Well the GFS has a bias of scouring out cold air too quickly, but it's really going to come down to the orientation of the trough which won't be known for a few more days. Many more model runs to watch.
Yeah the 12z Euro OP was a little different due to some modeled changes. Mainly a stronger initial system around like the 14th pulling down colder air. The issue is that the flow is just too fast and nothing is amplifying.
So instead of getting a low forming, you just get positive trough coming out of the 4 corners region.
The GFS has been running too cold with temps lately. So I wouldn't be shocked to see a northward movement in the snowfall chances with the system around the 15th-17th.
CANADA EH?
Yeah, there's split flow, and models will have trouble resolving it and will probably change a lot. It looks like it will at least be more exciting with colder air around.