27 through 1993-08-28 - 2 1991-07-20 through 1991-07-21 - 2 1988-07-16 through 1988-07-17 - 2 1988-07-10 through 1988-07-11 - 2 1980-07-20 through 1980-07-21 - 2 1955-07-22 through 1955-07-23 - 2 1949-07-03 through 1949-07-04 - 2 1944-08-04 through 1944-08-05 - 2 1943-06-25 through 1943-06-26 - 2 1936-07-09 through 1936-07-10

The unusual thing about the coming heatwave is how long the 500mb heights remain in the 594dm to 600dm range. In the past these ridges have generally lasted a day or two with 500mb heights this high. Now the models have us in these near to record levels from Sunday into Tuesday. Getting the heat to build for 3 days increases the chance that some spots across the region could approach 105° before the heatwave ends.

The U.S. and North America have never experienced a 10 winter temperature shift this warm following a global temperature baseline jump. This has been the warmest 10 year stretch the CONUS has experienced since National CONUS records began in 1895 by a significant margin. It seems like the 15-16 crossed a threshold that we didn’t realize was there. Since it set off a series of shifts where marine heatwaves and global air temperatures started to accelerate beyond previous limits. Plus the winter storm track lifted north into the Great Lakes a few years after in 18-19 leading to record low snowfalls in our area since then. My guess is that the world experienced a non-linear shift and we will need a volcanic eruption like we haven’t seen in hundreds to thousands of years to shift us back to the colder temperatures prior to 15-16. But such a change to colder would only be temporary. https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/volcanic-cooling

The park made it too 106° in 1936 when the tree growth wasn’t an issue. Monthly Data for July 1936 for Upton NY NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ PLAINFIELD COOP 106 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 106 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 105 NJ ELIZABETH COOP 105 NJ JERSEY CITY COOP 105 NJ LITTLE FALLS COOP 105 NJ PATERSON COOP 105 NY SCARSDALE COOP 105 NY BEDFORD HILLS COOP 105 NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 105 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 104 NY FLUSHING COOP 104 NY WEST POINT COOP 104 NY HICKSVILLE COOP 103 NY CARMEL COOP 103 NY MOUNT VERNON COOP 103

The models always struggle with the exact 2m temperatures at 5 days out. Same for the wind direction. So look more at the signal than the model specifics. The chances are going up for at least 100° heat from Huntington to Commack if the flow stays offshore. Need to get within 24-72 hrs in order to know where the sea breeze front actually stalls out. But there is a chance someone in the usual warm spots like Queens and NJ range between 102°-105° before the heatwave ends. But still too soon to make that call for sure yet.

The baseline temperatures have warmed twice since the 13-14 and 14-15 winters. First in 15-16 and then again in 23-24. So the chances of Detroit seeing a winter with average temperatures as cold as 13-14 and 14-15 again without a major volcanic eruption is very low. Time Series Summary for Detroit Area, MI (ThreadEx) 10 coldest winters dense rank sorting for temperature Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1903-1904 18.7 0 2 1874-1875 19.1 0 3 1976-1977 19.8 0 - 1917-1918 19.8 0 4 1977-1978 20.4 0 - 1962-1963 20.4 0 5 1935-1936 20.8 0 6 2013-2014 20.9 0 - 1919-1920 20.9 0 7 1978-1979 21.3 0 - 1904-1905 21.3 0 - 1892-1893 21.3 0 8 1981-1982 21.8 0 - 1911-1912 21.8 0 - 1880-1881 21.8 0 - 1878-1879 21.8 0 9 1969-1970 22.5 0 10 2014-2015 23.0 0

You just might get that by Tuesday since the Euro has offshore flow and compressional warming right onto Long Island.

The warm spots around the area will probably challenge or exceed the all-time June heat set back in 2021. This extreme June heat reminds me of a monsoon climate. So it will be interesting to see if we get the 10”+amounts in a few hours to days later in the season like we have experienced following past June 100° heat in 2021 and 2024.

The whole neighborhood is concrete in Corona and the rest of highly urbanized Queens neighborhoods with very little grass. So it’s representative of what people living in the neighborhood experience. You can be considered very lucky in NYC if you have even have a tiny patch of grass. Backyards are a real luxury for all but the higher value properties. Even in the LB West End there is very little grass.

The micronet has stations in all 5 boroughs. The NYC Micronet The New York City Micronet is a dense network of 23 weather stations, 18 owned by Consolidated Edison Company of New York, Inc., and 5 owned by the NYS Mesonet. Collectively, the Micronet provides critical real-time weather data during high-impact events for utility operations and long-term data for monitoring climate change. These data are essential for understanding short to long-term power infrastructure needs. The New York City Micronet was designed and installed by the New York State Mesonet, and the Mesonet continues to maintain network operations. Ten sites are located at ground level, eleven sites are deployed on roof tops, and two sites are located on a pier. A majority of Micronet stations measure air temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, and pressure. A mix of stations also measure wind speed and direction, solar radiation, snow depth, soil temperature and moisture, surface (skin) temperature, water temperature, and water level. Micronet data are collected every 5 minutes, quality controlled, archived and made available to users in real-time. The 18 Con Edison sites and 5 NYS Mesonet sites located in NYC are shown in the data display below.

The LGA ASOS is within a few hundred feet of the bay. So this keeps the high temperatures cooler than stations further south. Low temperatures a pretty similar in Queens.