Jump to content

Powerball

Members
  • Content count

    11,334
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by Powerball

  1. Powerball

    June 2018 Obs

    Many of the same areas that got hit yesterday got hit agan today...
  2. Powerball

    June 2018 Obs

    I've seen them do so a few times in the Midwest. When the conditions are right though (shear, steering flow, etc.), they do their own thing entirely when it comes to the evolution/track of convection and all bets are off in terms of forecasts.
  3. Powerball

    June 2018 Obs

    Updated SPC outlook: SPC AC 241300 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 AM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018 ...Mid-South to Tennessee Valley... A well-organized and long-lived quasi-linear MCS continues to persist across Arkansas early this morning, likely with aid of a trailing MCV across far northeast Oklahoma. Various convection-allowing models including overnight HRRR runs have tended to erroneously predict a weakening of this convection. It is plausible that this MCS persists and even re-intensifies within a moist and diurnally destabilizing boundary layer. At the very least, the parent MCV will likely provide favorable forcing for ascent, as well an enhanced belt of mid-level winds/deep-layer shear, for severe-conducive development into the afternoon as it spreads eastward across the region. Damaging winds should be the most common concern, but severe hail and even some tornado risk may exist through early evening. ..Guyer/Marsh.. 06/24/2018
  4. Powerball

    June 2018 Obs

    Mesoscale Discussion 0856 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 AM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018 Areas affected...extreme northeast Texas...much of Arkansas...northwest Mississippi...and far western Tennessee Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 211... Valid 241237Z - 241430Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 211 continues. SUMMARY...Thunderstorms ongoing across western Arkansas will continue to pose a risk for large hail and strong, gusty winds as they move into central Arkansas. The environment ahead of this thunderstorm cluster suggests that a new Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be needed east of the current watch. DISCUSSION...Long-lived mesoscale convective system (MCS) with leading edge bow-echo continues across western Arkansas. Recent radar trends suggest an uptick in intensity as the MCS is moving into central Arkansas. Surface dewpoints in the 70s and diurnal heating will allow for continued destabilization ahead of this feature. Thus, most-unstable CAPE values currently around 2000 J/kg should only increase through the morning. Additionally, this area is on the southern fringe of the better deep-layer shear, which will only act to further thunderstorm organization and MCS maintenance. Thus, the severe threat may continue through the morning and begin to impact areas outside of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 211. The region will continue to be monitored for the potential of an additional Severe Thunderstorm Watch to the east of watch 211. ..Marsh/Guyer.. 06/24/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD... LAT...LON 33509557 35709417 36099164 34938954 33099090 33509557
  5. Powerball

    June 2018 Obs

    Storm reports from yesterday. Areas along the MS/AL/GA/TN border saw most of the activity.
  6. Powerball

    June 2018 Obs

    Yet again, it could be a nowcasting situation as far as severe weather. Pretty organized MCS coming out of OK right now, diving ESE. The difference this morning is there's no convection ahead of it to disrupt it.
  7. Powerball

    June 2018 Obs

    Pretty active day on Friday across a lot of the SE, including several tornado reports in AL. There were about 27 reports out of Metro Atlanta.
  8. Powerball

    June 2018 Obs

    It's looking like today could be round 2 (big change from yesterday). NAM shows the QLCS across OK moving ESE throughout the day and re-intensifying. Could get interesting with more strong winds and the already saturated grounds, given the trees already took a heck of a beating today.
  9. Powerball

    June 2018 Obs

    We got slammed here. A 2nd line filled in to the W/SW and bowed out as it moved E/NE through here, easily producing 50+ MPH winds.
  10. Powerball

    June 2018 Obs

    Made it to 90*F before storms moved in. Should be the last one until maybe Saturday, ending a 4-day streak. ATL only made it to 88*F, due to a somewhat earlier arrival of storms and clouds.
  11. Powerball

    June 2018 General Discussion

    While not quite the low/mid 90s, MSP did recover to 87*F as of 5pm. That's definitely something, considering they were only at 72*F with clouds/drizzle at 1pm.
  12. Powerball

    June 2018 General Discussion

    Watching from afar, the real interesting one as far as thee heat will be Minneapolis. NWS grids still show highs in the low/mid 90s, yet as we enter peak heating, light rain showers / drizzle continue with temps in the low 70s. I've seen impressive temp recoveries, but one like that would be beyond amazing.
  13. Powerball

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

    No relief at any point for most of us any time soon if the GFS is correct. Can thank the SW Drought for that.
  14. Powerball

    June 2018 Obs

    For the first time since Friday, there was no measurable rain / t'storms yesterday.
  15. Powerball

    June 2018 Obs

    I was there at the very beginning of the month / end of April. It wasn't bad at all (only two really cool day, with highs in the 50s). But the trees were still bare for most of the time, which was really weird to me. Even for that far north, that was pretty late for them to leaf out.
  16. Powerball

    June 2018 Obs

    I just checked and saw it's in the 60s and cloudy with stratiform rains there. No thanks.
  17. Powerball

    June 2018 Obs

    Rinse, wash and repeat.
  18. Powerball

    June 2018 Obs

    After making it to 90*F again today, a severe thunderstorm has come out of nowhere. It's virtually stationary too. I'm at the movies and it knocked out the power. I guess that's Georgia summer weather for you, lol.
  19. Powerball

    June 2018 Obs

    ATL reached a high of 89*F yesterday.
  20. Powerball

    June 2018 Obs

    ATL made it to 90*F today, with temps at/near 90*F expected for the next several days. Monday and Tuesday were the "cool" days, with temps only in the low/mid 80s.
  21. Powerball

    June 2018 Obs

    Meanwhile today, there's yet another marginal risk for severe weather according to the SPC. Hi-Res models have hinted at a line of storms developing around eastern AL and NW Georgia later this afternoon, diving SE.
  22. Powerball

    June 2018 Obs

    Storms slammed the Atlanta metro area (particularly the north side) on Friday (6/1/18). There were over 30 wind reports and numerous reports of large trees being uprooted. Fortunately, there were no injuries or deaths reported. Severe storms leave behind damage across North Georgia
  23. Powerball

    June 2018 Obs

    The slight risk area was moved a bit further south and an emhanced risk area was added, including portions of Metro Atlanta and the Birmingham areas... Mesoscale Discussion 0607 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Fri Jun 01 2018 Areas affected...Parts of northern GA through northern/central AL to northeast MS Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 011725Z - 012000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage this afternoon across northern and central Alabama, parts of northern Georgia, and possibly across parts of northeast Mississippi with some of the storms becoming severe producing strong wind gusts and large hail. Severe thunderstorm watch could be needed for portions of this region. DISCUSSION...Trends in mosaic radar imagery and lightning data indicated some increase in coverage with a band of storms advancing to the south-southeast across northern AL, while additional storms were developing along a surface boundary that extended from north-central GA into central AL. Despite a modest increase in effective bulk shear, surface heating within a moisture-rich environment and steep low- to mid-level lapse rates will contribute to further destabilization through the afternoon. These latter factors suggest locally strong wind gusts and large hail will be possible with stronger storms. ..Peters/Guyer.. 06/01/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... LAT...LON 34668672 34618522 34318426 33158429 32808544 32718705 32878812 33268912 33548928 34268874 34668672
  24. Powerball

    May 2018 Obs

    It figures. As soon as I'm out of town, Summer arrives...
×