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About Ellinwood

  • Birthday 06/19/1986

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  • Location:
    Germantown, MD
  • Interests
    Storm chasing, severe weather, mesoscale dynamics, web design/development

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  1. Finally got some decent DBZ overhead in Germantown, aaaand... it's all sleet.
  2. Started as a rain/sleet mix in Germantown, but we're over to all snow as of 5-10 minutes ago. Still light rates.
  3. I should just remove I-95 eastward off of my map since it never snows there My over/under IMBY is 1.5" because that's what I got with the surprise snow in December and if this can't beat that then I'll be sad.
  4. Final forecast. On the southeast side of the snow, I pulled each contour ever so slightly northwest (which I'm still pessimistic on and almost adjusted it further NW than I did). Biggest changes were on the western side of the Appalachians where I added more snow to eastern OH and western PA.
  5. Surface temperatures are marginal for a good chunk of the area (just above freezing) and much of the event occurs during daylight hours and questionable snow rates. Getting good rates will be key in the more marginal areas. There's also a relatively stout isothermal layer in the lower levels that will likely hurt accumulation in lighter rates. A lot of the accumulation for the 1-3" crew will depend on how heavy the rates are and how long the heavier rates last.
  6. Why are people posting 10:1 maps for this storm it's a complete waste of time and energy to even open it on your browser.
  7. Snow depth maps are precisely my main influences with my forecast for this system, though with some touch-ups because some web sites will under-do snow depth if the rates can overcome the marginal surface temps.
  8. Been awhile... I could see some "boom" areas in the far NW burbs of the I-95 corridor if there's heavy rates late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening, otherwise I'm more pessimistic than optimistic. Lines up fairly well with the NWS at least from Philly southward.
  9. Flip from rain to sleet to snow only took about 15 minutes in Germantown.
  10. Wanted to go full weenie along I-95 with what some of the hi-res are spitting out, but due to the timing and uncertainty with the rates I kept things a bit closer to climo.
  11. A quick update before a full day of watching the kiddo.
  12. Rain/snow mix in southwestern Germantown (mostly snow)... was rain/sleet an hour ago. 35F
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