Powerball

Between that and what you pointed out earlier about the shortwave, I'm definitely feeling better about Detroit's severe weather chances than I did last night. None of the models seemingly have a handle of the storms over the southern part of Lake Michigan back through Illinois.

Purely anecdotal based on past observations, but in the past I've noticed when there's limited cirrus debris blowing out ahead a complex of storms, they tend to reintensify with the onset of daytime heating.

Then I suggest you look up the Supreme Court case Jacobsen vs. Massachusetts (1905).

Looks like clear skies ahead of the QLCS. Should allow for quick heating. The more interesting thing to see will be if the QLCS maintains its integirty and reintensifies for a formidable severe threat. The 06z NAM certainly hints at this outcome. The instability is already there, and good moisture advection is ongoing.

90*F at DTW as of 5pm (91*F at DET).

90*F at DET. Only 89*F at DTW so far.

Called it.

Thread should probably be extended to include the 19th, for the Eastern GL and OH Valley. I wouldn't be surprised if the slight risk area gets expanded back NW to Detroit and Toledo, although it is contingent on how tonight's activity evolves. SPC AC 180558 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2020 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN OH INTO NORTHWESTERN PA AND WESTERN NY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Sunday from portions of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley regions into the mid Mississippi Valley and parts of the Plains. Damaging winds and large hail should be the main threats. ...Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley and Western New York... An MCS may be ongoing at the start of the period Sunday morning across parts of Lower MI, with additional convection possible farther south into northern IL/IN. This MCS should decay quickly across Lower MI and vicinity as it encounters substantial convective inhibition with eastward extent across the Great Lakes region. Depending on its organization, it may still pose an isolated threat for damaging winds before it weakens/dissipates. In the wake of this morning activity, an upper trough is forecast to move east-northeastward from the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes into Ontario and Quebec through the period. A surface low should likewise develop northeastward across Ontario/Quebec through the day. A cold front trailing southwestward from this low across the Great Lakes/Upper Midwest should shift east-southeastward. Diurnal heating of a rather moist low-level airmass will likely foster moderate to potentially strong instability ahead of the front by Sunday afternoon. The stronger large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough should remain in Canada. Regardless, low to mid-level westerly flow is forecast to strengthen through the day across parts of the OH Valley into western PA/NY. A corresponding modest increase in effective bulk shear to around 25-35 kt will probably be sufficient for storm organization. Current expectations are for scattered storms to develop along/ahead of the front Sunday afternoon across northern IN/OH. Additional convection may advance eastward from southern Ontario across Lakes Erie/Ontario, and into northwestern PA and western NY by early Sunday evening. Clusters/small bows should the main storm mode. With steepened low-level lapse rates and enhanced low/mid-level flow across these areas, at least isolated damaging wind gusts may occur. Isolated instances of marginally severe hail also appear possible. Confidence has increased enough regarding this scenario to include 15% severe wind probabilities and a corresponding Slight Risk from northern OH into western NY. Storms should gradually weaken Sunday evening farther east into central PA/NY as they encounter less instability.

With temps just getting to 80*F at 12pm, I can't see how 90*F happens here today (even with full sunshine). Obviously mixing heights are shot. There's still several hours of heating left to go though, so we'll see.

DET did tag an intra-hour 90*F before the storms moved in, but unfortuntely DTW wasn't so lucky only making it to 87*F. So the 90*F+ streak officially ended yesterday, after 8 consecutive days.

It's going to be a race against time today. Starting off warm with a temp of 77*F, clear skies and 925mb temps of 25*C, but the clouds and convection are steadily moving NE. Most models still have us tagging 90*F though, which would make it the 9th consecutive day for Detroit.

Nothing here, but areas around Highland Park and immediately to the west have a flash flood warning and severe thunderstorm warning.

The lake breeze storms kicked off early today as I'm hearing thunder now. After hitting an intra-hour 91*F, DET has fallen back down to 85*F.

Damn...

The lake breeze front off Lake St. Clair clashed with a nice outflow boundary from storms in the Tri-Cities earlier, giving us a nice drenching t'storm right now.

DTX has issued a Heat Advisory for today and an Excessive Heat Watch is in effect through Thursday evening.

Obviously we're not looking at another dust bowl, but given the current model projections, this map of drought conditions in the SW plains has to be a bit concerning from the standpoint of a positive feedback loop for temperatures.

That's almost as ridiculous as the lieutenant Gov. in Texas saying Grandma should sacrifice herself for young people.

DTW managed an intra-hour 90*F today, so the streak continues...

This morning's AFD mentions there will likely be a need for Heat Advisories this upcoming week. That said, for now, the humidity has been manageable which is keeping heat indices in check.

Indications suggest this time may be different. The long range pattern isn't looking too dissimilar from 1995 and 2012.

It's looking like there will be just enough flattening of the ridge next weekend to at least bring a temporary "cool down" (meaning sub-90*F+ temps) for the NE parts of the subforum. From what I recall, shortwaves like the one showing up on the models right now always end up breaking down the ridge more than projected in the mid/long range.

I've been back in town and will be here for at least the next week. You're welcome for the heat.

Based on the archive radar, Windsor probably saw even bigger hail. There was some good magenta color in that cell before it crossed the river.

NE Wayne County into Southern Macomb County seem like it got hit pretty good.