Ellinwood
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Everything posted by Ellinwood
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"I am altering the gradient. Pray I don't alter it any further." It was difficult because I also lowered my IMBY 6-8" forecast to 4-6", and I was contending with pulling the higher amounts even a tick further north than that. 12z EPS saved it for now, hehe.
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Eh. I was too high on amounts regionally for all but like 2 events a couple of years ago, lol.
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Updated my snow map... cut down on the total on the eastern gradient (mainly DC up I-95 and through southern and central NJ). Increased totals along the Appalachians.
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Haha you're fast. Initial thoughts... It's like 70% Euro 30% GFS. Respecting the Fall Line locally.
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Let the Fall Line do Fall Line things. Don't overthink it.
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Wednesday looks pretty legit... people are still suffering from 2019-20 PTSD.
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Been looking at places along/near I-81 for buying a house next year, but not being familiar with the housing market in these areas, I'm looking for advice on good up-and-coming or established areas. Looking mainly at the Hagerstown area and near the I-81/I-66 interchange anywhere between Winchester and Strasburg/Front Royal. Wife wants access to the western side of the DC beltway, so NoVA is more of a priority.
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I was pinged last week Y'all need some fresh emojis. I should start posting again. Missed all of y'all that aren't regular Twitter peeps.
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My thinking is very much in line with high risk's... I'm hyped in terms of general severe chances, mainly for the northern MD to DC crew. Tornado threat is very limited... mainly up the waterways that can hold a better sustained southerly surface wind. Winds from 700mb down aren't great, but from 500mb up are good. Leaning toward the area not seeing much activity before 5pm, but wouldn't be surprised to see showers and storms popping as early as 2-3pm. Main show being the line of storms in the evening. Was surprised to not see a local ENH risk for DC to southeastern PA... the northern MD and DC crew could/should be the jackpot areas today. We'll see if it can get organized early enough to give parts of NoVA a show as well.
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Cloudy skies all day will tend to do that. Mountains might catch a surprise.
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SPC likes what it sees today. ...Central Appalachians to Middle Atlantic States... A moist warm sector will develop northward in wake of a warm front that will advance through Virginia into Pennsylvania with gradual surface-based destabilization as early-day clouds/showers clear, although MLCAPE should remain below 1500 J/kg in most areas. Winds aloft will increase with the approach of the shortwave trough supporting increasing vertical shear, which will be conducive for a few supercells. Forecast wind profiles show veering and augmented low-level shear in proximity to the warm front from northern Virginia into southern Pennsylvania. Current indications are that storms should develop over the central Appalachians and generally spread eastward through the afternoon and early evening, although downslope flow may tend to limit storm coverage with southward extent through Virginia. A couple of tornadoes appear possible with storms interacting with the warm front, while isolated damaging wind should otherwise be the main threat.
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RIP
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I got a cheap one from my brother as a gift years ago, and was finally able to put it up. As a weather enthusiast, I would say spend the money on a good one. Anything in the cheaper bracket won't have the desired accuracy.
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I decided to go with the tall fescue seed (Scott's), and after a little over a week it began to germinate this past weekend when the weather was just about ideal for it. At about 1-1.5" length now. Going to have to do another round of seeding in a week or so once this first batch has established itself. Neighbor gave up on trying to seed his last year and just mulched it all this spring The grass is going to look so much better once I've got it all in.
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Some smaller and larger projects on the list this year... - Replace all electric outlets because the previous owner/contractor decided to paint over all of them. Ugly and a potential fire hazard if/when paint gets inside the sockets. - Replace 6-7 window screens. - Power wash the deck, siding, and fence and stain/seal the deck and fence. - Find a way to add a screen to one of the basement french doors that open to the outside (no windows in the basement, so no way to air it out unless I just keep the door wide open). - Get the fireplace cleaned (contractor)... obviously wasn't done before we bought the house. - Add more of a wall and add a door to the main level floor access to the basement (contractor).
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Current look at the yard, facing east. Trees to the east, row of townhouses to the west. The plants are just there temporarily, as I had to pull them last week in order for the fence to go up. The raised garden area hides tree roots, so I'm not quite sure what to do with that spot. Non-stone area inside the fence is ~12x25 feet. Gonna plan on putting grass in toward the end of the month.
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Ah. Still not that great for something that's going to be forced along the cold front... at least IMO it doesn't look like there's enough low-level rotation to overcome the more unidirectional forces to drop a tornado, but I could be wrong.
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Not sure where you're seeing curvature on the hodo... I'm seeing pretty unidirectional wind. Only SRH is coming from the speed shear. This should just be a line of heavy rain and embedded storms with gusty winds. Some minimally severe hail in the areas of highest CAPE. The core of the upper-low and surface low are too far removed to the north to give us any sort of decent directional shear in the low-to-mid levels.
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Will do after the fence goes in next week.
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Interesting. I'd say the yard gets about 2-3 hours of sunlight per day... with trees bordering the grass to the east and my house to the west, it's no wonder the whole row of houses I'm along struggle with their backyards.
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Thanks for the tips. I would prefer all/mostly grass since I have a dog (soon to be 2) that I want to give maximum yard space to. The area is about 12×16 feet. We have the same amount of space within the fence area that is stone under a deck. Can't really do fertilizer because the yard drains directly into a lake, but I can look at rototilling in some new dirt.
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I've been waiting for this thread... I'm putting in a fence in my backyard, which is sadly mostly dirt and moss with a little bit of grass. Facing NE and with trees above, I need a good shady grass seed solution. Any tips would be greatly appreciated. My neighbor's lawn is basically all dirt and it hurts my soul.
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Parking garages are your best bet. Tried several locally from Rockville to Gaithersburg... the Target one near Twinbrook/355 isn't that great, but works in a pinch. In Gaithersburg, the one in Old Town off of W Diamond Ave/355 is pretty good. Another new parking garage popped up in the new development in Gaithersburg next to the Harris Teeter which also has a good view. Good areas to go to if you're just looking for a good local view and don't want to keep driving and tracking the storms as they move. Other than that, the farm areas west off I-270 from Poolesville northward aren't too bad if you're looking to stay more local. And actually, the area southwest of Frederick is a decent spot, too. Forgot that area in my original post.
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North of I-70 and east of Rt. 15 in MD up to York and Lancaster, PA is the best for chasing to the north. I-81 corridor from Winchester, VA up to Harrisburg, PA is also decent, but hard to move east unless you're in the right spot. South of D.C. is hit or miss... generally want to be along and east of I-95, with the best area in there probably running between Emporia, VA (which has a Bojangles, BTW... mmmm) and Fayetteville, NC. Very tricky with the waterways once you start getting closer to the coast in VA/NC. Delmarva Peninsula is also a decent play... just mind the mosquito population if you end up near the coastal areas.
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Easy come, easy go.
