Snow from a potential coastal storm is looking like a distinct potential, nothing serious or imminent, just a potential. Given the long term nature of the snow event possibility and given how volatile models can be run to run, we need to wait to see some resemblance of consistency start to mount up in the coming days. We just aren't there yet. Cold is coming and perhaps arctic in origin. That is as much a given as anything right now. Have fun this weekend, enjoy in the climate weather, near
Latest GFS and model consensus showing signs that winter is ready to make a return. Today will begin the cold pouring into the eastern CONUS. BY the end of the seven day forecast, next Friday, a coastal system is showing up on the models. However, I am not sold on this potential at this time. There is a lot of disagreement on the potential location and track and intensity of said storm. We will know more by the end of the weekend into the Monday timeframe of next week.
**Alert Level** (High), potential snowstorm impact in the next three days, high!
Parts of the Denver region could see multiple feet of snow in the mountains and in the city region. Snowfall amounts of 10-30" is possible as the period ends 00z Wednesday, or Tuesday 8 pm EDT. Multiple model consensus shows a strong trough entering CA now and moving over the area by Monday afternoon into Tuesday. This will lead to leeward cyclogenesis to occur as the trough tilts more neutral. This will le
The Climate Prediction Center is more than 50/50 confident, precisely 55-60 % chance that neutral ENSO pattern will persist until Spring 2020. We are becoming more confident on an equal opportunity winter for above normal snowfall from PVD to BOS to Portland ME. I will have further updates first week into the first ten days of November.
Multiple model consensus suggests that the current evolving pattern for the Equatorial Pacific Ocean basin wide is favoring neutral-ENSO pattern. CPC suggests there is a more than 50/50 chance of a neutral ENSO persisting until Spring months of 2020. This should favor a strong winter favoring above normal snowfall for eastern to central New England with a below average temperature climate. Long range models suggest the pattern evolving this weekend will lead to a prolonged cold air mass. Mor
Hello southern New Englanders, this evening update is about the latest guidance showing a potential pattern change storm erupting in the 5-10 day range. This storm signals the erupt change to a colder and maybe perhaps more stable pattern towards Halloween and the change into the month of November. Deep cold is on tap for after the next week. Stay Tuned! Winter is still around the corner.
Models in the long range, are beginning to show a winter like pattern beginning late OCT, sometime after the 27th. In the next two weeks of OCT, warm air is settling in after our mid-week miller B storm center offshore of MVY sometime WED night. Cold air will dump into the central Northern CONUS north of 40 north latitude.
The next four days present an unique challenge for weather forecasters. Models present a blocked upper-level pattern which ensues at the surface as well. A large ridge in Atlantic Canada will keep the coastal low pressure blocked at the surface and rather stalls or meanders off the coast near the New England storm benchmark location or 40N:70W. Winds will increase after 12z tomorrow into 12z Friday, they should peak between 55-70mph winds at the coastline between 12z Thursday and 12z Friday.
Today radar imagery shows Ocean Effect precipitation is developing and falling over the Outer Arm of Cape Cod this early afternoon. Radar shows flow is out of the north to northwest with rather cooler air mass moving over the low 60 degree ocean waters over the bay. Sprinkles and a few misty periods have developed. Radar image below shows this well.https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Rhode_Island-comp_radar-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined
Latest guidance and weather data suggests the rain that was impacting the region this morning is out of the way now, but cloud cover should stay in control for most of the morning into the early afternoon, before some clearing occurs as a strong Canadian High builds in from the northwest. Tomorrow looks dry and cool, with highs in the lower to middle 50s and lows near 45F. Sunday looks similar with perhaps a stronger and warmer return flow as the high shifts to the east with a rather nice rebo
Attached is the guidelines for the different threat levels I will put in place for each snow event in the future from end of November through the first week of April 2020.
Snowfall amounts and impacts forecast technique.docx
Today, I have been sifting through the data and the guidance as of the 00z runs 10/3 and they are showing me the signs towards winter are upon us. New England weather is rather volatile the further we get from the summer and we get deeper into the season of Fall and then winter. As the holidays approach we are reminded how lucky we have been to live life as long as we have, and to have people who care about us in this world. As the holidays approach we are reminded of this constantly. As win
Today's update is a short appeal in the overall envelope of winter solutions. Today's neutral ENSO conditions update supports an average to slightly above average snowfall for all of New England. Again we should have a much better handle towards the first several weeks of November on what the ENSO pattern should be like. Eastern and Western New England have equal opportunities for above average snowfall this winter, which is quite normal within strong neutral ENSO phases.
Right now there is a greater than 55 percent chance of neutral ENSO conditions this winter. This should favor above normal snowfall across most of central New England, with a tendency towards slightly above average snowfall for eastern New England and less towards normal across the northern and western parts of New England. Storm tracks should be favored more eastward then last winter, more so from 35N:75W to around 41N:69.5W as an average storm track location. Coastal plain of New England co
Predictions made by James W Nichols I outlay the potential standings and records and playoff matchups and outcomes. Questions?? I would love to debate them. It is the attached file.
The 2019 NFL Season Predictions.docx
Yes, unfortunately, Dorian is now a hurricane. Models showing a potentially catastrophic hurricane heading towards the south-central east coast of Florida landfall in the next 4 to 5 days. Stay tuned as the models show an extremely dangerous hurricane making the approach to the Space Coast of Florida.
Major Severe Weather Outbreak is underway today over SNE as the first tornado warning has been issued for Middlesex County, MA. The rest of the region shows increasing potential for intense damaging winds over 70mph, large hail over 1.5" and a few tornadoes. Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect until 10 pm tonight.
Fireworks have begun for Tom Brady and his list of WR weapons on the outside. With Josh Gordon and Julian Edelman back yesterday at practice, today the Patriots get tremendous news that Demaryius Thomas has returned to practice after suffering from a horrible Achilles tear injury last season with the Texans. After signing a one-year deal with the Patriots, Thomas has returned to action and is officially taken off the PUP list. This adds another veteran weapon on the outside at a size of 6'3"
My novel is progressing, we hope it will be finished before November 1st, 2019. We could get it published as soon as Spring 2020. Fingers crossed!
As for my NFL predictions release, that won't come until the first day of NFL games, which is two weeks from Thursday, September 5th. I will release my thoughts than, stay tuned!
Another thing, Josh Gordon is dealing with something far greater than substance abuse issues. Most people who suffer drug or alcohol addiction are trying to mas
Update August 12th, 2019: my sports predictions are coming for September 5th, 2019 I will post on my youtube channel, PSUWeatherNewbie, and the offtopic sports threads for the Patriots and the Celtics 2019-2020 season.
I don't have the time or drive to do predictions for the next seasons in the NBA and NFL this weekend, with the importance of Red Sox games and the tropical weather heating up as the date for the average first hurricane is AUG 1st, so the climo peak is coming in another 5 to 6 weeks, I will be quite busy with the weather. I will have the predictions done before September 1st.