Jump to content


  • Posts

  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by Ellinwood

  1. Rain/snow mix in southwestern Germantown (mostly snow)... was rain/sleet an hour ago. 35F
  2. No changes to my forecast. Playing the usual rule of thumb that the deform band ends up more NW than progged.
  3. I like these storms... show up suddenly and no need to track little wiggles for 5 days.
  4. Pre-dawn start and cold low-levels will help, but that warm nose is gonna be a bitch.
  5. I'm pessimistic southeast of I-95. Rain or rain/snow mix early and temps struggling to reach freezing there. Hopefully rates can overcome it.
  6. Nothing too crazy. I think the NWS has a pretty good grasp of things right now. I'm relying mostly on the Sunday front-end thump along+east of I-95.
  7. Snow map. Very complicated setup with lots of caveats, but we seem to be converging on a moderate to major snow event across the Mid-Atlantic. IMO major decider will be coastal low development and resulting QPF for Monday.
  8. Final... I hate how much sleet is progged to get northwest of I-95, but IMBY in Germantown I would think 3-5" of snow/sleet with downside 2" upside 6-7" is a good forecast.
  9. No changes... gradient area near I-95 is boom or bust at this point. Leaning slightly toward bust near I-95, but this isn't worth micro-editing.
  10. "I am altering the gradient. Pray I don't alter it any further." It was difficult because I also lowered my IMBY 6-8" forecast to 4-6", and I was contending with pulling the higher amounts even a tick further north than that. 12z EPS saved it for now, hehe.
  11. Eh. I was too high on amounts regionally for all but like 2 events a couple of years ago, lol.
  12. Updated my snow map... cut down on the total on the eastern gradient (mainly DC up I-95 and through southern and central NJ). Increased totals along the Appalachians.
  13. Haha you're fast. Initial thoughts... It's like 70% Euro 30% GFS. Respecting the Fall Line locally.
  14. Let the Fall Line do Fall Line things. Don't overthink it.
  15. Wednesday looks pretty legit... people are still suffering from 2019-20 PTSD.
  16. Been looking at places along/near I-81 for buying a house next year, but not being familiar with the housing market in these areas, I'm looking for advice on good up-and-coming or established areas. Looking mainly at the Hagerstown area and near the I-81/I-66 interchange anywhere between Winchester and Strasburg/Front Royal. Wife wants access to the western side of the DC beltway, so NoVA is more of a priority.
  17. I was pinged last week Y'all need some fresh emojis. I should start posting again. Missed all of y'all that aren't regular Twitter peeps.
  18. My thinking is very much in line with high risk's... I'm hyped in terms of general severe chances, mainly for the northern MD to DC crew. Tornado threat is very limited... mainly up the waterways that can hold a better sustained southerly surface wind. Winds from 700mb down aren't great, but from 500mb up are good. Leaning toward the area not seeing much activity before 5pm, but wouldn't be surprised to see showers and storms popping as early as 2-3pm. Main show being the line of storms in the evening. Was surprised to not see a local ENH risk for DC to southeastern PA... the northern MD and DC crew could/should be the jackpot areas today. We'll see if it can get organized early enough to give parts of NoVA a show as well.
  19. Cloudy skies all day will tend to do that. Mountains might catch a surprise.
  20. SPC likes what it sees today. ...Central Appalachians to Middle Atlantic States... A moist warm sector will develop northward in wake of a warm front that will advance through Virginia into Pennsylvania with gradual surface-based destabilization as early-day clouds/showers clear, although MLCAPE should remain below 1500 J/kg in most areas. Winds aloft will increase with the approach of the shortwave trough supporting increasing vertical shear, which will be conducive for a few supercells. Forecast wind profiles show veering and augmented low-level shear in proximity to the warm front from northern Virginia into southern Pennsylvania. Current indications are that storms should develop over the central Appalachians and generally spread eastward through the afternoon and early evening, although downslope flow may tend to limit storm coverage with southward extent through Virginia. A couple of tornadoes appear possible with storms interacting with the warm front, while isolated damaging wind should otherwise be the main threat.
  21. I got a cheap one from my brother as a gift years ago, and was finally able to put it up. As a weather enthusiast, I would say spend the money on a good one. Anything in the cheaper bracket won't have the desired accuracy.
  • Create New...