Powerball

The latest SPC Day 1 Outlook has expanded the enhanced risk area to include all of North Texas (includiing DFW), mainly for hail.

The precise weather conditions at the exact time of the eclipse for any specific location remain unknown this far out, but we're now close enough to April 8th to discuss large scale pattern trends as well as ensemble data, which is what FWD has been doing for the past several AFDs.

Yup!

Indeed.

Doubtful...

I can confirm second hand. My mom said there was enough snow for her neighbor to pull out the snow blower. She was tiffed too because she was telling me Kim Adams swore much of the snow would fall north of the city the night before (and in all fairness, that's what the models indicated as well). She about blew a gasket when she looked out the window yesterday morning.

Per the storm reports it seems 4-5" is the rule from that mesoscale band that affected areas between I-94 and M-59 this morning across the Detroit area. Considering these areas were only expected to get 1-3" at most, that's a decent bust in a good way.

Looks like much of the Detroit area might end up getting 3-6" with everything apparently having shifted southward.

Would be crazy if it did happen though. The comeback of the century...

And it looks like systems are a go!

A few echos are starting to show up over parts of DFW, albeit nothing impressive-looking for now. Some of CAMs are hinting the streamers coming NNE out of the Hill Country could blow up over the next few hours, but we'll see.

Dry line ia already pretty close to ripping per the visible satellite. There's a nice looking agitated CU field expending down into Big Country.

It's nothing you all aren't used to and it won't be too severe with the higher sun angle, but there is fairly good indication for a significant blast of cold air (by late March standards) next week, with 850mb temps falling to -10*C or lower and the PV Split. Granted, there's still not much snow potential outside the LES snow belts. I won't be up until the week of Easter, so I'm hoping it eases up & moderates by then.

What's really sad is that the 2nd half of March is looking to end up below (even well below) normal, and potentially bring an extended arctic air outbreak. I'll be coming up briefy at the end of March, and was hoping I didn't have to bring the winter coat. Not looking so good on that front right now.

Better to get the overcast stretches out of the way now, before the Solar Eclipse in a few weeks.

Whoops!!! i didn't even realize I made that typo...

With only 3.1", February 2024 will tie for the 19th least snowiest on record for DTW. It will also be the 4th driest with only 0.24: of precipitation.

lol @beavis1729

Energy sector guy?

It probably works the same way when some root for a warm Fall (I.E. October 1963) that others would find miserable.

As mentioned before, this sub's kind of paying the piper for the string of good winters in the late 2000s / early 2010s. Everything has a equilibrium.

My comment was more so focused on the "Winter is over" part of that tweet. They are being flippant and are technically wrong (winter weather can certainly still happen well into March / April as has been pointed out), but I see the validity in the spirit of their statement in recognition of the broader pattern. BTW, 2012 is funny in a way too because as much as folks talk about March, May was also fairly torchy (it just doesn't get discussed as much being that it sat right in the shadows of March) and both months sandwiched an April with a pretty hard freeze for many areas.