6z GFS produces over a foot of snow for my location in the next week, it combines the first storm on December 9th and something after it on December 11th, still 72 hours before the first flakes or drops
While I am sounding the alarm currently for preparations, I am not sold on the current solution in the model consensus. WE have explosive dynamics coming into play that the models are overlooking currently. First we have arctic air spilling over the Gulf Stream gradient, that is so useful for nor'easters. Second we have an arctic jet disturbance that is so amplified and caught in a very amplified flow the trough will move into a negative tilted state. This will allow extreme cyclogenesis to occur south of Southern New England and east of NJ. Models including the 12z GFS and 12z EURO have caught their eyes on the second shortwave in the bunch and want to amplify the flow to favor this nor'easter. The current amounts in the model fields are 3-6" and 8"+ for the coastline of Massachusetts. However, I think this may be a case of overachiever central, a massive amount of snow is possible. I will have more after the 18z GFS
These images on top are from the 18z GFS run tonight, from hours 300-348, they show the evolution of our southern stream disturbance phasing with the large northern stream long wave trough, acting as at least a double phased jet structured storm if not three jets with the arctic jet also getting involved. Only triple phased streams allow a 940mb surface low to develop over DE ME. Could a storm of this magnitude evolve in this pattern for mid month? Absolutely, but how accurate is the model? Horribly inconsistent, but when it smells out a storm potential this is the time range it does it in. For the last two consecutive model runs for the GFS it has shown two monster storms back to back mid month of December, this first one is a triple point low, the second is a consolidated low, but we have potential for snow next week, so I won't get carried away with this shortwave, as the first shortwave with this new pattern can slam New England hard with heavy snow. So I will focus next few blogs on the short term.
This is the 500mb imagery from the 12z GFS, from hours 300 to 384, these eight images suggest a powerful nor'easter takes about 150 mile path east of Boston, MA as a 968mb low, an offshore storm favoring the coastal regions of New England around December 16th 2017, about 15 days from now.
As a weather weenie, what separates our love for the weather from most people on this Earth? What triggers our emotional senses when a snowstorm doesn't go our way? What do we know of ourselves that makes us love the snow? Simply put, it is our passion. We love it as much as the next person loves candy, or his or her Boyfriend or girlfriend. We love the weather because we are passionate about it as much as we are curious when it doesn't follow our projections. So why tell you this? Because it appears in the next ten days, the weather across the northeastern USA is going through a transition period, where for the first six days this week and next week it will remain in the 40s and 50s, then it will take a coastal storm to bring rain at the coastline and snow inland to get us over the hump as a powerful arctic front will trigger temperature swings towards the 60s, then usher in the ARCTIC HOUNDS, because the chill is coming for the foreseeable future. Not only will be in a very cold pattern, we will also be in a stormy wintry pattern favoring snowfall for all of New England even coastal Cape Cod and Nantucket. Here is what I am seeing in the 12z suite this afternoon. First we have a -EPO pattern shaping up across the Eastern Pacific and Alaska were a tremendous polar ridge is setting up in the long term pattern, with the PNA region supporting a positive vibe, so ridging over BC and Western USA, favoring above normal temps in my brother's hometown for now San Diego, CA. Then we have a -NAO pattern regime coming together with the +PNA pattern supporting blocking over the North Atlantic Ocean and Greenland, this will act to amplify and slow down any coastal nor'easters that have the ability to spin up in this pattern. We also have a very negative AO pattern shaping up with a ton of ridging high pressure cells over the arctic circle allowing that arctic air to spill down the backside of the Alaskan polar ridge and into the central and eastern 2/3rds of the nation coming December 7th and beyond. We have at least two snow chances in the long term period from day ten onward. So snow lovers rejoice, our time is coming. Plus a warm GULF STREAM OSCILLATION leads to explosive cyclogenesis and extreme baroclinicity for the Eastern US seaboard, equals major snowstorms. Good luck!
The forecast for snow and cold looks dim the next 10 days, however beyond that time period, looks to the first real chance at a snowy and cold regime over New England and at least as far south as the 38N latitude line. Anyone south of that latitude needs to wait until further into January time frame, but for those of us north of that latitude, the pattern change is being seen by most of the guidance after day 7-9 time frame, it looks like after December 4th an arctic front swings through the Northeastern USA states and brings a return of true arctic air and snow could be a possibility. Stay tuned! Right now it looks like a 60% chance at seeing at least 2 snowstorms, while a 40% chance exists that we see suppression depression.
If you want to help with writing a movie script about the end of the world you can help me out, just add your email address I will email you a copy of the character list and the start to my new movie script I am writing. SO I can use anyone with experience or with the love to write and who is dedicated to writing a masterpiece of art. Thanks!
James Warren Nichols Productions
I could use the presence of an experienced writer who loves to write and work on a story that will blow the top off the competition. Every movie studio will want this script someday, if we work hard on it together. Speak up, I need you to help out. You need to want to write with me.
Cape Cod has not had a real snowstorm on Thanksgiving since my birth year, 28 years ago on Thanksgiving. I was supposed to be baptized in the Roman Catholic Church a few months after my birth, which happened to be Thanksgiving week. However, we had a great snowstorm that dumped almost a foot and a half of snow. My parents have pictures they showed us growing up. I have always wanted a white Thanksgiving and Christmas in the same year, wouldn't that be fascinating if this was the year? Trouble though, my family and I are celebrating the holiday in Hilton Head, SC, so there is a dilemma here. A part of me wants a white Thanksgiving and celebrate it at home with my immediate family and experience a snowstorm, the other part of me wants the snow to hold off until Sunday after the holiday when we are home to enjoy it. Oh well. GFS has a holiday storm shaping up on the November 14th 00z run around Wednesday of next week. IF this indeed is the case, my family isn't going to SC for the holiday. Model agreement would be good within 10 days, but the pattern shaping up continues the cold and stormy outlook into the first few weeks of December, and I like my chances for snow on the coast in December, not November, although it is rare, it isn't unlikely. Teleconnections support a stormy and cold end for November and beginning of December. We will get our front loaded chances this winter for snow. However, I think it will take until January to get the true blizzard type of weather patterns, but I could be wrong stay tuned!
Anyone want to cowrite a movie script with me, I am open to most replies. Tomorrow I am working on character names and design. Help me out, just email at [email protected] or instant message me at USCAPEWEATHERAF on this site, thanks looking for the first few replies. So be the first one to reply.
James Warren Nichols Productions
Ok, remember the last few posts have been about the past, well today's blog is about the future. IN the next 8-10 days periods of cold and rain are possible with a few mix events, but the main event looks to be in the Saturday/Sunday timeframe for New England storm system. Questions remain, but the gist of the future is that a potential coastal storm is looming. Currently models are not far enough south with the low, so it appears it will be a rain event, but with a Greenland block and PNA ridging, cold air looks strong and should push the upper level low to the southwest over time on the model forecasts. We will have to continue to monitor future runs. For now, potential exists for a snowstorm in New England.
Remembering a blizzard that I believed to be epic was not so long ago where I can't remember any details. This one was two about to be three winters ago. The winter of 2014-2015 was boring and dull as well as rarely cold to start, the first month of that winter was warm and boring. Christmas Day was warm, it was raining and in the 50s, cleared by the afternoon. Cape Cod winters are not promised a thing snowfall wise. However, since the winter of 2002-2003 winters have been kinder to the snow lover living on the Cape Cod peninsula. Since then I have witnessed numerous 18"+ snowstorms, and even before that winter, but not the frequency we have since that winter. Our two best winters for snow loving people were in 2004-2005 and ten years later 2014-2015, both winters we received 98" in 04-05 and 72" 14-15. In both of those winters we received two comparable blizzards, in the 04-05 winter we received an 18" snowstorm the day after Christmas and in 14-15 we received a 15" snowstorm two weeks into the month of February. So onto witnessing the blizzard. I now had a blizzard to compare this current behemoth too. Back in 04-05 we never experienced more than 2 feet of snow from any one storm. However, the Jan 05 Blizzard brought almost three feet of snow, we missed three feet by one inch. Numerous locations along the Eastern MA coastline received more than 35", Sandwich received 35", Falmouth got 38" and Salem, MA got 38". The blizzard three winters ago brought a grand total of 32" to Harwich, MA, my front yard. What was so fascinating with the Blizzard Juno was that it kept coming with the heavy snow bands across the Outer Cape and Nantucket. The rain/snow forecasted to come as close to Hyannis as possible Tuesday afternoon cutting our snow total in half. However, that night Tuesday early morning hours, I woke up and the NWS point click forecast brought the afternoon high temperatures down from mid 30s to 32F, that day, the temperature didn't break 31F. Why did the forecasts break so badly for the pros? Because simply they overestimated the EURO model's temperatures. If they went with conventional wisdom, they would have seen that the EURO was overamplified and too far west with the low track, I saw the low tracking eastward of the benchmark, not west. SO I went for the overhaul in the forecast snow totals, I told Cape Cod residents to look out, we are getting 30"+ from this storm. It felt like the Blizzard of 05, the local tv mets brought our totals down in both epic storms. Following the storm on this forum was nothing but a bunch full of awesomeness. Great radar recognitions by our mets, and Will (Orh_wxman), and Scott N. (Coastalwx) they did a fabulous job updating the weenies including myself on the latest radar trends for Juno. Mike Seidel on the TWC and his amazing footage caught on camera in Plymouth, MA wow. And RIP Clinchwood, miss you man. He brought an certain attitude towards his observations that you could just resonate towards. Man what an epic storm. That forum keeps me going during the non snow months. From the early its going east to the no its coming posts to the oh man 12" is nothing to the 30"+ amounts over Worcester MA. To Scott's (CoastalWx) posts about "Its not gonna happen James", that put the icing on the cake. Thanks guys for a wonderful time, let's do it again this winter.
Other than the news that my second novel is progressing well today, we have some weather to discuss. Teleconnections tell us what kind of 500mb pattern we can expect to shape up in that time frame. Normally 2-4 days, his medium to high confidence, 4-8 days is low to medium and 8+ days is usually low confidence for various reasons. Our snowstorm potential exists because two thirds of our pattern is showing a good sign for a snowstorm to impact the New England region. First we have to have a neutral or positive PNA, now if we have a +NAO, we normally need a +PNA, but if we have a -NAO we can compensate for having a neutral PNA, and if we have a -NAO/-AO combo than cold air will be present, but it could be over the plains and Great Lakes rather than over our region and we can expect rainy conditions as milder air pours over the region with the storm track to our west, perhaps producing inland cutters or inland runners. Now if we have a +PNA/-NAO/-AO combo of all three present, than we can pretty much assume an East Coast blizzard, why? 500mb patterns! At 500mb a +PNA index represents riding in the WNAM region and a trough in the ENAM region or Eastern North American region. Models are beginning to show colder air infiltrating our region by segments, the strongest segment comes around the 19th. Stay tuned as there is a lot to determine before I make a call that could cost my dad thousands of dollars.
First snow of the season looks to be supported by most of the guidance we use for forecasting our weather across the CONUS. Our weather in New England this time of year gets particularly colder as we venture to the beginning of November through the end of March, this time period is notorious for heavy snowstorms, more so towards DEC through FEB sometimes including NOV and MAR. This winter supports a La Nina pattern, although weak, but present should feature more of a negative PNA and positive NAO, but you never know how these blocks of the atmosphere will behave. We could have our first widespread snowstorm either NOV 9-11 or NOV 14-16th of this upcoming two week period as the PV (polar vortex) enters our side of the hemisphere and tries to get involved in our air masses from Canada and the Arctic Circle. We are entering the season for explosive nor'easters in the North Atlantic/Arctic region which lends us to believe that cold air is indeed present on our side of the hemisphere, now this upcoming week from Thursday Nov 2nd to Nov 9th will be a step down period from modestly warm weather tomorrow through the weekend to appreciably colder and perhaps an arctic chill to the air will be felt next weekend, this should set the stage for our first rain/snow storm. Stay tuned!
GFS if right shows snow occurring over the coastal waters of Cape Cod on November 16th. Could this be the mark of the first snow of the season? Stay tuned, next two weeks will determine whats real and what is not.
"Dawn Awakening: The Apocalypse is Now", is a heart wrenching tale about the end of the world through the study of geology. Together we will experience, life, death and destruction of the world in a process known as the, "Earth Core Pulse", a theory I created on an epic energetic pulse of ultimate energy emanating from the Earth's Core throughout the faults of the Earth, and where it all starts, the Philippines, explodes into dust and heat is generated throughout the oceans as various earthquakes erupt along the fault lines of the Earth. This novel will be such an experience, that this author has never written before in his lifetime, it will be a journey through the characters that has never happened before in our lifetimes. This story will bring heartache, suspicion, suspense, heroic behavior and the ultimate giving of sacrificing one's life for the better good, for the ultimate good, in saving a person's life, putting a person's life ahead of their own safety. The ultimate sacrifice. Our hero Jack and heroine Abi, take us on an adventure, one only dreams of in the end, and today that journey begins. I cannot wait to give you this novel, because I want to surprise the world with my talents as a tremendous author with the talents of a great writer. This novel will prove that to the reader. You will want to continue to read my novels as they will be better and better, filled with tremendous action. Good luck, this might take me a full year to work on from now until Thanksgiving 2018. I will cherish this journey, because I want it to be the best out there ever.
Looking at the latest 12z model data, it appears that the last week of October through the Halloween holiday and into the first few weeks of November the Teleconnections will favor trough in the east and ridge in the west type pattern where sustained cold will be possible in New England north of 40N latitude. This could mean a stormy November in which cold air sinks into the Oh Valley centered in this region the trough will allow storms to come up the East Coast to the benchmark and give us precipitation perhaps in the form of snow or rain. GEFS. GFS, EURO, CMC all favor a long range pattern that is conducive for snow and cold, just how cold will be determined by a negative anomaly in the Arctic Oscillation cycle. This negative anomaly should allow a polar vortex or a vortex from the arctic circle to focus a cold air phase into the Northeastern US by November 1st. This should be a fun period folks, especially if blocking develops over the Atlantic Ocean.
SO the models are showing frigid air entering the northern Plains sometime in the next ten days and that cold air filters into the eastern US by day 13-16, which is the 27th and beyond of October. We could be seeing a change to much colder air eventually as winter gets closer. Most of our storms this winter will be from the Oh Valley to the Mid Atlantic coastal storm tracks, signifying that miller Bs and not Miller As will be the normalcy this winter.
Ok the pattern upcoming for the next two weeks is quite simple. Simply put, it remains a negative to neutral PNA, positive NAO and positive AO, this means cold air will continue to filter into the western Canada and Western US, while the eastern US and eastern Canada remain underneath a strong ridge of high pressure with southwesterly winds and warm temperatures. By the end of October, this pattern may switch to more seasonal temperatures showing a cooling trend by the beginning of November. the models show some semblance of a -AO/+PNA pattern emerging in the long range but the NAO remains positive or neutral at best. Time will tell, but we will certainly run into a winter cold snap sometime in the future, perhaps near.
Hey everyone of Americanwx.com foruims,
Today I inform you that my novel, 'The Dawn Awakening: Opening Segment" is being reviewed by a publishing company for potential publishing, keep me in your prayers, as we can get through the barrier of publishing. Thanks, I will have another updated blog on Thursday when they make the decision. Thanks!
James Warren Nichols