Other than the news that my second novel is progressing well today, we have some weather to discuss. Teleconnections tell us what kind of 500mb pattern we can expect to shape up in that time frame. Normally 2-4 days, his medium to high confidence, 4-8 days is low to medium and 8+ days is usually low confidence for various reasons. Our snowstorm potential exists because two thirds of our pattern is showing a good sign for a snowstorm to impact the New England region. First we have to have a neutral or positive PNA, now if we have a +NAO, we normally need a +PNA, but if we have a -NAO we can compensate for having a neutral PNA, and if we have a -NAO/-AO combo than cold air will be present, but it could be over the plains and Great Lakes rather than over our region and we can expect rainy conditions as milder air pours over the region with the storm track to our west, perhaps producing inland cutters or inland runners. Now if we have a +PNA/-NAO/-AO combo of all three present, than we can pretty much assume an East Coast blizzard, why? 500mb patterns! At 500mb a +PNA index represents riding in the WNAM region and a trough in the ENAM region or Eastern North American region. Models are beginning to show colder air infiltrating our region by segments, the strongest segment comes around the 19th. Stay tuned as there is a lot to determine before I make a call that could cost my dad thousands of dollars.
First snow of the season looks to be supported by most of the guidance we use for forecasting our weather across the CONUS. Our weather in New England this time of year gets particularly colder as we venture to the beginning of November through the end of March, this time period is notorious for heavy snowstorms, more so towards DEC through FEB sometimes including NOV and MAR. This winter supports a La Nina pattern, although weak, but present should feature more of a negative PNA and positive NAO, but you never know how these blocks of the atmosphere will behave. We could have our first widespread snowstorm either NOV 9-11 or NOV 14-16th of this upcoming two week period as the PV (polar vortex) enters our side of the hemisphere and tries to get involved in our air masses from Canada and the Arctic Circle. We are entering the season for explosive nor'easters in the North Atlantic/Arctic region which lends us to believe that cold air is indeed present on our side of the hemisphere, now this upcoming week from Thursday Nov 2nd to Nov 9th will be a step down period from modestly warm weather tomorrow through the weekend to appreciably colder and perhaps an arctic chill to the air will be felt next weekend, this should set the stage for our first rain/snow storm. Stay tuned!
GFS if right shows snow occurring over the coastal waters of Cape Cod on November 16th. Could this be the mark of the first snow of the season? Stay tuned, next two weeks will determine whats real and what is not.
"Dawn Awakening: The Apocalypse is Now", is a heart wrenching tale about the end of the world through the study of geology. Together we will experience, life, death and destruction of the world in a process known as the, "Earth Core Pulse", a theory I created on an epic energetic pulse of ultimate energy emanating from the Earth's Core throughout the faults of the Earth, and where it all starts, the Philippines, explodes into dust and heat is generated throughout the oceans as various earthquakes erupt along the fault lines of the Earth. This novel will be such an experience, that this author has never written before in his lifetime, it will be a journey through the characters that has never happened before in our lifetimes. This story will bring heartache, suspicion, suspense, heroic behavior and the ultimate giving of sacrificing one's life for the better good, for the ultimate good, in saving a person's life, putting a person's life ahead of their own safety. The ultimate sacrifice. Our hero Jack and heroine Abi, take us on an adventure, one only dreams of in the end, and today that journey begins. I cannot wait to give you this novel, because I want to surprise the world with my talents as a tremendous author with the talents of a great writer. This novel will prove that to the reader. You will want to continue to read my novels as they will be better and better, filled with tremendous action. Good luck, this might take me a full year to work on from now until Thanksgiving 2018. I will cherish this journey, because I want it to be the best out there ever.
Looking at the latest 12z model data, it appears that the last week of October through the Halloween holiday and into the first few weeks of November the Teleconnections will favor trough in the east and ridge in the west type pattern where sustained cold will be possible in New England north of 40N latitude. This could mean a stormy November in which cold air sinks into the Oh Valley centered in this region the trough will allow storms to come up the East Coast to the benchmark and give us precipitation perhaps in the form of snow or rain. GEFS. GFS, EURO, CMC all favor a long range pattern that is conducive for snow and cold, just how cold will be determined by a negative anomaly in the Arctic Oscillation cycle. This negative anomaly should allow a polar vortex or a vortex from the arctic circle to focus a cold air phase into the Northeastern US by November 1st. This should be a fun period folks, especially if blocking develops over the Atlantic Ocean.
SO the models are showing frigid air entering the northern Plains sometime in the next ten days and that cold air filters into the eastern US by day 13-16, which is the 27th and beyond of October. We could be seeing a change to much colder air eventually as winter gets closer. Most of our storms this winter will be from the Oh Valley to the Mid Atlantic coastal storm tracks, signifying that miller Bs and not Miller As will be the normalcy this winter.
Ok the pattern upcoming for the next two weeks is quite simple. Simply put, it remains a negative to neutral PNA, positive NAO and positive AO, this means cold air will continue to filter into the western Canada and Western US, while the eastern US and eastern Canada remain underneath a strong ridge of high pressure with southwesterly winds and warm temperatures. By the end of October, this pattern may switch to more seasonal temperatures showing a cooling trend by the beginning of November. the models show some semblance of a -AO/+PNA pattern emerging in the long range but the NAO remains positive or neutral at best. Time will tell, but we will certainly run into a winter cold snap sometime in the future, perhaps near.
Hey everyone of Americanwx.com foruims,
Today I inform you that my novel, 'The Dawn Awakening: Opening Segment" is being reviewed by a publishing company for potential publishing, keep me in your prayers, as we can get through the barrier of publishing. Thanks, I will have another updated blog on Thursday when they make the decision. Thanks!
James Warren Nichols
I am writing to you guys because its fun and a bit of an exercise short story for when I try to write short stories and get published in the future. This practice short story is about a Blizzard of the Century deal where a catastrophic nor'easter meets the NE CONUS and the MW. A storm as strong as the Greenland storms in the winter time. A low as low as 925.4mb a category five hurricane pressure. What would happen if a low bombed out to 925.4mb southeast of Nantucket, MA, how much snow would fall and how would it unfold in SNE. I have a snowfall map from the Midwest Clipper and the Northeast Nor'easter coastal low. Check it out and I hope it holds everyone off until the short story is finished. Take care.
James Warren Nichols
The latest afternoon run of the GFS today has brought fear into the eyes of the beholder. Shows a 937mb sitting off the SE US Coastline festering on the warmest waters of the Atlantic Ocean. Could become a category four hurricane in another five days.
Models are not crazy about the tropics right now but we have two areas of interest growing in the Tropical Atlantic as I write this blog. First area of concern is close to home, in what we call a homegrown threat, an area of thunderstorms grew into an area of low pressure earlier this afternoon and is growing with thunderstorm activity. It developed from a leftover frontal boundary currently racing off to the Northeast over the western Atlantic Ocean. TS Emily grew from the same front yesterday and is now quickly diminishing in a midst of a shear and dry air. Just as I thought from yesterday this area needed to be monitored as the area of frontal shear caused by a front in the GOM appears to be lessening now and is near 10-20 knots instead of 30-40 knots yesterday. This shear should continue to drop according to the 18z GFS run yesterday afternoon. This small area of low pressure is already well defined on satellite imagery this evening and appears to be gaining convection. Depending upon if the convection is consistent and persistent will determine the tropical outlook on this system. Next system of interest is a tropical wave currently in the MDR battling dry air to the north of it and the ITCZ influence to the south of it. Shear is light to moderate, not enough to stop development, should become an invest tomorrow morning. Stay tuned this system could become a threat to the lesser Antilles islands in the mid term.
The title is "A Wild Weekend to remember, a love story" there will be a continuation of Marie and Walter's weekend in the second short story and then a continuation of the story.
James Warren Nichols, written by
A couple, a love story.docx
12z Models are in and bring some snow to the Cape and Islands, they are further south than the 00z runs and this still makes me believe that the models are not quite there in there handling of the H5 low just yet. I will give a full blog update tomorrow morning.
A major nor'easter/blizzard is imminent. Blizzard of 2017 is on its way. The northern piece of energy has made a US landfall over NW US at 18z yesterday afternoon or evening and this is the energy that we have been waiting for a sampling of and now that we got models adjusted stronger with the southern vort max and northern vort max. Now there are three jet streams involved. The northern jet stream (AKA Arctic jet stream), southern stream (Pacific Jet) and the sub-tropical jet which situates over the gulf of Mexico, providing the system with a GOM low pressure center and moisture. Ok lets get down to the gist of the models. Models are somewhat different still in their handling of QPF, and storm track as well as intensity and they differ on degree of phasing between all three jet streams. The models have trended stronger with the pacific jet stream energy disturbance over the northern Plains now. this swings southeastward, and depending upon how far south it gets will help determine which model is correct as well as which storm track is correct. On water vapor imagery, one can see a distinct area of vorticity spinning in the atmosphere, this is our southern stream (Pacific jet ) disturbance. With its own moisture source from the Pacific and the Rocky Mountains not doing much to stop the moisture from entraining into the Northern PLains is dumping a good to decent amount of snowfall over the northern Plains towards Detroit, MI. this energy is being forced to the southeast by a large arctic jet gyre or upper level low pressure system diving southward into the Great Lakes tomorrow morning. This trough carries our southern stream disturbance up the east Coast combining with the GULF OF MEXICO energy and low pressure center combined to bring a singular coastal low pressure center that will be rapidly deepening as it head north-northeastward up the East Coast. This earlier phase now expected to happen by most guidance models, is actually allowing the system to track more offshore rather than up the NYC harbor. Benchmark track or Cape Cod track is the final question that needs to be answered. I am going with a forecast mix of the GFS/EURO/NAM models. Using the NAM for QPF output based upon the GFS progressiveness bias in these circumstances in which the storm is allowed to slow down due to the phasing of jets in which the large upper level low phases into the southern stream disturbance and slows it down before departing. I think the low will move from the benchmark to about just east of ACK and CHH producing a mix of rain/snow for coastal Cape Cod and Islands therefore I have Nantucket in the 0-4" range and Harwich to Bourne in the 8-12" range, Chatham will likely see less with 4-8" of snow. the GFS produces a ton of moisture but it falls over the ocean, this is bound to move over land, but where will help determine who gets how much, for now I will leave the 18-24" isolated 30" amounts in banding in the position it is in now. Temperatures tonight will be in the low teens once again. Tomorrow afternoon highs will be near 30F and lows will be near 20F, I don't see how a low 40s ocean warms an arctic air mass with a northerly component to the wind field over Cape Cod, but regardless my forecast carries a mix over Cape Cod therefore only about 8-12" will fall before the changeover. Thunder snows and intense snowfall rates will be likely before the changeover occurs if it does at all. the GFS is all snow except for about a changeover briefly of about .2" of QPF as rain. That shouldn't matter much. the other aspect to this storm is the wind damage and blizzard conditions. I think blizzard conditions are likely even for Cape Cod and the NWS will likely issue a blizzard warning for us instead of a winter storm warning. Hurricane force winds are likely for Cape Cod, Cape Ann and Nantucket and all along the NH and Maine immediate coastline. Also Downeast ME sees only a few inches given that the low tracks west of them bringing in warm air off the ocean from the southeast. Thank you
NAM and its parallel model both show extensive potential for ferocious wind gusts on Tuesday late morning through the afternoon hours. there remains a window of 6-12 hours where winds could gust as high as 105mph according to the NAM model. Stay tuned for further updates.