mob1
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Everything posted by mob1
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That cell near Sonora TX might have a TDS, it's a bit hard to tell but it also had a nice hook echo before ingesting some showers from the south.
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Refresher snow & obs between ~midnight and Noon Sat Feb 17 2024
mob1 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
6.3" here, definitely a nice surprise. -
2/13 Significant/Major Winter Storm Discussion & Observations
mob1 replied to Northof78's topic in New York City Metro
Ended with 5" on the nose, not bad at all. -
2/13 Significant/Major Winter Storm Discussion & Observations
mob1 replied to Northof78's topic in New York City Metro
By the time in bombs out the best dynamics quickly collapse eastward. You want the storm to slow a little once it passes our latitude and maybe have a bit more of a northerly heading as the CCB matures. I guess beggars can't be choosers, but this is not ideal for optimal dynamics. -
2/13 Significant/Major Winter Storm Discussion & Observations
mob1 replied to Northof78's topic in New York City Metro
We're also losing dynamics with each successive run. A deamplified storm may be good for our location in terms of snow in general, but you're losing good rates and dynamic cooling in an already questionable airmass. You're essentially trading a formidable snowstorm for northern areas for a slop fest in our backyards. -
2/13 Significant/Major Winter Storm Discussion & Observations
mob1 replied to Northof78's topic in New York City Metro
I'd kill for that. Given the temperatures to start, dry midlevels at the storms closest approach (that aspect is always undermodeled)- then it'll take some time to moisten the columns again and by then the storm is moving east quickly and it'll be daytime anyways so it'll likely be white rain. If NYC records an inch, I'll consider it a win. -
Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.
mob1 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Highest gust of the day just now at 47 mph. Let's see if I can crack 50.- 3,610 replies
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Wow, that is some pretty impressive damage. Images coming out of rural areas aren't much better
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Otis might just be the worst of the EPAC due to location of landfall. Hopefully, it will weaken just before the eyewall comes ashore. Regardless, that's a bad spot for flooding and population, even if it does not hold Cat 4 through landfall. It's not moving all that fast. Definitely, it's also moving a bit east of the forecast track (at least the early afternoon one) and should landfall fairly close to Acapulco. Even if it weakens as it comes ashore, the surge has already built up and the damage is done.
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A bit of a positive bust today for rain here. Most models had about half an inch through today, I'm at 1.22" with a sizeable band of moderate to heavy rain moving in.
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Looks like it's headed south of PV for now, and given its size they might be spared the worst if it doesn't take on a more notherly heading.
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Recon found peak surface winds of 108 knots, this should be a category 4 hurricane soon and still has some very warm waters to traverse.
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A friend of mine lives in Woodmere and says his entire neighborhood has 2-3 feet of standing water.
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JFK with a hair under 6 inches already (very likely over that by now).
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JFK-east will probably be the next big problem area.
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You're looking at the wrong hour. Last hour was 1.02", the 1.96" was the hour before that.
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Some showers are developing near Tom's River and moving northward, we'll see what the next few hours bring as it stopped raining here completely. I think the bands going into Queens are Nassau will have to lighten up a bit as otherwise we'll be sucking subsidence for hours.
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Queens and Nassau should get absolutely pummeled over the next few hours.
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Central Park added 1.96" in the last hour.
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How much did they have before this event? By the end of this hour they should be at around 3 inches for the event.
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LGA added 1.4" in the last hour.
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HRRR shows the lull quite well but has heavy rain redeveloping over the area this afternoon. Give the city a few more inches of rain. We'll see if it actually happens.
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