Powerball

Likely because of the limited moisture return leading to fairly high LCLs. The wind field is looking to also be somewhat veered. But yeah, I don't think the threat is non-zero if some discrete cells can organize.

Moisture return doesn't look nearly as pristine. But dynamically-speaking, there's potential.

I don't know about you, but it would piss me off to have a futility record nickel'd and dime'd away in March...

That map is kind of misleading, as those reports also include non-t'storm wind (especially in the Plains)

Some severe cells producing damaging winds moving through the NW suburbs of Detroit right now...

So on top of the tornado outbreak happening, there was just a 3.0 magnitude Earthquake in Magee, MS...

There was some wildfire smoke mixed in... https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/14/us/wildfires-texas-oklahoma.html

SEL5 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 45 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern Louisiana Mississippi Coastal Waters * Effective this Saturday morning and evening from 1030 AM until 600 PM CDT. ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION... * Primary threats include... Numerous tornadoes and several intense tornadoes expected Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely SUMMARY...Multiple supercells are expected late this morning through early evening from eastern Louisiana into much of Mississippi. With a very favorable environment in place, numerous tornadoes are expected, including the potential for multiple intense to violent tornadoes (EF3-4+). Scattered large hail up to 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter and damaging winds of 60-75 mph will also be a threat as these thunderstorms move northeastward. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles south southwest of Mc Comb MS to 35 miles northeast of Oxford MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 44... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24040.

Yes.

It does look like the confirmed tornadoes will at least miss the city proper to the north and south. EDIT: Definitely a close call for the southside though.

It's confirmed that cell on the north side of STL has a tornado on the ground again.

NWS is saying it is a tornado on ground.

The storm just east of Cedar Hill Lake has a nasty hook echo on it, but no debris signal (yet). A tornado could be starting to form though. This cell would be headed straight for STL proper.

Much of the power just went out in Chesterfield (on the Fox Weather live cam)

Granted, it is close to the radar site, so it could be misleading.

Fortunately, radar's looking better on that tornadic storm that's moving into Chesterfield.

Watching Fox Weather right now. They've ben showing a live cam of Chestefield and the lightning is quite vivid already.

There may be a tornado as well near Pinckey, MO... EDIT: Confirmed

Confirmed tornado now near St. Clair, MO...

It looks like the stronger cell tracked directly over the airport and through the west side of town. Not sure what side of town you're on...

Per radar velocity, those storms definitely seem to be producing some impressive straight-line winds as they push into STL, if nothing else.

Per the 00z sounding, there's still some weak capping down in MS, which is why the storms are struggling. That said, main show down there will be after midnight as the trailing shortwave out of TX pushes eastward.

Radar isn't looking as ominous as it did a few minutes ago on that cell. Wouldn't be surprised if the tornado lifted back up (for now), unless it's rain-wrapped.

https://x.com/KevinLighty/status/1900695849006465376?t=rEdkbxMy4RdMU9qaT86ajQ&s=19