JoMo
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Everything posted by JoMo
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12z UKMET also shifted SE up this way, which is good cause it had a relatively drier area in NW AR that is now located in central AR.
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I like to keep my expectations low so it has a better chance of overperforming. Plus, the continuation of the slow SE slide of the QPF is a worry.
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So out of all the models that have run so far, I'm probably averaging around 4" of 10:1. Tack on an extra inch or two for colder temps, so maybe the upper end of SGF's forecast amounts. If they can identify where any bands set up, then maybe those areas will get put under a Winter Storm Warning as they may exceed 6".
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Well if the GFS is right, this is just the appetizer with the main course still yet to come with the 2nd system.
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There's been an overall shift SE with the QPF in pretty much all the models.
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Why? Is there an actual snow hole over your house?
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Euro continued to decrease QPF though.
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I don't know what SGF was talking about in their AFD. The system that forms the trough in the west that is the basis for the snow doesn't move onshore in northern cali until tomorrow morning. The lead wave that dampens out is the one they were talking about I guess.
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Storm #2 on the 00z GFS is coming in beefier.
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Weird seeing all of OK lit up pink with the Winter Storm Warning.
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They go higher at the end.
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QPF continues trending down. Still a good snowfall for most people though, just lower expectations.
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18z NAM is really going to wrap it up at the end of the run.
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haha, that little narrow snowband right IMBY. About 9-10" Kuchera before the main show starts.......
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Yeah, that's the thing with Kuchera, it's highly dependent on the model getting the QPF exactly right and the exact temps at the time the precip is falling.
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Pivotal's Kuchera uses the formula. I'm not sure what Weatherbell's uses. In the winter weather tab of the parameter menu on the side, there's a "Kuchera" which shows what the ratio is for that given time on the model. So on the 12z GFS for hour 63 for example, the Kuchera ratio is 15:1 in your area. The 12z NAM is also at 15:1
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Euro is free on pivotalweather now? Generally 0.3-0.4 for your area. https://www.pivotalweather.com/
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Tulsa WSW.. 6-10" for these counties: 5-8" in far NE OK. And now the site is erroring.
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Euro had a little less precip this go 'round in general. Congrats OKC this run. NW AR kind of gets screwed a bit, but overall, accumulating snow for all.
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Looks like tomorrow morning.
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12z UKMET also with the band of snow over NE OK into SW MO. It decreased overall amounts from last night's run for the system as a whole.
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The 15z RAP just finished. It also has that crazy band, although maybe just a bit farther SE?
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12z Canadian drastically increased amounts from last night... Late to the show, Canada... late to the show.... I'm going to set my disappointment threshold to 4" of snow. If I get less than that, I'll be sad, more than that, I'll be ecstatic.
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12z GFS V16 was more generous farther north because it was more neutral/negative tilted and also tracked the core farther west.
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The speed probably has to do with more of a positive tilt to the trough early on, until it starts to tilt neutral/negative.
