Could we see snow in the next 6-10 days, I believe so, do not pay attention to individual runs of the operational models, they will have flaws in them run to run, but look at the ensembles and their means and they will show you the way. I found this map on PSU EWALL website, the models are 12z runs of the EURO, GFS and CMC from left to right. They pretty much agree on ridging in Alaska, our -EPO/+PNA feature, along with a ridge in northern Greenland and some ridging in northeastern Canada west
A major winter storm is pegged to strike the Central US plains and the Central to western Great Lakes region later Sunday night through Tuesday of next week. This is all a part of a large weather system powered by a central US trough, anchored by a large upper-level low-pressure center. Large widespread snow amounts of 10-12" is possible especially in banding from MO to IL to MI. More widespread amounts of 3-6" is likely in the region either side of the 10-12" isolated 14". The system should
A rather potent -NAO block is occurring in our atmosphere in the Western Hemisphere this upcoming week into the weekend. The GFS forecasts 850mb temps to be rather mediocre for intense Ocean Effect Snows, but with northerly winds at the surface through 850mb, there is a strong chance we could see ocean enhanced snowfall later next week, around the 30th of November into the weekend. Stay tuned!
12z EURO and EPS mean show potential for blocking pattern for an east coast snowstorm, with cold air present, and a coastal storm on the New England coastline, models show potential for winter weather on the 27-29th of November, this could be a long duration event, but it could be rain on the coast. Right now specifics are not smart to forecast given its still 5 days away in time. This is still an eternity. However, models have flipped the pattern in the longer range to a less favorable patte
Right now the start time for the snow to enter the region is around 5 pm EST tonight after sunset as instability increases and winds come more northerly. This will bring snowfall rates near 2"/hour over the Cape.
I can finally say with confidence, after watching the models the last four days the minute this threat come up, we are going to have our first Ocean Effect Snow event this season. After watching the model data come in today, I will watch the models tonight, and after the GFS comes to pass, I will update the snowfall map I expect for Thanksgiving, the key is accumulations are likely. Stay tuned!
Eastern Cape Cod, east of Hyannis, MA will receive the bulk of the snow threat. Several inches is likely. 850mb temp to the surface of the ocean differential (Delta Ts) are around +30 to +32C, and this will provide the kind of instability that will lead to thundersnows. This is what the Tug Hill Plateau sees and so does Buffalo with SW winds. However, the Cape does well with NNW and N winds at the surface, if we get any convergence we will see a singular band producing 2-4"/hour snowfall rat
Due to the presence of an -20C 850mb temp anomalies, we can expect the presence of ocean effect snow squalls, on NNW winds across most of the mid to outer Cape Cod, NWS BOX mentions 40% chance at snow over my head in Harwich, MA, and a chance at a few inches in localized areas. Stay tuned! As snow squalls, tomorrow night could also add to travel hazards.
Arctic front comes through the region by 00z Thursday, Wednesday evening around 7 pm, OES cloud streets develop several hours later as 850mb temps drop 30-40 C, around -20C by Thursday 12z (7am EST), where the OES machine should be in full force, over the ocean south of Nova Scotia the accumulations would bring 6-12" of snow over the water, but given we are close to land and need a northerly wind, that chances are we see more than .5" of snow is around 15%, snow chance around 40%, that includes
Parameters are in place for an outbreak of snow showers and snow squalls on Cape Cod, early Thanksgiving through Friday afternoon of this upcoming holiday week. GFS forecasts -20C 850mb temps, coupled with +10C of ocean water temperatures equals a very unstable atmospheric profile, I will have to watch this potential closely as it is still about five days away. But the potential exists at least for festive flurries on Thanksgiving day. Stay tuned!
Right now if I were to do a snow map I would focus on areas just west of the Canal and focus on a Providence, RI to Boston, MA route along I95. Snow could accumulate quickly with a quick band of heavy snows, precip shows about .50 to .75" of a quick burst on the GFS and its members, EURO and CMC are too far southeast for anything substantial at this time. And NAM is just getting into the frame of time. Right now there is about a 35% chance the mid levels of the atmosphere could be cold enough
Models are beginning to show signs of a potential winter storm in the 6-8 day period. EURO and GGEM show this storm impacting SNE, with ocean effect snows and synoptic precip, the GGEM is a little warmer than the 00z EURO, which shows this potential as a trough swings through the upper level flow. I have been keying on this potential as there appears to be a Quebec, Canada Arctic high in place north of the storm and north of NYS. This will lock in the cold air at the surface into the coastlin
While it seems impossible to ignore, the models are clearing showing signs of winter arriving earlier than the past several winters of New England. Snow could fall as early as next week across the lower Southern Plains of OK, KS, and TX and then move into New England as the southern stream becomes active and perhaps develop with the arctic stream to phase and develop a significant nor'easter with cold temperatures over the region. Would like to see more and better model support over the next t
A massive Great Lakes storm system will impact the US sometime in the next 7-8 days from now maybe sooner and will switch the pattern to an EC trough and WC ridge pattern favoring cold and stormy conditions for the Eastern CONUS in the mid to late month time frame. A massive snowstorm is a potential noise maker come November 12-18th period. The signal is increasing for a formidable Clipper approaching the EC to come after 10 days. EURO, GFS both have this system. Cold temps look to stay prev
The first moderate snowstorm of the fall season and winter season comes for Tuesday into Wednesday, October 23-24th, 2018 from Caribou, ME CWA northwestward into the mountains of NW Maine, where up to 8" is possible, and forecasted by the models. I have my first snowfall map this year posted in the NNE fall thread and I will post below. An arctic jet will come southeastward during the late weekend into the early weekdays of the next few days. As it hits the SE New England coastline a surface
Anomalous +PNA ridge blocking regime seems fit for the end of the month weeks into early November, this pattern should yield a powerful storm with orgins in the Arctic Realm. The questions arise on the arrival of the arctic jet, how close does it phase into the southern trough in the El Nino regime developing over the Pacific Ocean, equator seems fascinating with SSTs pattern and aloft in the atmosphere. Will share more later tomorrow.
Since the pattern has changed and we are now in an active northern stream regime, cold air will be getting worse and worse, deeper and deeper in nature as each trough takes aim at the New England region, where eventually we will see our first snow in SNE around the first week in November as cold air becomes sustained, Mount Washington, New Hampshire already saw their first snow of the year. +PNA/-NAO pattern has begun and could sustain itself for quite awhile into January or beyond. Still a lo
A huge start in the peak of hurricane season will begin tomorrow afternoon as a tropical wave continues to emerge off the Western African Coastline east of the Cabo Verde Islands. The dangerous storm will develop by Monday, Labor Day. over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean.