JoMo

Oh well, at least the Chiefs game will be in the snow!

And Springfield tossed me in the WWA an hour ago for an amazing dusting to 1" of snow and ice up to 1 tenth.

Another small south shift on the 18z NAM. (you all know this is going to fail, right? It is the NAM after all.....)

It's a beautiful day here today. 32 degrees with patchy drizzle. Getting ready for the Army/Navy game. Looks like it's 40 there with drizzle.

12z Euro with a small bump south as well. Got to get me some mood flakes!

And 12z GFS nudged things a bit back south as well.

12z ICON came back south a bit. Winter weather advisories up for KS/MO

12z NAM is going to have a farther south look. Strange how different it is from the 00z. EDIT: Looks like the system strengthens and takes on a neutral to almost neg tilt. EDIT2: Hmm ok:

Yeah the Pacific screws things up. It doesn't look like something that's going to stick around all winter though. Edit: I find it funny that all the "experts" are usually wrong. I remember when "experts" were talking about how cold it was going to be the 2nd half of Dec, whoops that didn't happen. I remember when "experts" were talking about the PV breaking down, whoops that didn't happen. It's just the same old thing based on what the models are showing at the time. Nobody really has any idea outside of a week ahead of time, including sophisticated super computers.

12z Euro did shift back south a bit. Looks more like a rain/freezing drizzle/flurries situation around my area. EDIT: Long range looks incredibly boring and warm as Pacific air floods the US.

Ohhh Canada.. went north as well.

We gotta get something because we're in for a mild and boring stretch after that system.

Joplin/Springfield in the bullseye of "6-7"

Indeed, also, we don't want this to be a strong system as that will simply give us all rain. Instead, this wave needs to be pretty flat/weak.

12z Canadian is going to be farther south with the snow.

00z GFS looking to stick pretty close to it's 18z solution on the first storm. EDIT: 00z GEM is a hair farther north

The awful looking ones are still here: http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewallmref.html

Well the GFS has a bias of scouring out cold air too quickly, but it's really going to come down to the orientation of the trough which won't be known for a few more days. Many more model runs to watch.

But it comes back with a stronger band later on. I dig. But it's a really precarious situation. Nice "4" inch snowfall for Joplin and Tulsa.

Based on a quick low-res look at the 12z GFS Ensembles. I wouldn't count out anything wrt the 15th-17thish system.

Such great weather porn! Back to reality, and the 12z canadian has a bit less snow and a sharper cutoff a bit farther north than the 00z run.

Energy still digging in the SW, going to be a massive snow and ice storm on the 12z GFS after 228.

Slight difference from the 06z GFS run, keep in mind this is 6 hours later is all... lol From this:

Ah yes, the 12z GFS with the heart crushing NW trend of a different trough orientation right on time.

The overnight runs were decent and in the right direction.