mob1

Backside energy is sharpening the trough quickly at 54, looks decent so far.

Ridge axis is further west on the NAM but the trough is also a bit broader.

Snow moves into the city proper at hour 78. Very nice start to the 0Z suite.

If we can clean up that funky lead energy that is elongating things to the east initially, we'd really be in business. A massive improvement overall as it is.

That backside energy is really giving it the old college try at hour 66, it might be a hair late but the run-to-run improvement aloft is rather significant.

Would love to see that backside energy aggressively phase and pump heights ahead of it as it's pretty low at this point.

At this point it's almost comical how different it is considering we're a few days out from the potential event. I'd put good money on it backing off at 18Z, maybe not a full cave right away but it's fairly likely that it'll at least take a step back.

JMA (for what it's worth)

Canadian looks pretty crappy

Canadian looks nothing like the GFS (which we could've guessed based on the RGEM).

Still plenty good for us, let's share the goods with our southern brethren.

So we're either getting this or this

Holy crap does the GFS destroy parts of the Mid Atlantic. It's so insanely amped and tucked. I officially give up.

Both can be true. It definitely bumped west but has less precipitation.

ICON bumped NW but the RGEM went the other way. This threat is on life support (at least in terms of a significant event).

Looks awesome

Not with that attitude...

Looks the same. On a serious note, with complex phasing/capturing storms it's probably not that unusual to see changes at this timeframe since the most subtle changes earlier in the forecast period can have massive ramifications on the downstream forecast. This is a workable setup, and on top of the phasing/timing we'd want to see the ridge axis a hair further west and the closed H5 a little north than currently depicted. Along the same lines, a more northerly trajectory along the coast instead of it heading ENE.

I think you can make an argument that the CMC improved from its last run...

Plenty nice for us, but good God does it obliterate coastal areas from southern NJ to VA with snow and wind.

I would take the GFS verbatim (the surface depiction) in a heartbeat.

But they had 4 in March

Euro still not on board at 18Z

That's the AI GFS. Either way, the GEFS definitely improved.