mob1

Holy crap does the GFS destroy parts of the Mid Atlantic. It's so insanely amped and tucked. I officially give up.

Both can be true. It definitely bumped west but has less precipitation.

ICON bumped NW but the RGEM went the other way. This threat is on life support (at least in terms of a significant event).

Looks awesome

Not with that attitude...

Looks the same. On a serious note, with complex phasing/capturing storms it's probably not that unusual to see changes at this timeframe since the most subtle changes earlier in the forecast period can have massive ramifications on the downstream forecast. This is a workable setup, and on top of the phasing/timing we'd want to see the ridge axis a hair further west and the closed H5 a little north than currently depicted. Along the same lines, a more northerly trajectory along the coast instead of it heading ENE.

I think you can make an argument that the CMC improved from its last run...

Plenty nice for us, but good God does it obliterate coastal areas from southern NJ to VA with snow and wind.

I would take the GFS verbatim (the surface depiction) in a heartbeat.

But they had 4 in March

Euro still not on board at 18Z

That's the AI GFS. Either way, the GEFS definitely improved.

Forget the tight precipitation field for a second - verbatim, this would be awesome.

Starts off a bit sloppy, but extrapolated from here it honestly looks pretty good. For NE, you'd want the vort to close off and capture a hair later as otherwise it could occlude south of you (think Boxing Day).

JMA

Regular Euro looks terrible

Huge hit! Has a foot plus for this subforum (and the entire state of NJ).

Most models show some snow (coating to an inch) for this. Would be nice to get a layer of clean snow before the next cold spell this weekend into early next week.

At this point we all at least experienced a solid period of real winter with a decent snowstorm and sustained cold. Would have been nice if a couple of additional snow events panned out? Absolutely! But at this point all I'm looking for is one more solid storm to bookend an acceptable winter.

GFS gives us a couple of inches from this

GFS in the early going doesn't look great

Entire ridge axis is shifted a bit east on the GFS, so even though the trough is further along in the process of going neutral, the overall look isn't great. Flatter ridge out west as well.

5-7 for the south form out to Montauk. Still honestly close enough to trend towards a few inches for the city but after 0Z tonight if it still looks like this it's likely not happening.