mob1
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Everything posted by mob1
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In the final few frames everything moves NE, it seems like that lakes low acts as a kicker (as opposed some of the crazy GFS runs where it actually phased in and pumped heights out ahead).
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Has some potential here, though the lead wave robbing some energy plus the base of the trough not being quite neutral yet might shunt the best dynamics east when it matters most.
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Far far far cry from what it showed yesterday, and as much as it sucks the evolution of this storm actually makes a lot of sense. There's a potent closed low and by looking at H5 without anything else it looks sexy, but by the time the dynamics come into play it's far to late for us (which is often the case) and favors areas well to our NE. On the bright side, even some mood snow would be welcome after the recent warmup.
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While closed at 500mb and a bit west, the trough is also a bit broader and the shortwave out in front robs the best dynamics. It's largely a whiff.
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Nice snow shower at my parents house (in Airmont NY)
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It's a total whiff but very intriguing aloft
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Fun look on the Euro in fantasy range. Has a good PNA spike before it collapses a bit due to another shortwave crashing into the PNW (part of the same PAC flow issues we've been dealing with for a few years) but there's all kinds of potential here (verbatim it all comes together well to our NE).
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Pleasant surprise to wake up to
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Surprisingly resilient snowpack. Some of the very exposed areas are bare, but the overwhelming majority of streets still have full snowcover.
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This is probably the next period to highlight
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I'm in Staten Island (Willowbrook)
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Finished with 4.4" here and have close to 12" for December. Not bad at all.
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I'm in Nanuet for this event (thankfully). 24 degrees and light snow falling.
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HRRR looks beautiful for the second straight run, hopefully we verify just a hair SW of what models depict. Won't take much.
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It's beautiful
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Canadian is really good as well.
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Not worried, just discussing weather. I have no control over what happens, just have lived here long enough to know how this usually goes. I'm rooting for us harder than you can imagine, it's normal to be a bit pessimistic given overall trends.
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Sorry, I meant Ant and myself. We live in southern Brooklyn and SI respectively.
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RGEM is solid
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It's the most likely outcome IMO. Snow to sleet and then maybe back to some light snow. These very sharp cutoffs on snow maps juuuuust south of us rarely (if ever) work out in our favor. 2-4" is what I'm going with now
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NAM is far from ideal but at least it improved.
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Likely the January 2016 storm. It's NYC's snowiest storm but leading up to it most models showed it missing them to the south and NAM was the first to move well north.
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It is indeed
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Yeah, looks a bit worse overall (unless you want to cherry pick a few areas that do better).
