Kendall Smith

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  1. Surface temperatures in the Deep South, Northeast, and the Southeast will lie between the low 60s to low 40s. Temperatures in the lower troposphere will lie in the high 50s to low 30s tomorrow. Colder temperatures will lie in the high single digits anf high teens at 850mb. This pressure level plays an important role in weather forecasting. Low level stratiform clouds will form over portions of the upper MI valley where elevated snow will occur. Also moisture content in this atmosphere will be moderate. This means that moisture at different levels will become sufficent enough for possible rain and snow showers to form in these layers, depending on temperature and vapor profiles. Temperatures in the Deep South will contain slightly higher temperatures and moisture dewpoints which will allow for rain showers to occur. This portion of the United States will contain a warmer and moister airmass which will collide with the cold drier airmass in the upper valleys, leading to heavy snow shower and thunderstoms at the same time. Light to moderate snow will extend across the Great Lakes to some portions of the northeast. Meanwhile light to very heavy rain will move across the deep south, northeast, and parts of the southwest between tomorrow and friday. Slight steep laspe rates could lead to the potential of severe weather. Moderate CAPE will be present in parts of the southern plains where more unstable air will occur.
  2. A large winter weather system is expected to develop in the Northwest. This system will move east over the southern plains and the Rockies. Widespread snow and total accumalations will occur in these areas. Not only will there be snow produced by this system, a mix of rain and sleet will also form by Wednesday and Thursday, according to the precipitation model. This system will also be capable of producing very strong winds which will lead to blizzard conditions. A sharp cold-stationary frontal boundary will create very cold temperatures which will lead to dry powdery snow to bulid up on the surface. These temperature will drop below freezing(< 32.0F) near the surface. Temps in the upper troposphere will also be below freezing including in the 850mb range, but slightly mild. This may lead to rain and sleet as I mentioned earlier in this paragraph. Lift will be present along these front where both warm and cold air masses violently crash into on another and will release a huge amount of kinetic energy which was origanally stored. This is known as Available potential energy (short for APE). A strong shortwave upper-mid level trough will move across the Northwest states, Rockies, central plains, upper Midwest and into the applilations during this mid-late week. Winter storms along this trough will most like intensify as this area of deep low pressure strengthens. Barometric pressure will rapidly drop within the trough itself leading to this intense system. By early weekend, this winter weather system may weaken as energy slows down. The trough itself will also lose strength as it curls into a weaker low pressure system. Remnants of mix rain and snow will last for a short period.