Ellinwood

[quote name='anthonyweather' timestamp='1356456487'] 4-8" in eastern pa, you also agree that it will be more frozen than not? [/quote] Hard to tell... it'll be a good front-end thump for sure but I don't know how much QPF could come in as rain later on.

Forecast confidence is low as most of the snow falls at the front end of the system before many areas switch over to mixed precipitation and/or rain. Very small changes in temperature at various levels of the atmosphere could lead to significantly different snowfall totals, especially east of the mountains. The northwestern parts of the forecast region could/should stay all snow throughout the event, which roughly matches up with the 8-12+ inch area along and west of the mountains. There will be some lingering snow in the central Appalachians at the end of the event as cold, northwesterly flow takes over.

No major changes to the forecast, though I did decide to go a bit more aggressive with the totals in some areas. The most notable changes were in northern PA and southwestern NY, with an 8-12" contour added as lake-effect off of Lake Erie helps drive up totals. The back edge of the main area of precipitation is expected to change over to snow, but how much of that actually accumulates ahead of the later snow is uncertain. Localized totals of >12" are possible within the 8-12" contours.

This is where I made the base map: [url="http://nationalatlas.gov/mapmaker"]http://nationalatlas.gov/mapmaker[/url] Best thing to do is grab the map in parts and make them separate layers in Photoshop, then draw in the contours below the lines and labels.

Since my forecast maps cover parts or all of several different sub-forums in the eastern US, I've decided to just post my snowfall forecasts on this blog to get more exposure without having to spam all of the different sub-forums with my forecast. For those of you who don't know, my main focus with snow forecasting is centered around the Mid-Atlantic. The geographical location does not regularly change from storm to storm, and neither do my snowfall contours. You can interpolate snowfall totals within the contours (for example, the outer edge of the 2-4" contour is for 2", and in most cases the center of the 2-4" contour is closer to 3-4"). I usually try to issue an initial map and one updated (final) map, though sometimes I like to throw in an a second update. Other times, I might only issue one forecast near the start of the event. No updates are issued once the snow starts to accumulate within the forecast region (except in rare cases when the accumulation starts just before I get home from work). ----- Most if not all of the snow with this disturbance will accumulate well behind the cold front, with lake-effect snow bringing some respectable totals to western PA and WV. Most of the snow will fall Friday morning through Saturday afternoon. Low-level temperatures will limit accumulations across central and eastern PA. South and east of the 1" line could see snow in the air Friday, with little to no accumulation expected.

Temperature anomalies July 6, 2011 through July 5, 2012: That's just nuts... not just for our region, but for North America.

April 2012: Extreme boredom.

I do not.

No prob. I don't know why anyone would waste their time and money getting a met. degree if they didn't plan on getting a job within the field. I think vortmax112 nailed it.

It has been brought up... more than once... including in this thread.

Thanks for pulling the data! It was also interesting (though unsurprising) to note that in Atmos. Sci. and Meteorology, the number of males to females is 4:1. The only physical science with a bigger ratio is physics, which is 82% male.

Neither the article nor the link to the data in the article specify whether the employment is within the actual field of study or not... I would venture a guess that it applies to any employment and not just within the field.

Chasers caught the beginning of the tornado: WARNING: NSFW language

This. I haven't seen anything indicative of an EF-5 yet... should be able to get some quick shots in this morning before the next storm rolls through.

Can we get this OP in the Mid-Atlantic? We desperately need it Great set of rules, and from what I hear/see you have been using it well. If only I was still in Raleigh...

No love for the UAlbs?

Double-check the course requirements to do an Atmos/Comp Sci double major... not sure about Lyndon State, but in SUNY Albany I was a year in before I decided to try the same thing... would have had to stay in school for 4.5-5 years to accomplish the double-major at that point. As it is, I had to take a Comp Sci class in the summer to make up for the time I lost by not doing Comp Sci freshman year. If you do want to go into the world of broadcast, I would suggest taking at least one broadcast/journalism class that works on vocal training and composure for when you're in front of the camera.

Indeed. Avoid Kean at all costs!

inb4lock This thread... had it's moments. Unfortunately, it has crashed, burned, the fire has gone out, and plants have started to grow over the ruins.

Like Isohume said... wow. I'm starting to really question Kean at a B.S. in Atmos. program, as its major requirements seem lax compared to the other colleges I went to and looked at.

I just went for the one semester of grad school before I got a job But yeah it's a pretty good school for undergrads and grads alike, and it's great for most kinds of meteorology. As for all of the people who say "I like it as a hobby and I'm glad it's not my job" ... I laugh. If you love meteorology and forecasting it will never get tiring. I was able to get something very close to my dream job (I need to do more severe weather forecasting! ) from an entry level position! Even if I was getting paid horribly, I wouldn't care because I love my job and it doesn't really feel like work at all.

Yeah, the paid positions at SUNY Albany went from 12 down to 6 for fall 2009. Don't know what it was this year. 3.5 should be more than enough. I applied to four schools in total (NC State, SUNY Albany, Penn State and Univerisity of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign) and only got accepted to NC State (without funding no less!). It was a tough year for met majors. Thanks for sharing the info, catocin. Networking does help a lot as well if you can talk to the right people

The grad classes can be easier or harder, depending on what kind of study habits and mental retention you have. Most of it is old stuff rehashed and more deeply investigated. The classes you take can also make a big difference, which are tailored to which part of meteorology you want to concentrate in. What kind of GPA got you into your grad. program, if you don't mind me asking? I only ask because I had a 3.31 GPA (and something like 28 or 29 GRE), and I struggled getting into grad school. Of course, part of it was the fact that last year was one of the hardest years to try to get into grad school. When I applied in fall 2009, most colleges had cut back on the number of paid graduates. For instance, SUNY Albany cut their incoming RA/TA positions in half, and I was 2nd in line on the waiting list, so I got screwed over there Any other year before that and I would have gotten in.

I also have to LOL at all of the C/D grade discussion going on... I would have abandoned ship if I was getting those kind of grades in calc. The last two years of your met degree involves quite a few advanced calc-based atmos courses, so you'd better know how to do it! Sure, you use very little of it (if any at all) once you're out forecasting, but that doesn't mean you're allowed to walk away with Cs and Ds in core classes and expect to be favored in the job market. EDIT: Also, it CERTAINLY won't fly if you go on to grad school (if you can even get in with those grades). Most colleges require that you maintain a B average in your graduate courses... at least in atmos.

There is a LOT more to private forecasting other than just predicting the temperature and precipitation, etc. weather elements out to 7-10 days. There's a lot of value in extended range forecasting, as well as client-specific forecasts that are tailored to their needs, whether it be power, trading, production, risk and safely, agricultural or anything else that the clients need a weather forecast for (both nationally and globally). Imagine if the thousands of companies that receive specific discussions and get daily client calls all decided to call the NWS for more information.