Powerball

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 396 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 400 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest Oklahoma Western North Texas and Low Rolling Plains * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 400 PM until 1100 PM CDT. ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION... * Primary threats include... Widespread damaging winds and scattered significant gusts to 105 mph likely Widespread large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 5 inches in diameter possible A few tornadoes likely SUMMARY...Increasing intense severe storm development is expected through late afternoon into evening. This will include initial supercells capable of very large hail with a tornado risk, but a prominent potential for widespread damaging winds should evolve this evening.

Either a PDS Severe Watch or Tornado Watch is coming shortly for parts of North / NW Texas...

FWD presents a possible fly in the ointment with respect to high-end severe potential. It wouldn't be a DFW severe weather setup if there wasn't one. Take it for what it's worth... Scenario 1 has already been discussed ad-nauseam

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1196.html

SPC is considering a Watch soon for this area...

In addition to the squall line itself, CAMs have hinted at some discrete supercells ahead of it impacting the northern DFW suburbs. That will have to be watched closely as well.

This made me laugh (I think it was their delivery)... https://x.com/TheShawnHendrix/status/1931718406912311314?t=DexunR-LH_Bybk9Bix1nMQ&s=19

Updated Day 1 Outlook has expanded the Moderate Risk area, as well as the highest hail/tornado probabilities, to include all of DFW. In fact, latest SPC wording mentions hail up to 5" in diameter...

A pretty broad moderate risk area has been issued for North Texas and Southern Oklahoma, including at least a portion of DFW. Main threat seems to be damaging straight line winds, wirh pretty strong wording in the SPC outlook of 80-100 MPH winds. Shear values in/of themselves aren't the most impressive (although still sufficient), but with the NW flow advecting in drier air aloft and strong surface heating expected, downburst potential is unusually high (especially once a cold pool gets established). Very large hail will be a secondary threat with any supercells early on with the steep mid-level lapse rates

TL;DR = The unusually late-in-the-season SSWE fucked up the upper level pattern.

We're even getting hazy skies way down here from the smoke.

I feel for you. That's brutal...

That sucks. My condolences...

Tornado Warning for Denton/Collin Counties right now with that long-track supercell. It's only radar indicated for now. Also, a separate Severe Thunderstorm Warning for destructive winds (80 MPH) just went out for the same cell. It should slip by just to my north though.

Go for it!

lol

Today is looking to be the best daytime severe weather setup DFW has seen in a long time. FWD's discussion was actually pretty ominous. No morning crapvection, borderline extreme instability by mid/late afternoon with highs around 90*F / dews in the 70s, an actual shortwave moving through at peak heating and a decent amout of mid-level dry air. The primary threats appear to be gorilla hail and and downburst winds

^^^A little too hasty...

That cell near Beaver Dam is looking pretty gnarly on the most recent frames...

Looking good, y'all...

100*F is not going to happen today at DFW due to the poor mixing heights (dewpoints pooling into the low 70s). Even breaking the record high of 95*F seems questionable after temps so far topped out at 94*F before dipping back down to 90*F as of 2pm.

Definitely wouldn't be fine if I lived in Ohio...

^^^Fine with me!!!