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JoMo

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Everything posted by JoMo

  1. JoMo
    12z Euro is interesting. Maintained some consistency from it's 12z run yesterday through 120 or so. Couple notable differences showing everything shifting back west with a stronger SE ridge, a deeper system in the base of the trough out west the rest of the run though. Creates a pretty sharp gradient Christmas morning. Also will be a chance of some frozen precip along/near the front since the entire thing is positive tilted.
  2. JoMo
    12z GEM has a couple rounds of snow with a couple different systems before Christmas for some and then crippling cold. This is just insane looking...
  3. JoMo
    12z GFS had more changes. Temps aren't as cold for Christmas as the SE Ridge really flexes this run.
  4. JoMo
    00z Euro is going to look somewhat similar to the 00z GFS. Massive -EPO ridge leading to the downstream "PV" feature moving across southern Canada and the northern US. Flurries for some areas on the 23rd-25th, otherwise becoming very cold. Temps in the teens Christmas morning.
  5. JoMo
    00z Canadian and 00z GFS look drastically different after about 144 or so. GEM concentrates the energy over the west.
  6. JoMo
    This run was pretty boring unless you like cold and dry. The "polar vortex" drops down into the N. Plains and into the Great Lakes.
  7. JoMo
    Christmas morning sure is cold on the 00z GFS. Probably some flurries around during the day maybe.
  8. JoMo
    lol 18z GFS.. you can see how much change with one model run.
  9. JoMo
    Christmas morning in the teens for many, Looks like 10-20 below normal for many.
  10. JoMo
    12z Euro has some snow breaking out across KS/MO/OK/NW 1/2 of AR on Christmas Eve. The upper air pattern has changed pretty drastically from the 12z run yesterday.
  11. JoMo
    So you're saying you wouldn't like the 12z Canadian, eh?
  12. JoMo
    Sheesh, 12z GFS... Not all of this is 'snow', a lot of freezing rain/sleet combo in here but you can see the areas of expected frozen precip over the next 10 days.
  13. JoMo
    Well, how about those models today? Good luck with forecast.
  14. JoMo
    Eh 00z Euro had a cutoff it buries over the Baja. Overall, really 'meh' run.
  15. JoMo
    00z GEFS made the 00z GFS look like an outlier.
  16. JoMo
    No cutoff on the 00z GFS. Also more of a +PNA look towards the end of the run so trough is more east.
  17. JoMo
    It will be interesting to see if the models get even colder the closer we get to the event. I seem to recall them not being cold enough with the cold air back in the big EPO years a few years ago.
  18. JoMo
    We can get cold with -EPO or -AO. The last few winters have had a predominantly +AO which doesn't bode well for cold here. (I think 2012-2013 was last fullish -AO winter) So the other way is the -EPO which delivers the cold air. I think a neutral PNA was best for wintry weather though.
  19. JoMo
    Man, that -EPO ridge just won't go away. This is similar to about 4-5 years ago when we had those back to back years where the -EPO ridge persisted and we got tons of cold and snow was above average.
  20. JoMo
    Yep. Probably more to come as well. Yep... what an insane run...
  21. JoMo
    00z GFS is going to have a big winter storm it looks like. Really digging the energy into the west.
  22. JoMo
    Yeah, there's still a lot of run to run differences showing up from model run to model run on each individual model as can be expected with a pattern change.
  23. JoMo
    Merry Christmas from the 18z GFS.
  24. JoMo
    12z Euro was a bit of an outlier compared to the 12z GFS/CMC and the Euro Ensemble mean. Looking a bit chilly Christmas morning on the EPS.
  25. JoMo
    12z GFS still has the Christmas week storm(s). Strong -EPO ridge is going to spill cold air south. The interesting thing is the persistent troughing in the west and the SE ridge. This is going to set up a fairly crazy looking pattern where pieces of energy are going to eject out of the trough and override the cold air at the surface, this leads to several rounds of frozen precip and probably a couple of ice storms near our area.
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