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JoMo

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Everything posted by JoMo

  1. JoMo
    Well, all the models currently have a system around hour 240. What's the 12z Euro have after 240?
  2. JoMo
    It'll probably snow the 16th. That's the day I have important plans.
  3. JoMo
    Gonna be a miss this run, no northern stream energy diving in to phase.
  4. JoMo
    Euro seasonal went cold for Jan, hmm. Probably be 80 everyday, lol
  5. JoMo
    Ah, yes the 3 day snowstorm. That's what happens if the energy doesn't cutoff over the SW or Mexico. Some ensemble support.
  6. JoMo
    I'll take an order of #21 or #22 please. I did that a year or two ago, looked at the Euro ensemble for trends, and it changes too much from run to run to make a difference. Saw like an 80% chance of snow dwindle to nothing in one run, lol
  7. JoMo
    Stout -EPO signal showing back up.
  8. JoMo
    At least there's something to track and cold air back in the forecast.
  9. JoMo
    Lol, yeah I saw that. Gonna probably disappear next run though.
  10. JoMo
    Happy Thanksgiving. Great day for it!
  11. JoMo
    Thanksgiving looks a bit cold and rainy(mix/snow in some places early) Looks like we'll have this initial system on Tues. Then mix/snow to rain on Thanksgiving: Followed by rain on Fri: And maybe some rain/snow showers on Saturday into early Sunday: Looks active at least......
  12. JoMo
    Models are changing a lot from run to run in the extended, but it does appear that a big system will be possible sometime around Thanksgiving. Severe weather probably out ahead of it and maybe a blizzard behind it.
  13. JoMo
    Lol. It's just Nov 18th. I'm more concerned with the long range models showing less of a -EPO and more of a -PNA pattern.
  14. JoMo
    12z GEFS looked great after Day 10 or so. Hopefully the Euro ensemble comes around to the colder look today.
  15. JoMo
    Yeah I saw that next weekendish. Just a very marginal setup where a lot of things can and probably will go wrong or trend in the wrong direction. We'll see though.
  16. JoMo
    I guess the EPS (Euro) has a lack of blocking, which results in warmer temps. This was last night. FWIW, the Canadian is on the GFS side as well. Plus tropical forcing should be more towards the GFS as well. The Euro or GFS is gonna bust.
  17. JoMo
    Better look starting to show up on the GEFS long range.
  18. JoMo
    Yeah, we're going to warm up as the flow changes. Pacific air will be flooding in and things are going to be kind of boring for a week or two at least. Someone posted the Euro weeklies here and it's kind of 50/50 unsure. But this looks somewhat better:
  19. JoMo
    Light snow/flurries here, just sleeted a bit ago as well. Looks mostly over now. Got a dusting.
  20. JoMo
    Yeah, it is pretty nice. We will have to see how long the different pattern lasts. MJO is going to be going back into the 'cold' phases by the end of the month it looks like. So, there might be changes at that time.
  21. JoMo
    Kind of cool getting *bonus* winter weather before winter though. Pattern is going to change and warm up though.
  22. JoMo
    Yeah, they are playing catch up with the WWA's because they thought there would be minimal road impacts, but there's already been like 7 accidents in the last hour in my area.
  23. JoMo
    Brrr, just poured some sleet....
  24. JoMo
    Hope this happens, and we don't have to 'chase' one of these all winter again...
  25. JoMo
    Yeah, the point was to show how far off the model was with just a 1 month lead time. How can you believe it's anywhere close to being correct 2-3 months ahead of time if it can't even get the next month close to being right?
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