Powerball

Unless the post-storm surveys indicate otherwise, the SPC has those spotter reports on the record as tornadoes (total of 9 reports yesterday).

There's also the whole Skywarn Training initiative where once you actually attend a full session in-person to learn all the technical ins & outs with storm reporting, they'd give you a "private" number & email number and implore you not to share it with anyone. But of course, humans being humans, people share it any way.

There's no foolproof way for the NWS to control who reports something and who doens't. That said, the onus should be on the NWS to discern the legitimacy of a report before confirming it.

The transluscence of the dust with dense cloud cover is something...

Well of course, for enhancement, the overall background environment still has to be favorable for convective development.

https://x.com/philipnation/status/1902391058736017607?t=9qgA-QqG2jZeawo6epgAsQ&s=19

I doubt it If anything, dust can enhance convection via cloud seeding (as we saw this past weekend). That said, I think there was suspicion all along that the RAP/HRRR were overzealous with the moisture return (and thus the ceiling).

The Blizzard Warnings are definitely verifying out there today just west/NW of Omaha.

There is some indication that things could turn "wetter" for a period towards the end of March / early April in parts of the Southern Plains / SW. Likely nothing drought-busting by any means, but any litttle bit will help before an early season heat ridge starts to build in after the first week of April...

https://x.com/efino87/status/1902335951336013932?t=Q5hj7rPmaNouZXvWJcrnUQ&s=19

With this current storrm, Omaha has seen the most Blizzard Warnings ever to start a year (3). And there's only been 1 other year (2018) where they saw 4. It's wild too considering Omaha was well on track for futility through the first 2/3rds of winter...

Likely because of the limited moisture return leading to fairly high LCLs. The wind field is looking to also be somewhat veered. But yeah, I don't think the threat is non-zero if some discrete cells can organize.

Moisture return doesn't look nearly as pristine. But dynamically-speaking, there's potential.

I don't know about you, but it would piss me off to have a futility record nickel'd and dime'd away in March...

That map is kind of misleading, as those reports also include non-t'storm wind (especially in the Plains)

Some severe cells producing damaging winds moving through the NW suburbs of Detroit right now...

So on top of the tornado outbreak happening, there was just a 3.0 magnitude Earthquake in Magee, MS...

There was some wildfire smoke mixed in... https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/14/us/wildfires-texas-oklahoma.html

SEL5 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 45 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern Louisiana Mississippi Coastal Waters * Effective this Saturday morning and evening from 1030 AM until 600 PM CDT. ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION... * Primary threats include... Numerous tornadoes and several intense tornadoes expected Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely SUMMARY...Multiple supercells are expected late this morning through early evening from eastern Louisiana into much of Mississippi. With a very favorable environment in place, numerous tornadoes are expected, including the potential for multiple intense to violent tornadoes (EF3-4+). Scattered large hail up to 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter and damaging winds of 60-75 mph will also be a threat as these thunderstorms move northeastward. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles south southwest of Mc Comb MS to 35 miles northeast of Oxford MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 44... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24040.

Yes.

It does look like the confirmed tornadoes will at least miss the city proper to the north and south. EDIT: Definitely a close call for the southside though.

It's confirmed that cell on the north side of STL has a tornado on the ground again.

NWS is saying it is a tornado on ground.