Blogs

 

"Blizzard of the Century"

Hello folks, I am writing to you guys because its fun and a bit of an exercise short story for when I try to write short stories and get published in the future.  This practice short story is about a Blizzard of the Century deal where a catastrophic nor'easter meets the NE CONUS and the MW.  A storm as strong as the Greenland storms in the winter time.  A low as low as 925.4mb a category five hurricane pressure.  What would happen if a low bombed out to 925.4mb southeast of Nantucket, MA, h

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USCAPEWEATHERAF

 

A microburst potential exists on Tuesday morning as a screaming Low Level Jet with hurricane force winds possible for Cape Cod if the surface low travels over the top of the area.

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USCAPEWEATHERAF

 

Could GOM Low become a hurricane?

Models are not crazy about the tropics right now but we have two areas of interest growing in the Tropical Atlantic as I write this blog.  First area of concern is close to home, in what we call a homegrown threat, an area of thunderstorms grew into an area of low pressure earlier this afternoon and is growing with thunderstorm activity.  It developed from a leftover frontal boundary currently racing off to the Northeast over the western Atlantic Ocean.  TS Emily grew from the same front yesterd

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USCAPEWEATHERAF

 

New Short Story

The title is "A Wild Weekend to remember, a love story" there will be a continuation of Marie and Walter's weekend in the second short story and then a continuation of the story.   James Warren Nichols, written by A couple, a love story.docx

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USCAPEWEATHERAF

 

Massive Nor'easter Forecast Snow Map and Wind Map

A major nor'easter/blizzard is imminent.  Blizzard of 2017 is on its way.  The northern piece of energy has made a US landfall over NW US at 18z yesterday afternoon or evening and this is the energy that we have been waiting for a sampling of and now that we got models adjusted stronger with the southern vort max  and northern vort max.  Now there are three jet streams involved.  The northern jet stream (AKA Arctic jet stream), southern stream (Pacific Jet) and the sub-tropical jet which situate

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USCAPEWEATHERAF

 

Massive Nor'easter expected Monday through Wednesday for the Northeast

March 11th 2017 605pm entry: Very cold air mass overhead the Northeastern US tonight.  temperatures for Sunday morning lows are around 10-12F over the Cape.  Forecasted temperatures won't break 25 the next two days Sunday and Monday.  This arctic air mass will be the reason we can expect a snowstorm to occur some time Monday night through Wednesday morning depending upon if the storm slows down at all, right now the 12z and 18z runs today show a progressive but easterly track with less phas

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USCAPEWEATHERAF

 

Closing Out April With A Bang? (severe)

April is seen as a transition month during the severe weather season, as the frequency of tornadoes typically picks up rather quickly through the month. Despite what the calendar has to say, tornado activity has been fairly lackluster so far this month. In fact, after moving well above the average to-date tornado count in late February, the U.S. has steadily been losing ground. As it stands now, through April 18, the U.S. is near average this year for tornadoes, but with a relatively quiet rest

Quincy

Quincy

 

Arkansas Severe Threat: Sunday, March 13

A localized threat of severe thunderstorms, including possible tornadoes, targets Arkansas Sunday afternoon into the evening hours. A compact shortwave trough approaches from Oklahoma during the afternoon, with a modestly warm, moist flow from the south to southeast streaming up the lower Mississippi Valley.   Computer forecast models have been quite consistent with this general threat for quite some time and now that Sunday is approaching, some high resolution, short-term guidance has been re

Quincy

Quincy

 

What is the Supercell Composite Parameter?

Multiple variables are important to consider when it comes to supercell thunderstorm development. The Supercell Composite Parameter (SCP) was created to factor three important ingredients to determine how favorable an environment is to produce supercells. SCP focuses on instability, wind shear and helicity (potential for updraft rotation). SCP is a parameter that starts at zero and becomes higher as there is better overlap of parameters to favor the formation of supercells. For example, an SCP o

Quincy

Quincy

 

A Casual Look at the Rest of March

A pattern change is soon underway that will leave much of the U.S., especially the eastern two thirds, feeling spring fever. Unlike patterns in recent years, a prevalent ridge of high pressure off or near the East Coast (“Southeast ridge”) will maintain generally at or above average temperatures for the region. The only exception may be parts of the Northeast, where some backdoor cold fronts could keep temperatures cooler. To the west, troughing across the West Coast should help keep a much-need

Quincy

Quincy

 

Connecticut Snowfall Totals: Feb. 5, 2016

Here is a snowfall map using reports from various sources. Many of the reports came from this forum and the National Weather Service. Only social media reports that passed through quality control were considered. All reports gathered were carefully considered and compared before being included.   Spotty light rain impacted portions of Connecticut on February 4th as a frontal boundary slowly advanced east through the area. As the front became nearly stationary near the coast, a wave of low pres

Quincy

Quincy

 

Tornado Outbreak Expected Tuesday, Feb. 2

A tornado outbreak appears likely on Tuesday into Tuesday night across portions of Alabama, Mississippi and Tennessee. Over a broad area from the lower Mississippi Valley to the Tennessee and lower Ohio valleys, scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop Tuesday afternoon, continuing into Tuesday evening. The threat will shift east overnight, gradually lessening, especially after midnight. The setup looks favorable for several tornadoes, including at least one or two strong tornadoes

Quincy

Quincy

 

Tuesday Tornado Threat – Sunday PM Update

A tornado threat is still being closely monitored for Tuesday, as computer model forecasts and trends have been fairly consistent with the potential for severe weather on February 2nd for quite some time. There really are no major changes from the previous forecast, but there are still a few question marks that need to be resolved. Some new high resolution model guidance that came out Sunday night suggested that the threat may be leaning towards a higher impact event than a lower impact one.  

Quincy

Quincy

 

Tornado Threat for Tuesday, Feb. 2nd

The threat for severe thunderstorms, including tornadoes, continues for Tuesday. The area of focus is the lower Mississippi Valley into portions of the Tennessee Valley and lower Ohio Valley. Nothing significant has changed from the computer models, suggesting that a severe weather event is still probable Tuesday into Tuesday night with at least a few tornadoes possible. There are still details to nail down, but at least a few key ingredients are in place for tornadoes across the region.   Thi

Quincy

Quincy

 

Groundhog Day Severe Threat: 1st Thoughts

A notable threat of severe thunderstorm activity in early February has been showing up in the models for several days now. As the event gets closer, confidence is increasing that a setup favorable for severe weather is likely to occur. However, there still are a lot of details left to be nailed down. The broad pattern involves a vigorous trough in the jet stream digging across the Four Corners region on Monday, February 1st and swinging east to northeast across the United States into Groundhog D

Quincy

Quincy

 

Connecticut Snowfall Totals: Jan. 23-24, 2016

Here is a snowfall map using reports from various sources. Many of the reports came from this forum and the National Weather Service. Only social media reports that passed through quality control were considered. All reports gathered were carefully considered and compared before being included.   Snow reached southern Connecticut during the predawn hours on January 23rd. The snow gradually moved inland, dropping the most persistent bands of moderate to heavy snow on an axis from Fairfield Coun

Quincy

Quincy