JoMo

12z ICON came back south a bit. Winter weather advisories up for KS/MO

12z NAM is going to have a farther south look. Strange how different it is from the 00z. EDIT: Looks like the system strengthens and takes on a neutral to almost neg tilt. EDIT2: Hmm ok:

Yeah the Pacific screws things up. It doesn't look like something that's going to stick around all winter though. Edit: I find it funny that all the "experts" are usually wrong. I remember when "experts" were talking about how cold it was going to be the 2nd half of Dec, whoops that didn't happen. I remember when "experts" were talking about the PV breaking down, whoops that didn't happen. It's just the same old thing based on what the models are showing at the time. Nobody really has any idea outside of a week ahead of time, including sophisticated super computers.

12z Euro did shift back south a bit. Looks more like a rain/freezing drizzle/flurries situation around my area. EDIT: Long range looks incredibly boring and warm as Pacific air floods the US.

Ohhh Canada.. went north as well.

We gotta get something because we're in for a mild and boring stretch after that system.

Joplin/Springfield in the bullseye of "6-7"

Indeed, also, we don't want this to be a strong system as that will simply give us all rain. Instead, this wave needs to be pretty flat/weak.

12z Canadian is going to be farther south with the snow.

00z GFS looking to stick pretty close to it's 18z solution on the first storm. EDIT: 00z GEM is a hair farther north

The awful looking ones are still here: http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewallmref.html

Well the GFS has a bias of scouring out cold air too quickly, but it's really going to come down to the orientation of the trough which won't be known for a few more days. Many more model runs to watch.

But it comes back with a stronger band later on. I dig. But it's a really precarious situation. Nice "4" inch snowfall for Joplin and Tulsa.

Based on a quick low-res look at the 12z GFS Ensembles. I wouldn't count out anything wrt the 15th-17thish system.

Such great weather porn! Back to reality, and the 12z canadian has a bit less snow and a sharper cutoff a bit farther north than the 00z run.

Energy still digging in the SW, going to be a massive snow and ice storm on the 12z GFS after 228.

Slight difference from the 06z GFS run, keep in mind this is 6 hours later is all... lol From this:

Ah yes, the 12z GFS with the heart crushing NW trend of a different trough orientation right on time.

The overnight runs were decent and in the right direction.

Yeah the 12z Euro OP was a little different due to some modeled changes. Mainly a stronger initial system around like the 14th pulling down colder air. The issue is that the flow is just too fast and nothing is amplifying. So instead of getting a low forming, you just get positive trough coming out of the 4 corners region.

The GFS has been running too cold with temps lately. So I wouldn't be shocked to see a northward movement in the snowfall chances with the system around the 15th-17th. CANADA EH?

If only...

Some post frontal snow showers in the mountains of Arkansas? Hmm

Yeah, there's split flow, and models will have trouble resolving it and will probably change a lot. It looks like it will at least be more exciting with colder air around.

Looks positive tilted and too far north for most of us though.