Powerball

FWIW, I think those amounts are going to end up being low on the western part of your map.

I'm not even concerned about thermals. It's the storm's track and intensity I'm more worried about. Gonna need the trough to dig further than what the GFS shows, and for it to come through with at least a neutral tilt for any appreciable snows in the heart of DFW. With the dry air advecting in from the NE gradient around the arctic high, there's going to be a sharper northward cut off than the models are suggesting. The 00z GGEM's depiction was just about the best case scenario.

12z GFS has gone back towards a more suppressed look.

As good as things are looking, with the shortwave still way out in the middle of the ocean and several days out, it's best to keep expectations in check. If anything, I'm still worried about a miss just to the south. The 06z model runs and 12z NAM were definitely a step backwards. But yes, this has the potential to be a big one. Probably as good of a setup as you can get for North/Central TX.

Would definitely love to see the next few frames on the DGEX right now, for personal reasons.

It would be funny and sad if I somehow got more snow out of this storm than Chicago...

GHD 2011 was the last time there was a major snowstorm that held serve for an entire week.

I would definitely have to plan a trip home if the 00z GGEM happened on Christmas day. About as perfect of a blizzard setup for Detroit as you can get.

Although Philadelphia only saw a general 3-6", it was literally puking snow during that front-end thump (lasted about 2 hours). Cotton ball sized flakes too.

No plans on moving back to Michigan. I'll probably be in Texas for a little bit, then move someplace else for a different experience. The 2nd biggest perk for me with WFH is that you don't have to anchor yourself down to any one location.

Thanks! It was really luck (right place, right time). I had fully expected to be out of work for several months or longer.

I was WFH (temporarily) since March at my last job. Got laid off in October and 1.5 months later managed to land a permanent WFH job.

I'm going off the model trends. Just 48 hours ago, they were expected to see at least a foot of snow. But if you buy the latest model runs (which have been trending warmer and NW), they'll be lucky to get a couple of inches. Meanwhile, areas 60 - 80 miles NW of the city could be pushing 2 feet.

Things could be worse though. As bad as your situation is, I would be pissed if I were a weenie in Philly right now.

You should have left yesterday, definitely a $$$$ move. Now that I'm WFH as well, I might start doing the same thing for big/historic storms.

00z NAM suggests the bleeding at least may have stopped, as it's inched towards an earlier phase and shifted westward.

It's true. Even the Mid-Atlantic can go several years without seeing much (if any snow), and then they get hit with those massive Nor'easters. Seeing 1-3" or even 3-6" of snow is pretty "meh" for much of the Midwest since it happens frequently. It's when you get the double digit amounts that excitement levels shoot through the roof.

It's all relative. Down south, they get thrilled about seeing any amount of snow.

They have been plenty of apps runners in November. They were just glorified cold rain storms. That said, I'm hedging my bets on the near-miss phase and strung out POS to the east. .

You can't fight fate.

The NHC upgraded Michael to a Cat 5 post-mortem. No reason why they wouldn't do the same for Zeta if conditions were met.

Yep. DTX just released an update about this: 000 FXUS63 KDTX 141411 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1011 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2020 .UPDATE... Mid/upper level trajectories have taken the smoke plume from nrn California and the Pacific Northwest into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. Satellite representation and visual observation suggest the high altitude smoke overhead is quite opaque. So even though some of the morning strato cu has been and will continue to dissipate, afternoon sun is going to be very filtered through the upper level smoke. This seems to suggest more or less filtered sunshine today as opposed to outright sunny skies. So an update will be issued to increase sky cover today. Otherwise, the going forecast looks reasonable.

Nothing severe here, although looking at the radar, the line of storms definitely exploded SW-ward like ripping off a band-aid.

As of the 00z suite of runs, the GFS is kind of on its own with that solution.

Looks like storms are already firing up in West Central MI and over Lake Michigan. Definitely something to watch for the afternoon hours.