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About Ellinwood

  • Birthday 06/19/1986

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  • Location:
    Germantown, MD
  • Interests
    Storm chasing, severe weather, mesoscale dynamics, web design/development

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  1. Rain/snow mix in southwestern Germantown (mostly snow)... was rain/sleet an hour ago. 35F
  2. No changes to my forecast. Playing the usual rule of thumb that the deform band ends up more NW than progged.
  3. I like these storms... show up suddenly and no need to track little wiggles for 5 days.
  4. Pre-dawn start and cold low-levels will help, but that warm nose is gonna be a bitch.
  5. I'm pessimistic southeast of I-95. Rain or rain/snow mix early and temps struggling to reach freezing there. Hopefully rates can overcome it.
  6. Nothing too crazy. I think the NWS has a pretty good grasp of things right now. I'm relying mostly on the Sunday front-end thump along+east of I-95.
  7. Snow map. Very complicated setup with lots of caveats, but we seem to be converging on a moderate to major snow event across the Mid-Atlantic. IMO major decider will be coastal low development and resulting QPF for Monday.
  8. Final... I hate how much sleet is progged to get northwest of I-95, but IMBY in Germantown I would think 3-5" of snow/sleet with downside 2" upside 6-7" is a good forecast.
  9. No changes... gradient area near I-95 is boom or bust at this point. Leaning slightly toward bust near I-95, but this isn't worth micro-editing.
  10. "I am altering the gradient. Pray I don't alter it any further." It was difficult because I also lowered my IMBY 6-8" forecast to 4-6", and I was contending with pulling the higher amounts even a tick further north than that. 12z EPS saved it for now, hehe.
  11. Eh. I was too high on amounts regionally for all but like 2 events a couple of years ago, lol.
  12. Updated my snow map... cut down on the total on the eastern gradient (mainly DC up I-95 and through southern and central NJ). Increased totals along the Appalachians.
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