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Everything posted by mob1

  1. 3K NAM also looks far better (for severe potential) for northern AL/MS and well into TN. Meso models are definitely trending towards a deeper low and better moisture surge.
  2. 18Z NAM extends a very significant tornado threat well North of it's previous run.
  3. Some of these SRH values are pretty wild
  4. During last week's event, I kept seeing things like "level 4 severe weather event" and had no clue what it was. It's actually a really good system, numbers speak to people.
  5. If Globals are correct, it might not matter as much if things initiate a bit early as the storm is much more impressive synoptically than what the mesoscale models have. Euro and GFS have a rather impressive deepening LP (sub 990 on the Euro and just a tad higher on the GFS) with some pretty insane upper and mid level winds in the warm sector.
  6. Not bad for an 18Z sounding. As is always the case, details won't be ironed out till early Thursday morning, but there's a lot to work with here. One standout difference from the last event as that the storm will likely be strengthening as opposed to occluding, and the overall trajectory of the LP might be more conductive for a cleaner storm mode.
  7. The 0Z GFS has a very ripe environment for Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening, as do all the OZ runs so far. Timing and features will shift, but verbatim both the NAM and GFS have loaded gun soundings for parts of Mississippi rather early on Thursday.
  8. That storm approaching Glen Raven looks particularly impressive.
  9. That cell had a tight couple over High Point before it broadened as it approached areas east of Greensboro. Edit; looks pretty good again now.
  10. There may have been a small CC drop east of Charlotte but it's in a horrible radar spot. Either way, rotation still looks fairly tight.
  11. Even if it doesn't produce a tornado, those are some pretty impressive winds south of Greensboro.
  12. Rotation is definitely tightening on that as it passes Pineville.
  13. It's kind of cool that literally every cell in that line has some very broad rotation, though the environment upstream still isn't overly impressive.
  14. So far I'm unenthused with today's threat. Latest HRRR looks pretty meh and ML CAPE doesn't look all that impressive. Obviously, if things clear up it could change quickly.
  15. The cell SW of Billingsley can probably use a warning.
  16. I'd be very suprised if the Selma cell doesn't produce a tornado. Velocities are becoming very impressive.
  17. A couple of new tornado warnings up in AL, let's see what the next few hours bring.
  18. Confirmed tornado near Sweet Water.
  19. Huge CC drop on that Campbell storm
  20. The storm near Gilbertown is going nuts
  21. Rotation tightening up considerably again west of Coaling.
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