JoMo

hehehe. Christmas morning just to see how much it changes:

1. Computer models can give an idea of any threat in the area. The eventual track and what happens isn't known that far out though. I mean, there's still a storm in the area, it's just not going as predicted by earlier model runs. 2. The NAM is trash. It's always been trash. 3. Interesting point. 4. lol 5. Winter weather in the south is very reliant on everything going right. The timing of everything has to be more perfect than points farther north. Not having one ingredient there, or one thing timed right means no snow. 6. I didn't take this one to heart quite as much, probably due to being burned in the past, plus I've already seen snow before Christmas so there wasn't the panic to get snow. There will be other chances.

Yeah. It wasn't that great, lol

Weeklies continue to improve around/just after Christmas. Below normal temps from the end of Dec all the way to the end of the run on Jan 19th or so. -EPO signal there as the trough retrogrades from Alaska.

11th? Not good? There might be a system around the 14th or so in your area. We'll see. You can see what happened to this threat, lol

12z Euro is a horrible mixed marginal mess in OK/AR.

Euro ensembles were pretty ugly as well.

It was ugly. No snow for you or me. Maybe 2" or so in NW AR and Tulsa. Stripe of snow farther south but amounts aren't that great. Mixed precip... Ugly ugly ugly

What Euro run? That run never happened. Nope, ghost run... didn't happen at all... Moving on!

http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/forecast-systems.php?lang=en&mod=ukmet

And the 00z GFS delivers.

Maybe, storm won't be fully sampled until tomorrow and any big changes in modeling will probably happen at that point. I remember, many years ago, a snowstorm that was supposed to impact the Springfield CWA. They had warnings up, the models had been indicating heavy snow with a low tracking to the south. Wichita looked at the satellite loop, visibly saw the low tracking farther NW, and immediately cancelled their warnings in SE KS. The models were wrong. The heavy snow was confined to central and western KS with rain in SW MO. It was an awful, awful bust.

So, NCEP is having data issues?

The NAM usually overdoes precip amounts. Don't get your hopes up, yet. Pretty to look at, but it is the NAM.

Looks like it'll be mostly ashore tomorrow.

That sharp northern cutoff.

Yeah, I can't remember a single time it was right, but it was fun looking at the 36" snowstorms it showed. NAM is pretty useless until the system gets sampled over the SW.

Used to do it with GFS extensions. Was called the DGEX but they shut it down last year I think?

24 to 72 hours I believe. Warning is like 36 hours?

Globals typically scour out the low level cold too quickly. However, with that being said, there's usually a stronger warm nose aloft than the models project which results in mixed precip falling farther north than what the models think. With a northerly fetch of cold, dry air at the surface, that should help wet bulb down surface temps, if precip is falling.

That's usually what happens. Also may have a pretty sharp northern cutoff on the precip as well.

If only the NAM could be trusted from this far out.....

Decent Euro run for AR/OK.

They can sometimes. 00z Euro was better than the 12z. But still pretty meh.

I don't have temps, just precip, so I don't know if it's frozen or anything.