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Ellinwood

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by Ellinwood

  1. Ellinwood
    Pretty good SPC verification yesterday... they were even under-done over some of the western areas. Storm coverage ended up being more than expected.
  2. Ellinwood
    Cap won yesterday. Less of an issue today despite the lower dews, but given the uncertainty with the placement and coverage of storms, I'm a little surprised to see the 45% from SPC today (though they kept me in a Slight at the 00z update last evening despite it being clear nothing was gonna happen after 00z). I do think whatever storms do form will likely overperform because we haven't had any turnover in the atmosphere since the start of the heatwave. Congrats to whoever gets the storms today (assuming it doesn't cancel your plans). I think we get scattered storm coverage with stuff that comes in off the mountains, but where those end up exactly is my biggest uncertainty.
  3. Ellinwood
    Got meh'd IMBY but I'll take the rain I did get. Interesting that we did manage to get several tor warns in MD today.
  4. Ellinwood
    15/5/2 wind/hail/tor on the 06z Day 1... seems reasonable, but I could see a bump up to 30/5/5 this afternoon (no hatches) once we see how things are actually playing out coverage-wise. More confident with the wind coverage bump up than the tor. Shear's there, but the mid-to-high cloud cover loves messing up our setups.
  5. Ellinwood
    I may have already subscribed and ordered a shirt. Haven't messed around with the app much yet but liking it so far.
  6. Ellinwood
    Missed the D.C. area but certainly verified northwest of I-95.
  7. Ellinwood
    Not sure I'd be using the HRRR much today given it mixes out the low-levels too much and will be too low on dews by several degrees. Meanwhile, latest HRRR for 1pm vs radar:
  8. Ellinwood
    Haha yep. I still think we get Slight-level severe coverage along/NW of I-95 today (even if the SPC keeps it Marginal)... we've been baking since Monday with little to no turnover in the atmosphere and storm coverage looks pretty good today.
  9. Ellinwood
    I'm losing count of the amount of times SPC has put upper MoCo in the Marginal only for 0 storms to appear this year (granted, I haven't expected anything from these setups yet except the one March system). That said, I do think we get a Slight with Wednesday's setup along/northwest of I-95... low-to-mid level shear is subpar but there's good CAPE and DCAPE for some gusty winds along the cold front.
  10. Ellinwood
    Temps got knocked down several degrees IMBY (to lower 60s)... 1-hour temperature change plotted. Some time to recover this afternoon but we'll see.
  11. Ellinwood
    I live near there and got basically the same picture. Good wind-driven rain but no lightning. Clarksburg circulation went over my MIL's apartment but she's okay (nothing to report apparently).
  12. Ellinwood
    Man I didn't realize so many Mid-Atlantic severe peeps are on the Doom-And-Gloom Express (based on last night's posts). Need to reprise my role of hype man for these events.
  13. Ellinwood
    Highly dependent on the setup, but for tomorrow I'm looking for CAPE >500 (with closer to 1000 for the higher-end scenarios). I'd emphasize that this isn't a GO HIDE ALL AFTERNOON scenario so much as you don't want to be caught out and about if/when the storms roll through. The higher-end stuff will probably be pretty localized.
  14. Ellinwood
    I was on the fence about messaging my kid's teacher saying I was gonna get my kid out early (we walk to/from school) so now I'm glad I don't have to make that decision myself
  15. Ellinwood
    I need to post more. the tl;dr is I could care less about the tornado potential since the wind is the big story and I ain't chasing no storms going 50+ mph through this region. Doesn't seem like an "everyone gets hit" setup but the more potent stuff looks like it's gonna hit hard where it hits.
  16. Ellinwood
    Road accumulation is just starting in Germantown. Around 0.5" on grass and elevated surfaces.
  17. Ellinwood
    lol I was just making a post when I saw the notification from this one Didn't deviate from the NWS much with my forecast... just some tweaks here and there. Won't bother going through the caveats because y'all know them, mainly the marginal surface temps and the lack of good rates inland.
  18. Ellinwood
    Got 6" of snow in Germantown, MD before changing over to sleet around 8:45am... about 1-2" less than I wanted to see before the changeover across the region. Snowblower doesn't get used often but am glad I have it. Looking for 1-2" of sleet through this afternoon now. 14F and sleet is silly
  19. Ellinwood
    Been a minute since I semi-regularly lurked a storm thread (mostly because our winters have been junk with respect to snow). Glad to see the forum hasn't changed
  20. Ellinwood
    Made more significant adjustments in the mountains and pulled back totals around the coast and the DMV region a little. Gonna be interesting to see how quickly things change over to sleet, but we all know that leaning earlier vs later is the way to go 90% of the time.
  21. Ellinwood
    Mostly good ratios and strong cold air that we haven't seen ahead of a storm like this in quite some time. Sorry for being vague but I've never been one to write it all out since I'm usually too tired or burned out from work to write it.
  22. Ellinwood
    Initial snow+sleet forecast... main issue will obviously be the mixing that comes in on Sunday, mainly along and east of I-95. Very excited as my kid is 6 and has not seen a 6"+ snow event.
  23. Ellinwood
    Had a little RASN in the morning and 10 minutes of flurries in the afternoon. Would rather have 0" than 1" of bs that I have to shovel with the cold coming in. Got 0.5" yesterday at least, before it all melted.
  24. Ellinwood
    Can't write "what went wrong" until the storm's over Also it's not more of a "what went wrong" as it is uncertainty in the forecast and forecasters choosing which way they wanted to go. If nearly every model shows one solution and then that doesn't even come close to reality, that's when I look into it more.
  25. Ellinwood
    Was hoping the models would bring the PM snow more in line with my track, but looking more like now this will be lower-end/under my forecast in the DMV region. I wasn't really relying on this morning's activity to do much south of the MD/PA border, but would have liked to see at least a coating IMBY by now instead of rain/mix.
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