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An Early Season Winter Storm, too early to say!

Today, this morning in New England, Monday is a rather slow, unwelcoming day.  Most New England Patriots fans are waking to an early sun rise, with the knowledge that their New England Patriots took a big loss on the chin from the Baltimore Ravens before their week 10 bye.  With the knowledge that there are weaknesses on the team's defense and offense, we pay attention to the weather scene the next two weeks before another game is played against the Philadelphia Eagles.  I awake this Monday morn

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Patriots gameday forecast, November 3rd, 2019

In less than 24 hours, the Patriots are scheduled to play the Baltimore Ravens.  The current weather forecast is quite pleasant for Baltimore area.  Temperature expected to be in the mid-40s throughout the game, dew points in the lower 30s, with relative humidity in the dry zone of around 48 %.  No precipitation is expected as there are no weather systems in the area for the game tomorrow.  Frost could build throughout the game across grassy areas and colder surfaces.  Winds should be a non-fact

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Snow is a distinct potential in the 6-8 day range

Snow from a potential coastal storm is looking like a distinct potential, nothing serious or imminent, just a potential.  Given the long term nature of the snow event possibility and given how volatile models can be run to run, we need to wait to see some resemblance of consistency start to mount up in the coming days.  We just aren't there yet.  Cold is coming and perhaps arctic in origin.  That is as much a given as anything right now.  Have fun this weekend, enjoy in the climate weather, near

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Snow in the Seven Day Forecasts?????

Latest GFS and model consensus showing signs that winter is ready to make a return.  Today will begin the cold pouring into the eastern CONUS.  BY the end of the seven day forecast, next Friday, a coastal system is showing up on the models.  However, I am not sold on this potential at this time.  There is a lot of disagreement on the potential location and track and intensity of said storm.  We will know more by the end of the weekend into the Monday timeframe of next week.

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Denver, Colorado metro could see a big snowstorm

**Alert Level** (High), potential snowstorm impact in the next three days, high! Parts of the Denver region could see multiple feet of snow in the mountains and in the city region.  Snowfall amounts of 10-30" is possible as the period ends 00z Wednesday, or Tuesday 8 pm EDT.  Multiple model consensus shows a strong trough entering CA now and moving over the area by Monday afternoon into Tuesday.  This will lead to leeward cyclogenesis to occur as the trough tilts more neutral.  This will le

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ENSO Pattern looking more confident into Spring 2020

Multiple model consensus suggests that the current evolving pattern for the Equatorial Pacific Ocean basin wide is favoring neutral-ENSO pattern.  CPC suggests there is a more than 50/50 chance of a neutral ENSO persisting until Spring months of 2020.  This should favor a strong winter favoring above normal snowfall for eastern to central New England with a below average temperature climate.  Long range models suggest the pattern evolving this weekend will lead to a prolonged cold air mass.  Mor

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Models continue to show pattern change!

Hello southern New Englanders, this evening update is about the latest guidance showing a potential pattern change storm erupting in the 5-10 day range.  This storm signals the erupt change to a colder and maybe perhaps more stable pattern towards Halloween and the change into the month of November.  Deep cold is on tap for after the next week.  Stay Tuned!  Winter is still around the corner.

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Potential Coastal Storm could have big impacts in Eastern New England this week!

The next four days present an unique challenge for weather forecasters.  Models present a blocked upper-level pattern which ensues at the surface as well.  A large ridge in Atlantic Canada will keep the coastal low pressure blocked at the surface and rather stalls or meanders off the coast near the New England storm benchmark location or 40N:70W.  Winds will increase after 12z tomorrow into 12z Friday, they should peak between 55-70mph winds at the coastline between 12z Thursday and 12z Friday. 
 

Cold Season weather today!

Today radar imagery shows Ocean Effect precipitation is developing and falling over the Outer Arm of Cape Cod this early afternoon.  Radar shows flow is out of the north to northwest with rather cooler air mass moving over the low 60 degree ocean waters over the bay.  Sprinkles and a few misty periods have developed.  Radar image below shows this well.https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Rhode_Island-comp_radar-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined
 

Upcoming weather for New England!

Latest guidance and weather data suggests the rain that was impacting the region this morning is out of the way now, but cloud cover should stay in control for most of the morning into the early afternoon, before some clearing occurs as a strong Canadian High builds in from the northwest.  Tomorrow looks dry and cool, with highs in the lower to middle 50s and lows near 45F.  Sunday looks similar with perhaps a stronger and warmer return flow as the high shifts to the east with a rather nice rebo
 

First Signs of Winter showing up!

Today, I have been sifting through the data and the guidance as of the 00z runs 10/3 and they are showing me the signs towards winter are upon us.  New England weather is rather volatile the further we get from the summer and we get deeper into the season of Fall and then winter.  As the holidays approach we are reminded how lucky we have been to live life as long as we have, and to have people who care about us in this world.  As the holidays approach we are reminded of this constantly.  As win
 

ENSO conditions update for the 2019-2020 Winter

Today's update is a short appeal in the overall envelope of winter solutions.  Today's neutral ENSO conditions update supports an average to slightly above average snowfall for all of New England.  Again we should have a much better handle towards the first several weeks of November on what the ENSO pattern should be like.  Eastern and Western New England have equal opportunities for above average snowfall this winter, which is quite normal within strong neutral ENSO phases.
 

ENSO conditions for this upcoming winter

Right now there is a greater than 55 percent chance of neutral ENSO conditions this winter.  This should favor above normal snowfall across most of central New England, with a tendency towards slightly above average snowfall for eastern New England and less towards normal across the northern and western parts of New England.  Storm tracks should be favored more eastward then last winter, more so from 35N:75W to around 41N:69.5W as an average storm track location.  Coastal plain of New England co
 

Tornadoes possible for SNE today!

Major Severe Weather Outbreak is underway today over SNE as the first tornado warning has been issued for Middlesex County, MA.  The rest of the region shows increasing potential for intense damaging winds over 70mph, large hail over 1.5" and a few tornadoes.  Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect until 10 pm tonight.