Here is my third and final snow map for the Nor'easter tonight into Wednesday morning, 24 hour duration of snow, 24-30" in the jack pot zones likely, widespread 12-18" in all of eastern New England, snowfall rates may exceed 3-4"/hour, thundersnow potential is real, whiteout conditions will run rampant, high of around 35F and low around 28F on Tuesday for the Cape Cod area. Blizzard warnings are likely later this afternoon once the 12z package rolls through. Big potential for top three snowfall in Harwich, MA. My snowfall map is for New England only
Here is the first snow map for the March 12-14th Nor'easter, looks colder than previous two nor'easters so there is a heavy snow component unlike the last two, and a very serious wind component which could bring hurricane force wind gusts to Cape Cod and the Islands during the day Tuesday with blizzard conditions at the same time due to heavy falling snow, accumulations east of CT look very reasonable SW CT gets the least amount this go around.
A monster storm is beginning to organize over the Northern PLains to the Southeastern US states this afternoon, a large energetic disturbance is causing a southwesterly jet to enhance precipitation across the Southeast, a large plume of low level moisture sits off the southwestern Peninsula of Florida at this time in the form of major thunderstorms producing a lot of rain. Cold air is coming southward from the arctic region in the form of an upper level trough this trough will enter the US tomorrow morning in the form of a potential closed off upper level low, the newest 12z models produce 1-2' of snow for the Cape and Islands, before all said and done central MA and CT will receive 1-2' while the eastern MA and RI coastlines will receive the most snow from this storm, this looks like an all snow event on all models. 2-3' looks more probable at this time, this is a high end snowstorm event with wind potentially reaching hurricane force in gusts, stay tuned!
This is my only snowfall map for the Noreaster of March 7-8th 2018. Thundersnow is apparent in NJ and NYC and especially in the warm conveyor belt south of SNE where lightning is immense underneath very cold cloud tops where convection is. these heavier snow rates will bring down the cold air from the 850mb layer of the atmosphere and lead to potential snowfall over the Cape and Islands tonight the R/S line will crash southeast as the surface low is forecasted to move southeast of Nantucket and Chatham and is being reported as east of the 20z analysis of the 12z/18z NAM runs and 12z RGEM run, this should bode well for the Cape and Islands as this will keep the 925mb 0C line southeast of the area and should promote dynamic cooling to the surface, we shall see, otherwise there is another nor'easter on the models for Monday of next week that looks a little more dangerous than this storm tonight. We shall see! Current observations: Harwich, MA 38F temp, ENE wind gusty, and raining
A significant snowstorm is likely for Southern New England on Sunday. Snowfall amounts near 6-10" is likely from NE PA to Boston, MA, on the immediate coastline temps will be closer to freezing so snowfall will be wetter consistency and therefore lesser amounts than slightly inland where I have 6-8" from west of 128 to NYC and Long Island, NY. Snowfall map below:
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Right now the pattern supports a cold and snowy regime with the PNA staying positive throughout the month, while the NAO stays positive, which means a rather progressive regime stays in place and we will likely see an oscillating AO pattern which produces some polar vortex lobes of energy to phase into the southern stream disturbances and that is how we get our nor'easters. I am still suspect thinking on the Monday storm, right now models have a second piece of energy phasing into the eastern US troughing just as the cold front tries to clear the New England coastline. NAM is west with the frontal zone and therefore the track of the surface low, while the GFS/CMC are further offshore with the secondary low. EURO somewhere offshore as well, but this model has done absolutely nothing but kill itself in this range, which is 48 hours out. Stay tuned, I think Monday event could trend better for South Coast of New England including the Cape and Islands.
Snow threats along with a wind threat exists on Monday while a snow threat exists on Friday. Increasing model support for a 3-6/4-8" event like the one on Tuesday for Friday and a bigger event 6-12"+ on Monday into Tuesday of next week Monday. Stay tuned to the forecasts as they will be increasingly likely for a significant event on Monday and a solid event on Friday. Trough in the east and ridge in the west pattern will continue throughout February
This is my final map for this snowstorm. Not as widespread with the snowfall amounts, 12:1 ratios make sense as it will get colder throughout the storm. Ocean enhancement/effect snows will add to the amounts over mid and outer Cape Cod. Not buying latest NAM run as the hires NAM shows significant accumulations for the south shore, Cape and Islands. Winds might be a problem with the fluffy snowfall. Blizzard like conditions will hamper travel tomorrow night into the morning hours on Tuesday. I will get video of the heavy snow as 1"/hour snowfall rates are possible for a time Tuesday morning.
Rain will start off our Sunday morning and will either stop entirely on Sunday night and then start as Snowfall on Monday afternoon. It will fall heavily for a few hours as there is decent lift in the Dendrite Snow Growth zone over the Cape and Islands, if the west trend continues into the 12z runs tomorrow afternoon hours then we could see more than 8" on the Outer Cape and Nantucket. This is my final snow map as this is the most likely amounts.
12z and 18z models beginning to indicate a secondary shortwave riding up the coastline forming a coastal storm on the frontal boundary and could become quite potent
-winter storm threat is increasing as models gain confidence in what disturbance will do what on Sunday through Tuesday
-Snow threat remains high, models increasing precipitation into the region as a frontal boundary plows offshore and the coastal low develops into a powerful nor'easter
-as Nor'easter develops a potentcy wind threat increases out of the northeast
- as nor'easter strengthens coastal flooding becomes a threat
-Please stay tuned to the latest updates from the Taunton NWS WFO
**Winter Storm Alert**
- development of a coastal nor'easter is becoming possible in the day 5-7 time frame
- cold air looks to reenter the region as a cold front passes through sometime between the 27th and 28th of January followed by a nor'easter threat around the 29th
- Region in most danger is Southern and Northern New England
-danger level is low at this time, due to uncertainty, stay tuned!
This map is the combined storm threats the next four days, I included the Thursday storm because I believe that the models will come northwest with the coastal storm on Thursday enough to add a few inches to the forecast for Cape Cod. I believe 12"+ will occur on the Cape, south and north shores of Boston, MA as this is combining all three events which it looks like all three will contribute 3-6" of snow to this part of the region. Most of the rest of the region will be 6-9 or 9-12" from the Wednesday event alone. Coastline gets their snow Wednesday into Thursday from two likely different events
My next post is about the potential snows from Saturday evening through Thursday morning. Models are in general agreement that the potentials for Ocean Effect Snow from Sunday through Tuesday and then storm produced snows from Wednesday through Thursday due to a coastal storm is on the table. However, this post will solely focus on the Ocean Effect Snow potentials. First is the event Sunday through Monday. Mesoscale WRF-NMM and WRF-ARW both support a single band of ocean effect snowfall impacting the region of Cape Cod from Hyannis to Chatham and Provincetown on Northerly winds from 900mb to the surface, which means a single convergence band is more likely than multiple bands of snow which are less intense. These two models keep the band over this region from about 12z Sunday to 00z Monday or later, that is at least 12 hours or more of heavy snowfall over this area of the outer cape, this could produce more than 6" of snow, we will have to see the next few runs until the event starts and then diagnose the real short range models and what they produce. For now the potential exists of a few inches to as much as 6" or more over the Outer Cape Cod area. Stay tuned!
Latest NAM run 00z shows a strong potential for ocean effect snow event from the Cape Cod Canal eastward to Provincetown on northerly winds, also unidirectional wind flow from 900mb to the surface indicates a single band event is probable along with a strong instability burst from 850mb to surface ocean temperature differential (Delta Ts) of 18-20C which is sufficient enough to produce heavy snows over the Cape and Islands. Also the flow is stronger than 10mph which should be sufficient enough for consistent band developing as we transition into a clipper low for the next few days. Big storm potential if the clipper low slows down its movement like the latest 12z guidance suggests at H5 with the low developing and closing off the H5 flow over the Northeast US. This will prolong the snow chances from Sunday morning to Wednesday afternoon for overall snow chances. Stay tuned!
12z models trending towards a major coastal redeveloping nor'easter come next Tuesday into Wednesday. NWS Taunton WFO has a 50% of snow in the forecast for Tuesday and 40% chance of snow for Wednesday, depending upon whether or not the trough closes off at H5 into a low will determine the duration of this winter storm, could be anywhere between 18-36 hours of snow
I added lollis of 24"+ to the map because I seriously think the storm hits the benchmark and pushes the snowfall further west, Hartford, CT to Boston, MA gets 12-24" of snow overall with less on the Cape and Nantucket due to more rain forecasted, this storm came west congrats people along and west of I95 corridor