Simply, forecasting the weather is never perfect. In fact, the unpredictable nature of the weather is what fascinates those of us, who love the weather. The extremes, the puzzles that nature provides. What does allow a storm like Juno, NEMO, JONAS, or even Neptune form and impact us with such tremendous ferocity, I personally still put the Blizzard of 2005 ahead of JUNO, we received 35" of snow in my front yard from that storm. Now what I want to discuss with the viewers is simply the overall synoptic landscape of the weather patterns evolving next week. Right now the Saturday storm looks definite, and I would say we are at the 65% threshold that Cape Cod and SNE will receive a flooding rainstorm. The phase of cold air and the sub-tropical moisture connection is lacking and therefore not a cause for concern. The storm on Tuesday looks like at least a 55% probability for precipitation, question becomes, eventual track of the system. Now, there is a caveat next week that could change the outcome of the Tuesday storm, or become a storm on its own. A large piece of the Polar Vortex that moves south very slowly I might add, out of northern Canada and the Arctic Circle, which is why I know the arctic jet is present. The 12z NAM and GFS have slightly altering scenarios at 84 hours, and that is as far as the NAM goes, so any further is pointless. At 84 hours, the NAM is weaker and less amplified in the arctic jet over central/southern Canada. The GFS is actually more amplified, but the southern energy is too far ahead of the arctic shortwave to have much of a chance to phase. EURO is showing this energy as well, but the models are at odds at location and intensity of the shortwave and how it influences our phantom coastal around 100-120 hours out at this time. Still a lot of details to try and iron out which brings us to the biggest potential of the season to date around the first few days of Christmas week. Around the December 22-25th period, models have been hinting at a potential monster coastal nor'easter developing. The details and the impact that it will happen have yet to be determined. We have a lot of time left before that is even discussed more than at random at this time. So for the timeline I have written below, our certainty is this weekend, this late afternoon into Saturday, a major rainstorm, BUF could see a foot of snow. The further out in time, the more uncertain we are. Thanks for reading.
1.) Friday/Saturday December 13-14th, 2019 - rainstorm
2.) Monday evening/Tuesday morning December 16-17th, 2019 - mixed precipitation event, mainly rain for Cape Cod
3.) Wednesday potential coastal storm, not given yet, potential impacts snow and wind
4.) Following Monday into Wednesday December 23-25th, 2019 - Super Storm type nor'easter, potential for all impacts.