Powerball

The radar is also indicating Tennis Ball-sized hail with that tornado-warned cell...

Can't say it hasn't been an active March, with 2 970s mb lows...

Atmosphere is still somewhat worked over from the morning / early afternoon convection. Also, low level flow, while sufficient, isn't the most ideal for a PDS tornado setup. That said, to your point about moisture, that should improve as the afternoon/evening progresses (which should also correspond with an increase in storm coverage / intensity).

Widespread Blowing Dust Advisories across OK/TX, as well as numerous wildfires & evacuation orders right now. Parts of Norman (home of the SPC) are under an evacuation order as well. I wouldn't be surprised if DFW gets added to the Blowing Dust Advisory as well, given Satellite trends.

Pattern definitely looks favorble for more unusually strong/dynamic systems for the remainder of March.

https://x.com/NWSSPC/status/1900627755374379121?t=CRhJ-hEb9K_uNTUgRgzklQ&s=19

Kind of interesting, BTW, to see what appears to be some cloud seeding with the dust on Satellite..

^^^Some of that should be moving in here shortly (within the hour).

Winds are underachieving thus far (locally), but temps are overahcieving (currently 85*F)

R.I.P Birmingham...

The current initial convection moving through MO which at first did seem like it would rev up (but is outrunning the better dynamics / moisture advection) has somewhat throw a wrench into things (as mentioned, it's not being handled very well by CAMs), especially as it cuts into daytime heating. That's probably another reason why they held off on the high risk.

Storms are already on the verge of erupting in Eastern OK/KS, with plenty of clear skies ahead of it.

This could be one of those rare instances where we end up with multi-day high risk outlooks, in March at that..

This would be the 2nd time in less than 2 weeks, BTW... https://www.cnn.com/2025/03/04/weather/weather-storm-south-central-us-mardi-gras-hnk/index.html

^^^Replying to yourself (@A-L-E-K) is diabolical...

With the PV stretching out before it dissipates, there should still be a couple opportunities in the 2nd half of March for transient cold blasts and even light snowfall amounts in this subforum. But yeah, the prospects of a significant snowfall and lost-lasting cold look increasingly unlikely at this point between the Teleconnections and MJO forecast. One thing to watch though, as we transition into Summer, will be the worsening drought in the SW USA. It is giving shades of 2011 (although obviously the ENSO state isn't quite the same).

Yep, this will be another Dixie Alley special...

For winter, my favorites was the animated heavy snow and thundesnow icons. I do distinctively remember seeing the heavy snow icon in particular a whole 7 days out during the Local On The 8s in the run-up to Jan. 2005.... I also loved their animated icon for Strong T'Storms when severe weather was forecasted... (to be clear, I'm referring to the 1998 through 2006-period icons)

^^^Looks nasty for Dixie Alley...

The difference in cumulative totals for the season is one thing, but I'm not getting where this comment specifically about snowstorms is coming from. Detroit has also had a pretty mediocre run with snowstorms the past few years, even despite relatively more nickel & dime events.

I would imagine Buffalo and its southern suburbs sees true blizzard conditions fairly often, albeit that's due to the convective nature of the snow with the long fetch and friction from the lake enhancing the wind.