Powerball

R.I.P Birmingham...

The current initial convection moving through MO which at first did seem like it would rev up (but is outrunning the better dynamics / moisture advection) has somewhat throw a wrench into things (as mentioned, it's not being handled very well by CAMs), especially as it cuts into daytime heating. That's probably another reason why they held off on the high risk.

Storms are already on the verge of erupting in Eastern OK/KS, with plenty of clear skies ahead of it.

This could be one of those rare instances where we end up with multi-day high risk outlooks, in March at that..

This would be the 2nd time in less than 2 weeks, BTW... https://www.cnn.com/2025/03/04/weather/weather-storm-south-central-us-mardi-gras-hnk/index.html

^^^Replying to yourself (@A-L-E-K) is diabolical...

With the PV stretching out before it dissipates, there should still be a couple opportunities in the 2nd half of March for transient cold blasts and even light snowfall amounts in this subforum. But yeah, the prospects of a significant snowfall and lost-lasting cold look increasingly unlikely at this point between the Teleconnections and MJO forecast. One thing to watch though, as we transition into Summer, will be the worsening drought in the SW USA. It is giving shades of 2011 (although obviously the ENSO state isn't quite the same).

Yep, this will be another Dixie Alley special...

For winter, my favorites was the animated heavy snow and thundesnow icons. I do distinctively remember seeing the heavy snow icon in particular a whole 7 days out during the Local On The 8s in the run-up to Jan. 2005.... I also loved their animated icon for Strong T'Storms when severe weather was forecasted... (to be clear, I'm referring to the 1998 through 2006-period icons)

^^^Looks nasty for Dixie Alley...

The difference in cumulative totals for the season is one thing, but I'm not getting where this comment specifically about snowstorms is coming from. Detroit has also had a pretty mediocre run with snowstorms the past few years, even despite relatively more nickel & dime events.

I would imagine Buffalo and its southern suburbs sees true blizzard conditions fairly often, albeit that's due to the convective nature of the snow with the long fetch and friction from the lake enhancing the wind.

Don't put your winter coats and snow shovels away just yet...

It's not necessarily a bad thing at all...

That NW cutoff is brutal though.

You are correct... https://banana1015.com/michigan-is-the-safest-state-in-the-nation-when-it-comes-to-this/

This ended up being a confirmed EF-1 Tornado...

It has been a while since you all have been able to say "Congrats MSP!"

Another view: https://x.com/DallasTexasTV/status/1896928531608977490?t=Knu6rVgmt9KKoCbnW9jEbw&s=19

Wall collapse at Paint warehouse in Lewisville... https://x.com/wfaa/status/1896951691469115830?t=Oc5mimBCtNyxAWLthV4YKw&s=19

Collapsed wall at Apartment complex in Irving... https://x.com/wfaa/status/1896952387765412186?t=Ty598yqvVNnMhpp8b_WBMg&s=19

There have been 43 wind reports and 4 hail reports across DFW (thus far), and that includes 4 high wind reports 1. 82 MPH in Carrolton (Josey Ln and Hebron Pkwy) 2. 78 MPH at Dallas Love Field 3. 76 MPH in Haslet 4. 80 MPH in Decatur

More storm images / videos: Roof ripped off Plano West High School https://x.com/wfaa/status/1896910924532830713?t=L80vg9rnVS0pvieqJ3Df4Q&s=19 Another Uprooted Tree https://x.com/wfaa/status/1896918576281354477?t=qHC8Bqj8Tq_91uLIVipNFA&s=19 Live report by WFAA as storm moved in https://x.com/wfaa/status/1896909369763074258?t=_nFmSq6UvX4Kiu17bMBFmA&s=19

https://www.wfaa.com/article/traffic/north-texas-storms-winds-damage-severe/287-935981da-3b5f-4694-9321-71844f1609fe