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Everything posted by DanLarsen34

  1. So, this looks interesting for this weekend.
  2. Are the storms to the west elevated? They’re looking REALLY good on velocity and structure on reflectivity.
  3. This is the most prolific long-tracking supercell I can recall in a LONG time. Closest analog I can think off the top of my head in the past couple of years was the Carbondale EF-4 supercell in 2017. I missed most of the action earlier because of work, so thanks for these threads everyone. This has been a crazy day.
  4. They just said “large and extremely dangerous tornado” in the new warning. You think? Where was this warning 5-10 minutes ago? That’s bad.
  5. Definite debris ball on this storm, both on reflectivity and on the CC.
  6. Doesn’t seem like anyone has been bullish on this set-up after the past few model runs. Too many failure modes evident to get very excited about this.
  7. Dixie Alley is tornado alley at this point.
  8. This is a really strongly worded outlook for Day 3. Models really shifted in the past 24 hours towards a more dangerous set-up.
  9. Classic hook and developing debris ball. This is big trouble.
  10. Hate to nitpick here, but the discussion language mentions “an isolated strong tornado is possible” while the primary threat section says “a couple of intense tornadoes likely.” There shouldn’t be a discrepancy.
  11. The sheer number of violent tornadoes is what sets those two apart from any other outbreak. This raises an interesting question: how many total tornadoes, and violent tornadoes, do you need for an outbreak to be considered a super outbreak? This would be a fun discussion topic. I’ve seen some discussion that 10+ violent tornadoes could qualify.
  12. Absolutely! It’s likely the 1974 super outbreak had more tornadoes than what the official number stands at for the reasons you just gave.
  13. It was. I think that context would heavily lean in favor of 11-17 if you were to go and rank each individually.
  14. "It's April 12, all over again." lol
  15. This outbreak has officially made it to the top the second-tier for me if you were to try and rank its place all-time. In terms of the sheer number of tornadoes, and the significant number of intense tornadoes, this outbreak is up there with any of the major ones we've had in the past 20-30 years, maybe longer. Numerically, it's even ahead of 11-17-2013 and 4-14-2012 which were the two biggest outbreaks I've followed since I really got into following these set-ups every year The only thing this outbreak is missing for it to be considered a Super Outbreak is a high number of violent tornadoes. That's the one thing that still sets apart days like the Palm Sunday 1965 outbreak, the 1974 Super Outbreak, and April 27, 2011. Still, this was an historic outbreak.
  16. Can someone post the practically perfect tornado probability map now that we have an updated tornado report map?
  17. Notice less VBV in this compared to one of the other posts. Crazy that we might be looking at another high-end event if things come together.
  18. Between the total number of tornadoes, and the total number of strong tornadoes, this was one of the most impressive outbreaks we’ve had in the past 20-30 years.