Yeah, that's the storm that's been showing up, but the GFS might be too cold. The temp difference between the 12z Euro and the 18z GFS is huge. It's like -2 in Omaha, NE on the GFS while it's 34 on the Euro at 06z FRI the 17th.
That's tough, probably a Winter Weather advisory with a strip of Winter Storm Watch where they expect the heaviest snow band? Although that isn't taking into account any possible ice that may make them issue a WSW for the entire area expecting frozen precip down there.
12z GFS and 12z Euro are quite similar. The Euro snow map posted above didn't capture the MO snow that happens. Up to what, 2-3" in your area on the 12z? Last nights Euro had you at around 1". So there was an eastward shift. The GFS is still a smidge SE of the Euro though with more amounts.
Canadian lowered amounts and is farther east with the snow in Missouri, but pretty similar to last nights run on the western edge of snow in OK/KS. (with the exception of SW OK)
Well, it might have a point on the less moisture in the 'wrap around' since there looks to be a big squall line scouring out much of the moisture out ahead of the system, and it doesn't have a big negative tilt to it.