JoMo

Man, that -EPO ridge just won't go away. This is similar to about 4-5 years ago when we had those back to back years where the -EPO ridge persisted and we got tons of cold and snow was above average.

Yep. Probably more to come as well. Yep... what an insane run...

00z GFS is going to have a big winter storm it looks like. Really digging the energy into the west.

Yeah, there's still a lot of run to run differences showing up from model run to model run on each individual model as can be expected with a pattern change.

Merry Christmas from the 18z GFS.

12z Euro was a bit of an outlier compared to the 12z GFS/CMC and the Euro Ensemble mean. Looking a bit chilly Christmas morning on the EPS.

12z GFS still has the Christmas week storm(s). Strong -EPO ridge is going to spill cold air south. The interesting thing is the persistent troughing in the west and the SE ridge. This is going to set up a fairly crazy looking pattern where pieces of energy are going to eject out of the trough and override the cold air at the surface, this leads to several rounds of frozen precip and probably a couple of ice storms near our area.

Gonna be an interesting 00z GFS run it looks like.......

Christmas is still looking cold. Warmth should come to an end around the 21st or 22nd.

Yeah, the 18z GFS has an overrunning situation and then after 384, looks to be attempting a phase. Fascinating. Unfortunately, it's about 9-10 days until the possible system hits land over WA/OR.

That system showing up on the GFS near Christmas (give or take a day or two) looks interesting.

It's going to warm up prior to that as the pattern shifts. By the end of the run the colder air looks poised to drop back south down the Plains possibly. Not sure how far south it will get though. The 06z GEFS def shows it dropping farther south.

12Z EPS was more into it.

The GEFS hints at the retrogression with the trough moving back west. The Euro isn't as into it though. The -EPO look remains on both models though so cold air will be available in Canada.

Been busy with some stuff lately. Nothing really exciting going on with the trough in the east, leads to NW flow here which means all the snowfall usually ends up east of here if nothing can undercut the ridge in the west. I was hoping for some retrogression of the pattern with the trough moving back to our area like the models had been showing, but the Euro ensemble hasn't been very excited about that lately. We'll see though since the CFS has been showing that happening towards the end of the month and into Jan.

Yeah the 12z Euro EPS and the 12z GEFS look pretty similar. The projected pattern is getting closer. Hopefully it results in some precipitation as well. On another note, the Chiefs are back to being garbage like usual.

Yeah, if it still looks that way in a week or so, I may actually think it's going to happen.

Man, the 12z Euro ensemble still has that good blocking signal, and it's getting closer in time.

This is starting to look pretty decent.... Now if it actually happens.... that's another story. Heard the Weeklies have a lot of -EPO/-AO look to them week 3+

Ben Noll has been on the 2010-2011 analog kick lately. Not sure what happened down that way, but we had a few snowstorms here https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather

Yeah, the current pattern is boring. Still looking at possible changes around the first week or two of Dec it looks like. Assuming the models don't change. Hoping the Euro corrects farther east with the trough in the west in the long range. The -EPO looks good. Have a good Thanksgiving everyone!

Doug's first thoughts on winter. He thinks it will be cold with near average to slightly above average snow. He's busted the last 2 winter forecasts though. http://headypattern.com/friday-night-saturday-am-blog-quick-look-at-the-winter/

12z Euro ensembles looking more interesting as we head into the first week of Dec with the SW troughing.

All the 'fake' weather websites on FB took that GFS run with the snowstorm seriously and have been spreading it everywhere. I've had people saying it's going to snow a lot next weekend.

Hmm, also wet over OK/TX on the JAMSTEC.