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December 13-14th Clipper Snowfall Map and Discussion

Thursday morning could bring our first snow fall accumulation of the season for Cape Cod and the Islands, a shortwave rounding the base of the H5 trough this evening will bring a shot of arctic air to the region where highs tomorrow and the rest of the work week will remain below freezing.  We now have a very potent vorticity max disturbance in the northern jet stream flow that will amplify some as it rounds the base of the somewhat negatively tilted trough over the Northeastern US.  Snow will be falling across central MI tomorrow morning and then will quickly move towards western PA and Pittsburgh area by the evening and then redevelop off the NJ coastline by Thursday early morning hours, and then be around the benchmark 40/70 location by midday Thursday.  Depending upon the jet dynamics and the oceanic influence of the surface cyclogenesis process we could see a rapidly developing system bring snow to the south coast of New England by 6z Thursday morning and lasting for nine to twelve hours.  If enough lift can develop we could see a good to decent snow amount and especially if we can get NE to NNE winds going than moisture will be a little problem.  Therefore I am predicting a could 2" on the Cape while the Islands can receive 3" of snow the most snow will occur across central WI to central MI and then islands of MA.  Still a lot of nowcasting to go and things could change drastically if that vorticity maximum is stronger on the models/

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Mid Week Potential Nor'easter Scenarios

There are two camps for the scenarios on the midweek storm potential for December 12-14th 2017.  I will illustrate them below.  Scenario One is a full blown Blizzard from NYC to BOS to Bangor, ME.  Scenario Two favors the Great Lakes and NNE with the heaviest snows.  Which one happens will be determined by jet dynamics, phase potential, and baroclinic zone potential placement as well as track of clipper and arctic shortwave troughs in the flow.  Scenarios are not forecasts, they are there to show potential either way.  I will be updating the blog with my newest snow fall map for this weekend's storm shortly.

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**00z Model update**

00z models show some moving southeastward with the snow threat this weekend and the GFS and CMC bring a coastal nor'easter threat and clipper threat to the Northeast next week, I will have an update after I wake up in the morning and then again after the 12z runs.

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**12z Model Update for storm this weekend**

Most of the afternoon and late morning model guidance has trended towards a much larger and more severe event with the exception being the GFS, while the GFS produces over 8" of snow for the Cape, it also is weaker with the storm for Saturday.  We are less than 72 hours away from the first impacts of this winter storm, mix with rain is possible on the MA coastline, including the islands of Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard.  Winter storm watches could be issued as soon as Thursday afternoon from Taunton and as early as tonight for the Deep Southern states of LA, TX, GA, FL, and NC and SC.  This storm reminds me of the 2004 Boxing Day Snowstorm, December 26-27th 2004

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**12z Model Update for storm this weekend**

Most of the afternoon and late morning model guidance has trended towards a much larger and more severe event with the exception being the GFS, while the GFS produces over 8" of snow for the Cape, it also is weaker with the storm for Saturday.  We are less than 72 hours away from the first impacts of this winter storm, mix with rain is possible on the MA coastline, including the islands of Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard.  Winter storm watches could be issued as soon as Thursday afternoon from Taunton and as early as tonight for the Deep Southern states of LA, TX, GA, FL, and NC and SC.  This storm reminds me of the 2004 Boxing Day Snowstorm, December 26-27th 2004

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Nor'easter Alert **

While I am sounding the alarm currently for preparations, I am not sold on the current solution in the model consensus.  WE have explosive dynamics coming into play that the models are overlooking currently.  First we have arctic air spilling over the Gulf Stream gradient, that is so useful for nor'easters.  Second we have an arctic jet disturbance that is so amplified and caught in a very amplified flow the trough will move into a negative tilted state.  This will allow extreme cyclogenesis to occur south of Southern New England and east of NJ.  Models including the 12z GFS and 12z EURO have caught their eyes on the second shortwave in the bunch and want to amplify the flow to favor this nor'easter.  The current amounts in the model fields are 3-6" and 8"+ for the coastline of Massachusetts.  However, I think this may be a case of overachiever central, a massive amount of snow is possible.  I will have more after the 18z GFS

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Comparing the Last Two GFS runs for Fantasy storm 2

These images on top are from the 18z GFS run tonight, from hours 300-348, they show the evolution of our southern stream disturbance phasing with the large northern stream long wave trough, acting as at least a double phased jet structured storm if not three jets with the arctic jet also getting involved.  Only triple phased streams allow a 940mb surface low to develop over DE ME.  Could a storm of this magnitude evolve in this pattern for mid month?  Absolutely, but how accurate is the model?  Horribly inconsistent, but when it smells out a storm potential this is the time range it does it in.  For the last two consecutive model runs for the GFS it has shown two monster storms back to back mid month of December, this first one is a triple point low, the second is a consolidated low, but we have potential for snow next week, so I won't get carried away with this shortwave, as the first shortwave with this new pattern can slam New England hard with heavy snow.  So I will focus next few blogs on the short term.

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Pattern Change towards arctic cold and snow returns for the first time this year

As a weather weenie, what separates our love for the weather from most people on this Earth?  What triggers our emotional senses when a snowstorm doesn't go our way?  What do we know of ourselves that makes us love the snow?  Simply put, it is our passion.  We love it as much as the next person loves candy, or his or her Boyfriend or girlfriend.  We love the weather because we are passionate about it as much as we are curious when it doesn't follow our projections.  So why tell you this?  Because it appears in the next ten days, the weather across the northeastern USA is going through a transition period, where for the first six days this week and next week it will remain in the 40s and 50s, then it will take a coastal storm to bring rain at the coastline and snow inland to get us over the hump as a powerful arctic front will trigger temperature swings towards the 60s, then usher in the ARCTIC HOUNDS, because the chill is coming for the foreseeable future.  Not only will be in a very cold pattern, we will also be in a stormy wintry pattern favoring snowfall for all of New England even coastal Cape Cod and Nantucket.  Here is what I am seeing in the 12z suite this afternoon.  First we have a -EPO pattern shaping up across the Eastern Pacific and Alaska were a tremendous polar ridge is setting up in the long term pattern, with the PNA region supporting a positive vibe, so ridging over BC and Western USA, favoring above normal temps in my brother's hometown for now San Diego, CA.  Then we have a -NAO pattern regime coming together with the +PNA pattern supporting blocking over the North Atlantic Ocean and Greenland, this will act to amplify and slow down any coastal nor'easters that have the ability to spin up in this pattern.  We also have a very negative AO pattern shaping up with a ton of ridging high pressure cells over the arctic circle allowing that arctic air to spill down the backside of the Alaskan polar ridge and into the central and eastern 2/3rds of the nation coming December 7th and beyond.  We have at least two snow chances in the long term period from day ten onward.  So snow lovers rejoice, our time is coming.  Plus a warm GULF STREAM OSCILLATION leads to explosive cyclogenesis and extreme baroclinicity for the Eastern US seaboard, equals major snowstorms.  Good luck!

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First Cape Cod MA snow? - After December 4th??????

The forecast for snow and cold looks dim the next 10 days, however beyond that time period, looks to the first real chance at a snowy and cold regime over New England and at least as far south as the 38N latitude line.  Anyone south of that latitude needs to wait until further into January time frame, but for those of us north of that latitude, the pattern change is being seen by most of the guidance after day 7-9 time frame, it looks like after December 4th an arctic front swings through the Northeastern USA states and brings a return of true arctic air and snow could be a possibility.  Stay tuned!  Right now it looks like a 60% chance at seeing at least 2 snowstorms, while a 40% chance exists that we see suppression depression.

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Dawn Awakening: End of the World

If you want to help with writing a movie script about the end of the world you can help me out, just add your email address I will email you a copy of the character list and the start to my new movie script I am writing.  SO I can use anyone with experience or with the love to write and who is dedicated to writing a masterpiece of art.  Thanks!   James Warren Nichols Productions

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A New England Thanksgiving Snowstorm?

Cape Cod has not had a real snowstorm on Thanksgiving since my birth year, 28 years ago on Thanksgiving.  I was supposed to be baptized in the Roman Catholic Church a few months after my birth, which happened to be Thanksgiving week.  However, we had a great snowstorm that dumped almost a foot and a half of snow.  My parents have pictures they showed us growing up.  I have always wanted a white Thanksgiving and Christmas in the same year, wouldn't that be fascinating if this was the year?  Trouble though, my family and I are celebrating the holiday in Hilton Head, SC, so there is a dilemma here.  A part of me wants a white Thanksgiving and celebrate it at home with my immediate family and experience a snowstorm, the other part of me wants the snow to hold off until Sunday after the holiday when we are home to enjoy it.  Oh well.  GFS has a holiday storm shaping up on the November 14th 00z run around Wednesday of next week.  IF this indeed is the case, my family isn't going to SC for the holiday.  Model agreement would be good within 10 days, but the pattern shaping up continues the cold and stormy outlook into the first few weeks of December, and I like my chances for snow on the coast in December, not November, although it is rare, it isn't unlikely.  Teleconnections support a stormy and cold end for November and beginning of December.  We will get our front loaded chances this winter for snow.  However, I think it will take until January to get the true blizzard type of weather patterns, but I could be wrong stay tuned!

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