JoMo

Man, this forecast is teetering on the edge. System needs to close off/neg tilt. But if it does it too soon, then you get the 12z Canadian depiction which takes the frozen precip west and north. If it is too progressive and doesn't start until it gets east of us, then you get the 12z GFS depiction. And then there's the 12z Euro which is close... if it's just a bit farther SE, then we'd all be good.....

Yeah, the Canadian closes off really early though. It's a bias that it closes everything off.

Now that's a sharp front.

Yeah, still not closing it off. We probably need a closed off system passing to our south to sling moisture/cold back.

NW trend should start anytime.

12z Euro was farther east with the heavier snow. Looking interesting!

Exciting juicy runs

Confusing forecast coming up with a lot of moving parts. It's gonna rain for sure, but hopefully some of these systems track favorably for snow.

Told you I jinxed it.

The 00z CMC/Euro had something interesting within 10 days last night. JINXED!

It's more difficult to get snow the farther south you go. More things have to go right in order for that to happen. If the timing is off, then it matters more than if the timing is off in colder locations to the north. Everything has to be more perfect the farther south you go in order for it to snow. Doug's winter forecast has been awful the last few years. The models have been awful as well. There are signs of colder weather ahead as the atmosphere will reshuffle. Will that be good for us? Not sure, yet. EDIT: The GFS is pretty much trash in the long range. The EPS (Euro) is easily outperforming it. With that being said, the EPS shows a -EPO coming up which should dump cold air into the US, the question is if it dumps it into the west coast, or if it dumps it down the Plains. It has a -PNA look long range.

Merry Christmas to you as well. Smelled people BBQ'ing outside last night instead of the smell of chimney smoke though.

Well, Kansas is so flat that it turns into a giant lake when it rains heavily. It's so confusing driving across Kansas seeing "impassable during high water" signs on the side of the road and there's not even a creek or ditch on the side of the road.

Having a hard time deciding which pair of shorts and t-shirt I'm going to wear for Christmas....

Never seems to happen. The atmosphere tends to 'flip' to the opposite look given time. If you have constant low pressure in one spot, the atmosphere will try to balance it out and there will be high pressure in that spot for a time, eventually it will flip again.

Yeah, sorry about that. Maybe it'll snow again next year?

That was a nice little snowfall yesterday afternoon. Always nice to have snow before Christmas, especially since it's going to be so warm and boring.

Mix of stuff here been happening for like the last hour. It's like 27

Wtf is with all the frozen precip suddenly showing up in models?? I stop watching it and wtf

Oh well, at least the Chiefs game will be in the snow!

And Springfield tossed me in the WWA an hour ago for an amazing dusting to 1" of snow and ice up to 1 tenth.

Another small south shift on the 18z NAM. (you all know this is going to fail, right? It is the NAM after all.....)

It's a beautiful day here today. 32 degrees with patchy drizzle. Getting ready for the Army/Navy game. Looks like it's 40 there with drizzle.

12z Euro with a small bump south as well. Got to get me some mood flakes!

And 12z GFS nudged things a bit back south as well.