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JoMo

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Everything posted by JoMo

  1. We gotta get something because we're in for a mild and boring stretch after that system.
  2. Indeed, also, we don't want this to be a strong system as that will simply give us all rain. Instead, this wave needs to be pretty flat/weak.
  3. 12z Canadian is going to be farther south with the snow.
  4. 00z GFS looking to stick pretty close to it's 18z solution on the first storm. EDIT: 00z GEM is a hair farther north
  5. The awful looking ones are still here: http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewallmref.html
  6. Well the GFS has a bias of scouring out cold air too quickly, but it's really going to come down to the orientation of the trough which won't be known for a few more days. Many more model runs to watch.
  7. But it comes back with a stronger band later on. I dig. But it's a really precarious situation. Nice "4" inch snowfall for Joplin and Tulsa.
  8. Based on a quick low-res look at the 12z GFS Ensembles. I wouldn't count out anything wrt the 15th-17thish system.
  9. Such great weather porn! Back to reality, and the 12z canadian has a bit less snow and a sharper cutoff a bit farther north than the 00z run.
  10. Energy still digging in the SW, going to be a massive snow and ice storm on the 12z GFS after 228.
  11. Slight difference from the 06z GFS run, keep in mind this is 6 hours later is all... lol From this:
  12. Ah yes, the 12z GFS with the heart crushing NW trend of a different trough orientation right on time.
  13. The overnight runs were decent and in the right direction.
  14. Yeah the 12z Euro OP was a little different due to some modeled changes. Mainly a stronger initial system around like the 14th pulling down colder air. The issue is that the flow is just too fast and nothing is amplifying. So instead of getting a low forming, you just get positive trough coming out of the 4 corners region.
  15. The GFS has been running too cold with temps lately. So I wouldn't be shocked to see a northward movement in the snowfall chances with the system around the 15th-17th. CANADA EH?
  16. Some post frontal snow showers in the mountains of Arkansas? Hmm
  17. Yeah, there's split flow, and models will have trouble resolving it and will probably change a lot. It looks like it will at least be more exciting with colder air around.
  18. Looks positive tilted and too far north for most of us though.
  19. Well, all the models currently have a system around hour 240. What's the 12z Euro have after 240?
  20. It'll probably snow the 16th. That's the day I have important plans.
  21. Gonna be a miss this run, no northern stream energy diving in to phase.
  22. Euro seasonal went cold for Jan, hmm. Probably be 80 everyday, lol
  23. Ah, yes the 3 day snowstorm. That's what happens if the energy doesn't cutoff over the SW or Mexico. Some ensemble support.
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