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mob1

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Everything posted by mob1

  1. A note of caution about the ICON, it shows anything with below freezing surface temperatures as snow (and vice versa) so it wouldn't show sleet or ice.
  2. Southern vort is MUCH further southeast
  3. At H5, it's closed over the western Carolinas vs northern GA in its last run.
  4. 06Z Euro looks a bit better, has snow at hour 90 for SC and everything looks a touch east. It's hard to extrapolate from there as many models look good at that point and then take a sharp turn N or NW. We'll see what the EPS does.
  5. Pretty ugly run, hopefully tomorrow brings better trends.
  6. There are many individual members that are near the benchmark. As a mean, it's almost comically different than the OP, it's unusual to such a large difference.
  7. The irony is that models usually do the opposite when we want an offshore storm to move West, they chase the convection to the east and collapse the best dynamics there.
  8. Canadian, moves even further NW from there
  9. It's running correctly now. There was some issue with it this morning.
  10. Man, the storm goes really far west on the GFS. Just refuses to budge. Still a nice front end thump.
  11. It's out on StormVista and you'll like the end result, moved east by a fair bit.
  12. It ends up looking REALLY good for this area (especially just west of DC), definitely shifted east.
  13. You're not comparing the same time frame. I'm talking about the NAM at the end of it's run vs the GFS and Euro at the same time (12Z Sunday). I wasn't being combative, I was replying to a specific post that showed that.
  14. It isn't, but like you said it's the NAM at 84 hours. Hope you guys get clobbered, just saying what it shows. To perhaps level the playing field, it has the 250 mb jet further south and in a better position. It's closed off a full state west (though it's probably too agressive in that regard)
  15. The heaviest. Winds at least look exciting. Good luck guys.
  16. Look how far west it's closed off at 500 mb, if you extrapolate that it probably ends up really far west. Even compared to the GFS and Euro is significantly further west.
  17. I think he meant with winds early next week, models have a rather significant wind event for coastal areas.
  18. Probably because of their lower resolution, so they tend of be more broad and smooth out things.
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