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Severe WX Outlook Through Friday Morning: NE/mid-Atl.

Low pressure develops across Pennsylvania later today and I am expecting at least some isolated severe thunderstorms across the region. Isolated thunderstorm threat... Satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies with just some high clouds across eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey. Daytime heating is expected to push surface temperatures well into the 80's along with dew-points that are already in the upper 60's to lower 70's. In the warm sector well ahead of a cold front (east of the Appalachi

Quincy

Quincy

 

Flash Flood and Possible Isolated Tornado Threat Thursday - Saturday

An area of low pressure is expected to come out of the Gulf of Mexico and up the east coast, while another disturbance approaches us from the West in the Thursday - Saturday time frame. These two systems will attempt to pump in a rich plume of moisture from the south and east, setting the stage for heavy downpours with any showers and thunderstorms that develop. No widespread severe weather is expected, but I would not rule out an isolated tornado with this system(s) ... with a somewhat favorabl

thunderman

thunderman

 

May 31, 2013 Oklahoma City Traffic/Chaser Debacle

I generally stay away from opinion posts in this blog, but the events that transpired yesterday deserve attention. First, I think that it needs to be pointed out that chasers and spotters provide invaluable information to the National Weather Service in the form of ground truth. This is a concept that most of the general public (and even some meteorologists) on the East Coast do not fully understand. Without these folks burning their personal gas, warning lead times could be substantially dif

thunderman

thunderman

 

Recap: Tornadoes in New York, May 29th, 2013

Two tornadoes (an EF-2 and an EF-1) touched down in eastern New York on Wednesday, both around 7:00 p.m., according to the National Weather Service (NWS). The stronger tornado, an EF-2, had winds of up to 125 MPH and caused damage along a relatively wide and long path. The tornado width was estimated at 1 mile wide with a track length of 17 miles from Florida to Rotterdam. The second tornado formed just to the southwest of the EF-2 tornado, around the same time. It was a weaker and shorter-liv

Quincy

Quincy

 

Severe WX Outlook, Northeast: Wednesday, May 29th

As a warm front lifts into the Northeastern United States on Wednesday, a warmer, more humid air-mass floods into the Northeast. Some thunderstorm development is forecast and some of those storms may be capable of reaching severe limits, particularly across portions of New York and west-central New England. Low threat (Conditions are somewhat favorable for severe thunderstorms) Interior New England, New York, northwestern New Jersey and norther Pennsylvania: As a warm front clears, an increas

Quincy

Quincy

 

Severe WX Outlook, Mid-Atl.: Wednesday, May 15th

As a warm front lifts into the Northeastern United States on Wednesday, some thunderstorm development is forecast and some of those storms may be capable of reaching severe limits. Low threat (Conditions are somewhat favorable for severe thunderstorms) Central Pennsylvania and portions of Maryland: A warm front is expected to lift into the Northeast on Wednesday. The focus is across the warm sector where some strong wind shear combines with surface/low-level instability to enhance the severe

Quincy

Quincy

 

Recap: Tornado in Massachusetts, May 9th, 2013

The National Weather Service (NWS) reported that an EF-0 tornado touched down in eastern Massachusetts Thursday afternoon, shortly after 4:30 p.m. An upper level low lifted northward through New England on Thursday. An unseasonably cold air mass was in place, resulting in cold temperatures aloft. It was the combination of low Lifted Condensation Levels (LCL's) and moderate wind shear aloft that helped create an environment that was marginally supportive of tornado development. It is possible th

Quincy

Quincy

 

Severe WX Outlook, NE, Mid-Atl.: Saturday, May 11th

As a cold front moves towards the East Coast on Saturday, some thunderstorm development is possible during the afternoon and early evening hours. Low threat (Conditions are somewhat favorable for severe thunderstorms) Mid-Atlantic region (east of Appalachians), lower Hudson Valley and SW New England. Conditions will destabilize in a warm, somewhat moist air-mass before an approaching cold front swings from west to east through the area. The biggest question mark is how much daytime heating wi

Quincy

Quincy

 

April Forecast Verification for Inland Connecticut

I've been creating daily 6-day forecasts for the better part of this year, with a focus on inland Connecticut. Before making any forecast, I take a close look at the computer model forecasts through Day 6, including a few forecast techniques to see how verification pans out. In April, I had 29 days worth of data, out of a possible 30, to measure forecast accuracy. As expected, forecast error generally increases with time. It is interesting to note a spike at Day 5 and a decrease at Day 6. That

Quincy

Quincy

 

Severe WX Outlook, NE, Mid-Atl.: Wednesday, April 24th

A cold front is forecast to move from west to east across the East Coast on Wednesday. The result could mean scattered thunderstorms along the front, along with a few severe thunderstorms. (Marginal threat) Middle Appalachians into DE, PA, inland NJ and interior NY. A similar setup to this past Friday is expected on Wednesday, with a cold front moving across the area during the afternoon and evening hours. The only difference here is that the cold front is not as strong as that scenario (last

Quincy

Quincy

 

Recap: Tornado in New York, April 19th, 2013

The National Weather Service (NWS) confirmed that an EF-1 tornado touched down in New York state Friday evening, shortly before 8 p.m. A strong cold front moved across Pennsylvania and New York state late Friday evening. At the same time, a marginally unstable air-mass was in place closer to the surface. With moderate to strong wind shear in place and significant storm relative helicity in place, the stage was set for damaging winds and even a marginal tornado threat. As a result, a Tornado Wa

Quincy

Quincy

 

Updated: Severe WX Outlook, NE, Mid-Atl.: Friday, April 19th

A strong cold front approaches the Appalachians Friday afternoon and evening. Along that cold front, a squall line with thunderstorms is currently expected is develop. (Marginal threat) Middle Appalachians into Pennsylvania, northwestern New Jersey and interior New York: Daytime heating is expected to push temperatures into the low to mid-70's in the valley locations with mid to upper 60's in the higher elevations. Low and mid-level clouds will likely limit just how unstable the atmosphere c

Quincy

Quincy

 

Severe WX Outlook, NE, Mid-Atl.: Friday, April 19th

A strong low pressure system is forecast to move up into the Great Lakes by Thursday and eventually into southeastern Canada late Friday into Saturday. A potent cold front associated with this storm will move towards the Appalachians by the second half of Friday. (For Wednesday and Thursday, severe thunderstorm activity is probable for the Mississippi Valley and portions of the western Ohio River Valley. I see a marginal setup for severe storms from Central N.Y. into the middle Appalachians. Ev

Quincy

Quincy

 

Virtual Storm Chase

There is a great competition called Virtual Storm Chase that has been given new life (for bragging rights only). This is the same competition that was started over on the old wxchat forums several years ago (mid 2000s). For those that do not know what it is, I have a attached a PDF copy of the rules below. It is a great learning experience for those interested in severe weather forecasting and a great way for even meteorologists to keep sharp. http://virtualstormchase.info The site "appears

thunderman

thunderman

 

Update On Severe Weather Threat Next Week

Not much has changed. It is starting to look as if the warm sector will continue East in active form. Could see a multi day severe weather outbreak from the Plains to the Ohio Valley/dixie alley. People in KS, OK, MO, and AR really need to be paying attention to this. Original blog post on this: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/blog/8/entry-95-early-week-plains-severe-threat/

thunderman

thunderman

 

Early Week Plains Severe Threat

Looks to be a significant severe weather threat early next week. An area of low pressure is expected to develop and move off the Rockies … as usual with upper level energy approaching/crossing the Rockies. Ahead of this system, there will be an extended period of northward return flow off the Gulf of Mexico … setting the stage for a moist and unstable boundary layer as our system moves in around Monday. A dry line will develop across Western parts of Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas. As the dryline

thunderman

thunderman

 

Current Evolution of the QBO and Implications on the Atlantic Hurricane Season

To start, here's the equatorial zonal wind anomalies so far this spring. Can see the -QBO holding on by its thumbs, with the westerlies starting to descend and near 30mb (first days with a + anomaly since July 2011 WOW) The current profile fits the 330 degree phase of my "index" pretty well. Descending westerlies above 30mb, easterlies centered around 70mb, and neutral right around 30mb. The phase I would be keying in on for hurricane season based on average "residence time" is 60 degrees.

OKpowdah

OKpowdah

 

Light to Moderate Snow to Continue Through Into At Least Early Evening Hourse

Light ... to at times moderate ... snow will continue into the evening hours, as the upper level low moves slowly Eastward. Despite the snow, accumulations have been tough to come by thanks to a combination of above freezing temperatures and the late March sun angle. However, as we move closer to sunset, the snow will accumulate easier (much like we saw yesterday evening) and we could see up to another inch I think in some places. Some slick spots could develop as well later this evening on road

thunderman

thunderman

 

Mid-Atlantic Snow forecast For March 24-25 (Initial)

The DC-Baltimore-Philly areas are expected to miss out on the more significant accumulations yet again as bothersome low-level temperatures above freezing and March climo. rear their ugly heads. One of the saving graces with this event is the onset of snow will be overnight, though this did not really help the I-95 corridor and points east during the last event back in the first week of March. Surface temperatures will generally be above freezing in the lower elevations, so these areas will n

Ellinwood

Ellinwood

 

Palm Sunday - Monday (3/24-25/13) Threat

While still being a day 5ish event, it is not to early to start looking at some of the possible implications of various models. At this juncture, we generally have the GFS and the Euro book-ending a possibilities window that includes a cutter to Chicago and a more suppressed system that goes East of Hatteras For the most part been consistently left of the GFS ... with its ensembles a tad to the right of the operational Euro (but no where near the GFS). The 12z GFS Ensembles cut the difference

thunderman

thunderman