JoMo
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After rising to at least 30 last night, the cold air sloshed back south and it's now 22. Although areas just barely south of Joplin are in the upper 20's to around 30 still. The HRRR is correcting by getting progressively colder each run as it oozes the cold air south each run. It looked like it was going to get up to around 32 today, the highest hourly temp it reaches is now 25 and that's this morning.
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It's like 22 out. Not sure we will hit the 30s today..... WWA expanded to SW MO.
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WWA's now extending into NE OK and NW AR.
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That's because the Canadian takes the big upper low way west and induces strong SW flow. While the GFS has it farther east to the NE of the Great Lakes
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It appears it was about 5 degrees too warm here when it initialized. I see SW KS and W OK have an Winter Weather Advisory out for freezing drizzle. Edit: Wichita just issued a WWA as well for freezing drizzle.
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Watch out for the freezing drizzle and icing, as it looks like it's going to be around for the next few days to those that remain below freezing.
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Snowing out. Light snow with decent flakes.
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12z Euro is actually pretty similar temp wise to last nights 00z run until about hour 150 when the Arctic air is much farther south into AR and OK and it stays there. And then the big winter storm around the 15th or so.
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12z UKMET is cold as well, so maybe just a wonky Euro run. We'll see in like 45 mins.
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Yessir. Looks like ICT gets 14.7" on 10:1 and 26.1" via Kuchera through 240 hours on the 12z GFS.
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32" of Kuchera snow (19.6" of 10:1) in Joplin through hour 240 on the 12z GFS. Niiiice.
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Well, the 12z GFS and 12z Canadian aren't following the 00z Euro. Maybe just a wonky run?
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Even more coming after this, but the ratio will be lower as we start to "warm up".
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Yeah the 18z GFS went more with the Euro depiction in the longer range. It'll change, but it's fun.
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18z RDPS (Canadian) looks pretty similar to it's 12z run. Splotchy on the snow amounts except N AR.
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Much of that falls with temps around/above freezing in AR/OK and much of SW MO, but it's still snow. Looks like the 12km NAM has a closed 850/700 MB low this run.
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Well, that was a fun run. It'll change again so not worth looking at specifics. Euro isn't buying the snowfall tomorrow along the MO/AR border like some of the other models though.
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Well, that's a big change on the 12z Euro for sure.... The orientation of the big low, and everything has changed drastically since the 00z run. This had a huge effect on cold air placement, precip placement, etc.
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Going to be a tough forecast since so much of it has to do with how far the cold air advances and the big upper low over Canada and how it controls the flow as well as any additional little pieces of energy that are able to come underneath it. Also, big differences on when it moves out, or if it moves out, past 10 days.
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The Kuchera snow amount #'s are going to be crazy because it has it so cold.
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The 12z Canadian is probably going to look really snowy. SW Flow over all that subfreezing air.
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That's chilly.
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Being right on the freezing line is probably going to be a pain in the butt for a few days with the line moving back and forth with each passing disturbance, until the front gets shoved farther south. Also keep in mind that when it does get cold, the liquid to snow ratios go up, so less QPF is required for greater amounts of snow.
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Somewhat useful for long range trends, but not useful for individual threats.
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12z Euro edged a bit closer to the GFS on the Sat system. It's having more interaction with the cold air, is a little sharper, and now has mid-30's temps with a rain/snow mix in OK where it had 50's on last nights run. Bonkers amount of cold air later on in the run.
