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Pattern is ugly, but begs to differ in latest models


USCAPEWEATHERAF

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Huge potential and yet very far away from happening.  We have a pattern characterized by a building +PNA, a budding -AO and a substantial -NAO block like pattern.  One issue in the pattern is the strongest PV like low is over the Canadian Maritimes near Nova Scotia and New Foundland, Canada.  This entity is causing a massive southern dislodge of a streak called confluence.  Confluence is the property of the atmosphere where the jets are coming together, like convergence.  This supports a strong area of surface high pressure, since convergence at mid to upper levels promotes sinking air to the surface, while divergence promote lift i.e. precipitation and moisture.  What we have hear are three systems influencing one another and mucking the other's potential.  We have an arctic jet vorticity maximum rounding the western circulation of the PV (50/50 low) into Northern and Central New England by 3 1/2 days out.  Models also have multiple southern stream disturbances over the Central Plains.  Now with several energetic systems in play, there is the question of timing and phasing.  Again, we will not know until within 18-24 hours from onset of precipitation.  Again, a lot to process.  

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