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December 13-14th Clipper Snowfall Map and Discussion

Thursday morning could bring our first snow fall accumulation of the season for Cape Cod and the Islands, a shortwave rounding the base of the H5 trough this evening will bring a shot of arctic air to the region where highs tomorrow and the rest of the work week will remain below freezing.  We now have a very potent vorticity max disturbance in the northern jet stream flow that will amplify some as it rounds the base of the somewhat negatively tilted trough over the Northeastern US.  Snow will b

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Mid Week Potential Nor'easter Scenarios

There are two camps for the scenarios on the midweek storm potential for December 12-14th 2017.  I will illustrate them below.  Scenario One is a full blown Blizzard from NYC to BOS to Bangor, ME.  Scenario Two favors the Great Lakes and NNE with the heaviest snows.  Which one happens will be determined by jet dynamics, phase potential, and baroclinic zone potential placement as well as track of clipper and arctic shortwave troughs in the flow.  Scenarios are not forecasts, they are there to sho

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**00z Model update**

00z models show some moving southeastward with the snow threat this weekend and the GFS and CMC bring a coastal nor'easter threat and clipper threat to the Northeast next week, I will have an update after I wake up in the morning and then again after the 12z runs.

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**12z Model Update for storm this weekend**

Most of the afternoon and late morning model guidance has trended towards a much larger and more severe event with the exception being the GFS, while the GFS produces over 8" of snow for the Cape, it also is weaker with the storm for Saturday.  We are less than 72 hours away from the first impacts of this winter storm, mix with rain is possible on the MA coastline, including the islands of Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard.  Winter storm watches could be issued as soon as Thursday afternoon from T

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**12z Model Update for storm this weekend**

Most of the afternoon and late morning model guidance has trended towards a much larger and more severe event with the exception being the GFS, while the GFS produces over 8" of snow for the Cape, it also is weaker with the storm for Saturday.  We are less than 72 hours away from the first impacts of this winter storm, mix with rain is possible on the MA coastline, including the islands of Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard.  Winter storm watches could be issued as soon as Thursday afternoon from T

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Nor'easter Alert **

While I am sounding the alarm currently for preparations, I am not sold on the current solution in the model consensus.  WE have explosive dynamics coming into play that the models are overlooking currently.  First we have arctic air spilling over the Gulf Stream gradient, that is so useful for nor'easters.  Second we have an arctic jet disturbance that is so amplified and caught in a very amplified flow the trough will move into a negative tilted state.  This will allow extreme cyclogenesis to

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Comparing the Last Two GFS runs for Fantasy storm 2

These images on top are from the 18z GFS run tonight, from hours 300-348, they show the evolution of our southern stream disturbance phasing with the large northern stream long wave trough, acting as at least a double phased jet structured storm if not three jets with the arctic jet also getting involved.  Only triple phased streams allow a 940mb surface low to develop over DE ME.  Could a storm of this magnitude evolve in this pattern for mid month?  Absolutely, but how accurate is the model? 

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Pattern Change towards arctic cold and snow returns for the first time this year

As a weather weenie, what separates our love for the weather from most people on this Earth?  What triggers our emotional senses when a snowstorm doesn't go our way?  What do we know of ourselves that makes us love the snow?  Simply put, it is our passion.  We love it as much as the next person loves candy, or his or her Boyfriend or girlfriend.  We love the weather because we are passionate about it as much as we are curious when it doesn't follow our projections.  So why tell you this?  Becaus

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First Cape Cod MA snow? - After December 4th??????

The forecast for snow and cold looks dim the next 10 days, however beyond that time period, looks to the first real chance at a snowy and cold regime over New England and at least as far south as the 38N latitude line.  Anyone south of that latitude needs to wait until further into January time frame, but for those of us north of that latitude, the pattern change is being seen by most of the guidance after day 7-9 time frame, it looks like after December 4th an arctic front swings through the No

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Dawn Awakening: End of the World

If you want to help with writing a movie script about the end of the world you can help me out, just add your email address I will email you a copy of the character list and the start to my new movie script I am writing.  SO I can use anyone with experience or with the love to write and who is dedicated to writing a masterpiece of art.  Thanks!   James Warren Nichols Productions

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A New England Thanksgiving Snowstorm?

Cape Cod has not had a real snowstorm on Thanksgiving since my birth year, 28 years ago on Thanksgiving.  I was supposed to be baptized in the Roman Catholic Church a few months after my birth, which happened to be Thanksgiving week.  However, we had a great snowstorm that dumped almost a foot and a half of snow.  My parents have pictures they showed us growing up.  I have always wanted a white Thanksgiving and Christmas in the same year, wouldn't that be fascinating if this was the year?  Troub

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