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Everything posted by Powerball

  1. Didn't Marshall get hit by the Christmas eve snowstorm in 2017, then the LES squalls on Christmas day?
  2. Yeah, in much of the country, Summer downpours usually are brief and unorganized. You would do good for them to last 15 minutes. Anything longer is pretty exceptional. And yeah, that does sound right about February now (I thought the final amount was higher than 6 inches).
  3. I'm sure there were plenty of good Summer downpours. That's normal. The task though is getting them to last long. Since summer rains tend to be more scattered and convective in nature, they're short in duration and don't have much of an opportunity to accumulate a lot in any one location. BTW, I thought that Feb 17th event looked familiar. It was the highly anticipated Big Dog that completely unraveled in the 11th hour...
  4. Looks like Hamburg will be the bullseye after all... Brutal cut off (so far) for most of Buffalo proper though.
  5. LES chase is definitely on my bucket list. This would have been a perfect setup.
  6. Thursday afternoon/evening is looking good for another severe weather event across NE / KS / MO / IA...
  7. 63 MPH wind gust was measured at DFW with the squall line.
  8. While a tropical airmass with convection is ongoing across DFW into Eastern Texas, it's currentlt 34*F and snowing in Amarillo.
  9. Window's definitely closing for discrete tornadic cells in the Metroplex. Can see the cold front accelerating into the far western edge of DFW on radar. EDIT: That said, the damaging wind threat seems legit in the near term with the squall line organizing in Tarrant / Denton counties.
  11. Tornado Warning OKC013-041900- /O.NEW.KOUN.TO.W.0056.221104T1808Z-221104T1900Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Norman OK 108 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022 The National Weather Service in Norman has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Southwestern Bryan County in southeastern Oklahoma... * Until 200 PM CDT. * At 108 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Sherman, moving northeast at 30 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * Locations impacted include... Durant, Colbert, Achille, Kemp, Hendrix, Cartwright, Blue, Utica, eastern Lake Texoma and Calera. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a storm shelter, safe room or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3372 9637 3378 9643 3377 9650 3382 9653 3382 9658 3384 9662 3403 9645 3403 9621 3375 9621 3377 9629 3375 9631 3370 9632 3369 9636 TIME...MOT...LOC 1808Z 226DEG 28KT 3362 9668 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN $$ Mahale
  12. That cell over Lake Ray Roberts seems to have lightning with it now. Might be one to watch.
  13. SPC mesoanalysis gives a good hint of what things look like, and it is definitely a bit ominous. Sill some residual capping, but it's eroding rapidly. In fact, an argument could be made the risk areas should be expanded a bit further west.
  14. I don't think so. This event will be almost entirely driven by good jet dynamics despite less than ideal thermodynamics. If anything, FWD's discussion from yesterday mentioned those streamer showers (like the one you're getting now) would have to be watch for growth into discrete supercells over the next few hours.
  15. Still some uncertainties to work out with timing and storm mode. The NAM and other Hi-Res models are a lot slower and more ominous-looking for North Texas and Southern Oklahoma Friday evening, whereas the global models shift the better threat (less ominous) into E. Texas pretty quickly Friday afternoon. I tend to think the more progressive / less ominous outcome will win out, especially with the help of mesoscale influences such as storm outfllows from morning activity.
  16. We're getting a taste of your weather soon too, as we actually might not get out of the 60s here by early next week. As awesome as September and the first half of October has been, it's definitely too early for my liking.
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