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About Ellinwood

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    Celestia is critical of your posts.
  • Birthday 06/19/1986

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  • Location:
    Germantown, MD
  • Interests
    Storm chasing, severe weather, mesoscale dynamics, web design/development

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  1. My thinking is very much in line with high risk's... I'm hyped in terms of general severe chances, mainly for the northern MD to DC crew. Tornado threat is very limited... mainly up the waterways that can hold a better sustained southerly surface wind. Winds from 700mb down aren't great, but from 500mb up are good. Leaning toward the area not seeing much activity before 5pm, but wouldn't be surprised to see showers and storms popping as early as 2-3pm. Main show being the line of storms in the evening. Was surprised to not see a local ENH risk for DC to southeastern PA... the northern MD and DC crew could/should be the jackpot areas today. We'll see if it can get organized early enough to give parts of NoVA a show as well.
  2. Cloudy skies all day will tend to do that. Mountains might catch a surprise.
  3. SPC likes what it sees today. ...Central Appalachians to Middle Atlantic States... A moist warm sector will develop northward in wake of a warm front that will advance through Virginia into Pennsylvania with gradual surface-based destabilization as early-day clouds/showers clear, although MLCAPE should remain below 1500 J/kg in most areas. Winds aloft will increase with the approach of the shortwave trough supporting increasing vertical shear, which will be conducive for a few supercells. Forecast wind profiles show veering and augmented low-level shear in proximity to the warm front from northern Virginia into southern Pennsylvania. Current indications are that storms should develop over the central Appalachians and generally spread eastward through the afternoon and early evening, although downslope flow may tend to limit storm coverage with southward extent through Virginia. A couple of tornadoes appear possible with storms interacting with the warm front, while isolated damaging wind should otherwise be the main threat.
  4. I got a cheap one from my brother as a gift years ago, and was finally able to put it up. As a weather enthusiast, I would say spend the money on a good one. Anything in the cheaper bracket won't have the desired accuracy.
  5. I decided to go with the tall fescue seed (Scott's), and after a little over a week it began to germinate this past weekend when the weather was just about ideal for it. At about 1-1.5" length now. Going to have to do another round of seeding in a week or so once this first batch has established itself. Neighbor gave up on trying to seed his last year and just mulched it all this spring The grass is going to look so much better once I've got it all in.
  6. Some smaller and larger projects on the list this year... - Replace all electric outlets because the previous owner/contractor decided to paint over all of them. Ugly and a potential fire hazard if/when paint gets inside the sockets. - Replace 6-7 window screens. - Power wash the deck, siding, and fence and stain/seal the deck and fence. - Find a way to add a screen to one of the basement french doors that open to the outside (no windows in the basement, so no way to air it out unless I just keep the door wide open). - Get the fireplace cleaned (contractor)... obviously wasn't done before we bought the house. - Add more of a wall and add a door to the main level floor access to the basement (contractor).
  7. I got a battery-powered motor for my small lawn last fall. Nowadays they're more lightweight than gas push mowers, and the higher capacity batteries will give you a good 25-30+ minutes of run time (and they charge pretty quick). Electric still doesn't have quite the power that gas mowers have, but it's good enough. Just don't go cheap on electric... you certainly get what you pay for.
  8. Current look at the yard, facing east. Trees to the east, row of townhouses to the west. The plants are just there temporarily, as I had to pull them last week in order for the fence to go up. The raised garden area hides tree roots, so I'm not quite sure what to do with that spot. Non-stone area inside the fence is ~12x25 feet. Gonna plan on putting grass in toward the end of the month.
  9. Ah. Still not that great for something that's going to be forced along the cold front... at least IMO it doesn't look like there's enough low-level rotation to overcome the more unidirectional forces to drop a tornado, but I could be wrong.
  10. Not sure where you're seeing curvature on the hodo... I'm seeing pretty unidirectional wind. Only SRH is coming from the speed shear. This should just be a line of heavy rain and embedded storms with gusty winds. Some minimally severe hail in the areas of highest CAPE. The core of the upper-low and surface low are too far removed to the north to give us any sort of decent directional shear in the low-to-mid levels.
  11. That's how weather works. #science #WhatIsAColdFront
  12. Pretty meh south of 40N, IMO. Surface wet-bulbs of 34-35 degrees won't cut it unless there's really good rates for a few hours.
  13. Will do after the fence goes in next week.
  14. Interesting. I'd say the yard gets about 2-3 hours of sunlight per day... with trees bordering the grass to the east and my house to the west, it's no wonder the whole row of houses I'm along struggle with their backyards.