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About Ellinwood

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    Celestia is critical of your posts.
  • Birthday 06/19/1986

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  • Location:
    Germantown, MD
  • Interests
    Storm chasing, severe weather, mesoscale dynamics, web design/development

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  1. That's also the 1km simulated reflectivity, which does include virga. Actual accumulation is a bit after that.
  2. My track record last year was not the best Overdid most events. Feeling a bit better about this one, with a base coat of sorts getting put down before sunrise. Still on the lower end of the confidence scale, though.
  3. Mizzap.
  4. Neat.
  5. Got me a townhouse in Germantown, so I'm back up in the great white north that is upper MoCo. Let the snow begin.
  6. I don't think we'll get storms to pop south of 40N in that time frame. I did however notice the same thing further north into eastern PA. Even southeastern PA could have initiation problems, though.
  7. Went ahead and grabbed some daily rainfall totals before my map resets at midnight.
  8. The closing days of a month typically remembered more for its dryness is doing something a bit different this year. Current modeling favors the northern areas as we close in on the start of the event. Good luck, and may the rainfall be ever in your favor.
  9. I'm gonna have to skip :/ Fiancee had to go out of town unexpectedly for a funeral, so I'm home alone taking care of my dog that is not a fan of thunderstorms. I do not want to imagine what my dog would do if stuck in a crate alone with boomers going on.
  10. Saturday and Sunday (and maybe Monday if it's slow enough?) have some severe potential, but there's a lot of caveats and uncertainties about each day. I'm obviously most interested in Saturday because it probably has the best chance to get something to spin, but all days do carry some level of damaging wind potential. Biggest ? for each day is the storm coverage, but other underlying issues exist as well that vary by day.
  11. I'll plan on arriving around 3:00-3:30
  12. ^^
  13. Heavy shower with no lightning popped out a waterspout on the east side of the Chesapeake... radar from TBWI looks like a small circulation got onshore:
  14. Friday looks alright. Decent setup for isolated wind damage. Probably not that organized. Need as much sun as possible to bump up the MLCAPE.
  15. I'll bring some cash money for the BBQ budget.