This latest easterly QBO period is on track to become the "strongest" episode on record. Below I have plotted the QBO along with an integrated QBO index which very simply sums the monthly QBO across each full easterly period.
So far this current -QBO period has an integrated magnitude of -280.62 ... which falls just short of the 2001 -QBO period with a magnitude of -280.79.
The mean is -191.6 and standard deviation is 48.6.
Data so far for January 2013 suggests the monthly QBO should come in
Very tough call on the southern edges of the contours as sleet and freezing rain make an appearance as far south as northern MD (not including the mountains).
Some locally higher totals of 4-8" are possible, and I put a 4-8" contour area in the spot where I think that is most likely to occur. Ratios should be above 10:1 at least at the start of the snowfall across northern PA before the warmer mid-level air tries to nose in.
Sorry I have been MIA over the last couple of weeks ... I spent the holiday with fiancee in PA (btw, the 12/29 storm was fun!) and then caught some kind of crud/flu that I have been fighting since the first of the year. This upcoming "event" is actually the most I have looked at anything weather-wise since the new year.
Anyways, there are some rumblings of a potential snow or mix event for the Monday night and Tuesday time frame. Precip is expected Monday Night and Tuesday with a secondary wa
Map above is based on reports from various sources, including this board, the National Weather Service and data viewers from across the state sent in.
Scattered snow showers reached portions of western Connecticut by late morning on the 29th. This snow was associated with weakening low pressure over Pennsylvania.
The main storm began to develop east of Virginia during the afternoon.
Steady precipitation overspread the state from southwest to northeast between about 1 and 3 p.m
I did end up bringing the contours further south from DC eastward. Not really anything to add to yesterday's discussion.
Good luck with the snow, everyone. I'm leaving to go up north now where there's 18 inches of snow on the ground.
Another quick-turnaround forecast as the next system looks to bring widespread 1-4" totals to the Mid-Atlantic, with higher totals in the central Appalachians. Marginal boundary layer temperatures and initial surface winds out of the southeast makes finding that 1" boundary a challenge yet again. Luckily, the upper-level temperatures are cooperating more this time around, so if your surface temperature is at or below freezing you'll almost certainly be getting some accumulation. Mixing areas wil
For posterity's sake, here is my final call for snowfall totals for the New England area.
Expect maximum accumulations in the Monadnocks region of southwest NH and in a swath from eastern NH through western and central Maine ... where up to 18" could fall.
Forecast confidence is low as most of the snow falls at the front end of the system before many areas switch over to mixed precipitation and/or rain. Very small changes in temperature at various levels of the atmosphere could lead to significantly different snowfall totals, especially east of the mountains. The northwestern parts of the forecast region could/should stay all snow throughout the event, which roughly matches up with the 8-12+ inch area along and west of the mountains.
Using 00z NCEP (including 20 ensemble members), let's begin by defining the EOFs describing the greatest amount of variance in the ensemble forecasts:
Alright what is this telling us?
First of all, note the asymmetry in the mean/spread ... there is a maximum in the spread over E PA and NJ ... to the west-northwest of the mean low.
EOF1 -- explains 46.6% of the variance -- describes the depth of the low for the cluster of solutions to the NW of the mean ... in general the average SLP across
No major changes to the forecast, though I did decide to go a bit more aggressive with the totals in some areas. The most notable changes were in northern PA and southwestern NY, with an 8-12" contour added as lake-effect off of Lake Erie helps drive up totals. The back edge of the main area of precipitation is expected to change over to snow, but how much of that actually accumulates ahead of the later snow is uncertain.
Localized totals of >12" are possible within the 8-12" contours.
Let's begin with the state of winter right now. Where is it? Recent reports say Russia has found it
In other news, the planetary reconfiguration that is occurring right now. Major ridging burgeoning from the Aleutians to the Bering Strait and right up over the North Pole by Saturday. The effect? Well at 22/00z that's 125kts at the DT crossing the NP toward the western hemisphere.
Clear at this stage the magnitude of nonlinear processes leading to an
Since my forecast maps cover parts or all of several different sub-forums in the eastern US, I've decided to just post my snowfall forecasts on this blog to get more exposure without having to spam all of the different sub-forums with my forecast.
For those of you who don't know, my main focus with snow forecasting is centered around the Mid-Atlantic. The geographical location does not regularly change from storm to storm, and neither do my snowfall contours. You can interpolate snowfall totals
Some non-mets have asked for blogs recently and we're aware there are plenty of members here who are just as informative as a degreed meteorologist. Therefore, we'll allow access to blogs for non-mets by request and allowed on a case-by-case basis. We're stilling figuring exactly how to go about doing this but you can still reserve your place once we get a plan in place. Just PM one of the admins.
Low status/fog has been hanging out all day across some portions of MD, Extreme Northwest VA, and Eastern PA. The result has been a near 20 degree temperature gradient across west-central VA and southeast PA!
Some current temps as of 4PM across the area:
KSHD 67 (High unofficially 69)
KOKV 55 (High unofficially 61)
KIAD 60 (High unofficially 62)
I just want to take a few minutes outline the areas that I will be posting about and to introduce myself as I do not post much in general and rarely really post outside of the Mid Atlantic forum.
I have been a member since the Eastern era of the board and have been tracking the weather as an enthusiast since the early 2000's. I moved to Southeastern PA to go school at Millersville in August 2008 and graduated from there with a B.S. in Meteorology in 2011. I enjoy forecasting in general and es
Welcome mets to the new Blog System offered by American Weather.
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A significant cyclogenesis event in the North Pacific will be the primary catalyst of a pattern change over the next few days.
Let's take a look at the evolution over the Pacific into western North America.
Notice our N Pac storm gets dual jet support and really goes to town over the Aleutians. Wait isn't that where a massive ridge was last week? ... or for that matter the last three months. Well that's one thing that changes. The ridging once over the Aleutians and Bering Straight retrogrades
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