JoMo

Nice, cold, rainy fall day today. Even colder air is on the way next week though. Springfield even mentioned this:

Models trying to go with a colder look the first week of Nov. Maybe more troughing in the central/eastern US.

New thread:

It's that time of year again. Looks like another La Nina year coming up. Euro showing some interesting stuff when it comes to having a possible weaker polar vortex this winter, at least early on, we'll see.

Yeah, it's pretty much guesswork anyway, especially when it comes to individual systems which can make or break a "good winter" as far as snowfall goes. Cold and dry is boring. A weaker polar vortex would increase the risk for arctic air intrusions, but that doesn't always mean they'd be directed on our side of the world.

Warm stratosphere = weaker polar vortex = colder in our area.

Meteorologist Doug Heady's son passed away at the age of 12 this morning after a 15 month battle with a rare sarcoma cancer. Doug's dad is also in hospice care. Sad times.

Estimated 90-100 MPH winds reported in that storm in SE KS. Yikes.

80-85 MPH thunderstorm winds around the Topeka/KC area, going to drop south later today.

That storm near Vinita, (NE OK) is looking suspect, tagged tornado possible. (They dropped the tag)

Flash flood warning here. Strong storm, pouring. (Around 2" rain in 45 mins) Hopefully that ends my severe chances today. Area around Tulsa and to the S and W of there looks like it could be an area of concern.

10% tornado tomorrow IMBY on the new outlook down into NE OK. Yuck.

I took the opportunity to do a little reflecting yesterday in the neighborhood that I took a lot of pictures in and it's so weird thinking back at how it went from houses and mature trees, to total destruction, where it just looked like a giant landfill with the occasional skeleton of a house and twisted, broken, debarked tree trunks sticking up everywhere. After that came the total nothingness after the cleanup before the city allowed building again. It was just nothing but dirt, street, dirt, street for blocks. And then houses started popping up, one by one. And now, ten years later the houses are all finished, and the trees that have been planted are well on their way to maturity. If you didn't know, you would assume that nothing bad had ever happened and that people had just built new houses in the area, like it was a new subdivision. This appears to be footage from 20th street an hour after the tornado hit. The person that posted it says they've never shared it until yesterday.

Indeed. I posted some updates to the big thread starting here:

Today marks ten years since the tornado. I'll never forget the sound (the roaring tornado, the constant ambulance sirens), sight (everything looking like a giant landfill, being able to see from one end of the city to the other end due to the lack of trees), and smells (first freshly cut wood and then natural gas) of that day, and the resultant days after that when so many people came to help. I'll never forget seeing the good side of humanity, people working together, people looking out for their neighbors, and the will and determination to move forward and rebuild. I'll never forget seeing the bad side of humanity as well, the out of town looters, and the "master" development firm that the city hired to rebuild that delivered pretty much nothing. Joplin's population has pretty much stayed the same around 50,000 as it has for many years before and after the tornado. The housing stock has been replenished and in some places even exceeds what was there before. A developer that formed after the tornado has packed houses in pretty tightly in some places. That might not be a good thing when it comes to future storms. Only two families out of the original 7 still live in their Extreme Makeover Home Edition houses. Some moved to bigger houses, some moved away, and some didn't like being a tourist attraction and just wanted peace and quiet. In just a few hours the Joplin Memorial Run (Half-marathon, 10k, 5k) will begin at Cunningham Park where they have placed the banners for the 161 lives lost due to the tornado. An observance ceremony is taking place after that with the former Governor and Mayor speaking. Here's some before/10 years after pictures of some areas. Also some other stories about the tornado as well. https://www.fourstateshomepage.com/news/local-news/joplin-tornado-before-after-pictures/ But, I'll never forget the lives lost that day, especially the mothers/fathers who lost children.

I believe I posted about Louie and Jackson. "Brother" comfort dogs from Immanuel Lutheran Church here in Joplin. They would visit nursing homes, schools, etc... They went to places such as Sandy Hook after the school shooting there. Las Vegas after the Mandalay Bay Massacre and Moore, OK after the tornado as well. In 2016, there was a very bizarre incident where a schizophrenic man shot at the church bus they were in as they were headed to St. Louis for training. Louie was hit in the neck and Jackson suffered a graze to his ear and four of the people in the van were injured as well. The man who did the shooting was just found competent to stand trial last month. Jackson passed away due to sudden heart attack in 2019. https://www.immanueljoplin.com/2019/03/remembering-jackson-comfort-dog/ Louie passed away 2 months ago of a seizure disorder. https://www.immanueljoplin.com/2021/03/in-memory-of-louie-comfort-dog/ Good boys.

Massive localized flooding under some storms in SW MO. They got about 6-8" in a 6 hour period, caused flooding but it was really localized.

Always found these interesting.

The 12z Euro (and at least a couple previous runs) would indicate an MCS forming over OK/MO/AR Monday evening/night. The GFS/NAM not really excited about that at this time. It has been slower with the front when compared to the NAM/GFS as well.

As we enter May 2021, we are coming up on 10 years since the Joplin tornado. The NWS Springfield has made a StoryMap webpage with meteorological information on the Joplin tornado. https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/d64c8d41c28949bd87478f252ac7e378

Absolute snow globe here. Huge flakes

Snow tonight and tomorrow? Last gasp of winter.

Yikes. Here's hoping for the best in that area. That might end up being a really smart decision you made.

Well, that was some neat snow early this morning for some of us.

There might be something around the 25th-27th or so. Everything would have to come together right. Back into a faster flow with multiple systems, like we were before the big cold outbreak.